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Sustainable water basin management requires characterization of flow regime in river networks impacted by anthropogenic pressures. Flow regime in ungauged catchments under current, future, or natural conditions can be assessed with hydrological models. Developing hydrological models is, however, resource demanding such that decision makers might revert to models that have been developed for other purposes and are made available to them (‘off-the-shelf’ models). In this study, the impact of epistemic uncertainty of flow regime indicators on flow-ecological assessment was assessed at selected stations with drainage areas ranging from about 400 to almost 90,000 km 2 in four South European basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava). For each basin, at least two models were employed. Models differed in structure, data input, spatio-temporal resolution, and calibration strategy, reflecting the variety of conditions and purposes for which they were initially developed. The uncertainty of modelled flow regime was assessed by comparing the modelled hydrologic indicators of magnitude, timing, duration, frequency and rate of change to those obtained from observed flow. The results showed that modelled flow magnitude indicators at medium and high flows were generally reliable, whereas indicators for flow timing, duration, and rate of change were affected by large uncertainties, with correlation coefficients mostly below 0.50. These findings mirror uncertainty in flow regime indicators assessed with other methods, including from measured streamflow. The large indicator uncertainty may significantly affect assessment of ecological status in freshwater systems, particularly in ungauged catchments. Finally, flow-ecological assessments proved very sensitive to reference flow regime (i.e., without anthropogenic pressures). Model simulations could not adequately capture flow regime in the reference sites comprised in this study. The lack of reliable reference conditions may seriously hamper flow-ecological assessments. This study shows the pressing need for improving assessment of natural flow regime at pan-European scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sediment management is of prior concern in the Danube Basin for provision of economic and environmental services. This study aimed at assessing current (1995–2009) sediment fluxes of the Danube Basin with SWAT model and identifying sediment budget knowledge gaps. After hydrologic calibration, hillslope gross erosion and sediment yields were broadly calibrated using ancillary data (measurements in plots and small catchments, and national and European erosion maps). Mean annual sediment concentrations (SSC) from 269 gauging stations (2968 station-year entries; median 19 mg/L, interquartile range IQR 10–36 mg/L) were used for calibrating in-stream sediments. SSC residuals (simulations-observations) median was 2 mg/L (IQR − 14; + 22 mg/L). In the validation dataset (172 gauging stations; 1457 data-entries, median 17 mg/L, IQR 10–28), median residual was 9 mg/L (IQR − 9; + 39 mg/L). Percent bias in an independent dataset of annual sediment yields (SSY; 689 data-entries in 95 stations; median 52 t/km 2 /y, IQR 20–151 t/km 2 /y) was − 21.5%. Overall, basin-wide model performance was considered satisfactory. Sediment fluxes appeared overestimated in some regions (Sava and Velika Morava), and underestimated in others (Siret-Prut and Romanian Danube), but unbiased elsewhere. According to the model, most sediments were generated by hillslope erosion. Streambank degradation contributed about 5% of sediments, and appeared important in high stream power Alpine reaches. Sediment trapping in reservoirs and floodplain deposition was probably underestimated and counterbalanced by high stream deposition. Factor analysis showed that model underestimations were correlated to Alpine and karst areas, whereas underestimations occurred in high seismicity areas of the Lower Danube. Contemporary sediment fluxes were about one third of values reported for the 1980s for several tributaries of the Middle and Lower Danube. Knowledge gaps affecting the sediment budget were identified in the contributions of some erosion processes (glacier erosion, gully erosion and mass movements), and in-stream sediment dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen losses in the form of Nitrate (N-NO3) from point and diffuse sources of pollution are recognized to be the leading cause of water body impairment throughout Europe. Implementation of conservation programs is perceived as being crucial for restoring and protecting the good ecological status of freshwater bodies. The success of conservation programs depends on the efficient identification of management solutions with respect to the envisaged environmental and economic objectives. This is a complex task, especially considering that costs and effectiveness of conservation strategies depend on their locations. We applied a multi-objective, spatially explicit analysis tool, the R-SWAT-DM framework, to search for efficient, spatially-targeted solution of Nitrate abatement in the Upper Danube Basin. The SoilWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) model served as the nonpoint source pollution estimator for current conditions as well as for scenarios with modified agricultural practices and waste water treatment upgrading. A spatially explicit optimization analysis that considered point and diffuse sources of Nitrate was performed to search for strategies that could achieve largest pollution abatement at minimum cost. The set of optimal spatial conservation strategies identified in the Basin indicated that it could be possible to reduce Nitrate loads by more than 50% while simultaneously provide a higher income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used worldwide for water quality assessment and planning. This paper aimed to assess and adapt SWAT hillslope sediment yield model (Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation, MUSLE) for applications in large basins, i.e. when spatial data is coarse and model units are large; and to develop a robust sediment calibration method for large regions. The Upper Danube Basin (132,000 km 2 ) was used as case study representative of large European Basins. The MUSLE was modified to reduce sensitivity of sediment yields to the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) size, and to identify appropriate algorithms for estimating hillslope length (L) and slope-length factor (LS). HRUs gross erosion was broadly calibrated against plot data and soil erosion map estimates. Next, mean annual SWAT suspended sediment concentrations (SSC, mg/L) were calibrated and validated against SSC data at 55 gauging stations (622 station-years). SWAT annual specific sediment yields in subbasin reaches (RSSY, t/km 2 /year) were compared to yields measured at 33 gauging stations (87 station-years). The best SWAT configuration combined a MUSLE equation modified by the introduction of a threshold area of 0.01 km 2 where L and LS were estimated with flow accumulation algorithms. For this configuration, the SSC residual interquartile was less than +/− 15 mg/L both for the calibration (1995–2004) and the validation (2005–2009) periods. The mean SSC percent bias for 1995–2009 was 24%. RSSY residual interquartile was within +/− 10 t/km 2 /year, with a mean RSSY percent bias of 12%. Residuals showed no bias with respect to drainage area, slope, or spatial distribution. The use of multiple data types at multiple sites enabled robust simulation of sediment concentrations and yields of the region. The MUSLE modifications are recommended for use in large basins. Based on SWAT simulations, we present a sediment budget for the Upper Danube Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an innovative process-based modelling approach using the SWAT model and shows its application to support the implementation of the European environmental policies in large river basins. The approach involves several pioneering modelling aspects: the inclusion of current management practices; an innovative calibration and validation methodology of streamflow and water quality; a sequential calibration starting from crop yields, followed by streamflow and nutrients; and the use of concentrations instead of loads in the calibration. The approach was applied in the Danube River Basin (800,000 km 2 ), the second largest river basin in Europe, that is under great nutrients pressure. The model was successfully calibrated and validated at multiple gauged stations for the period 1995–2009. About 70% and 61% of monthly streamflow stations reached satisfactory performances in the calibration and validation datasets respectively. N-NO 3 monthly concentrations were in good agreement with the observations, albeit SWAT could not represent accurately the spatial variability of the denitrification process. TN and TP concentrations were also well captured. Yet, local discrepancies were detected across the Basin. Baseflow and surface runoff were the main pathways of water pollution. The main sinks of TN and TP diffuse emissions were plant uptake which captured 58% of TN and 92% of TP sources, then soil retention (35% of TN and 2% of TP), riparian filter strips (2% both for TN and TP) and river retention (2% of TN and 4% of TP). Nitrates in the aquifer were estimated to be around 3% of TN sources. New reliable “state-of-the-art” knowledge of water and nutrients fluxes in the Danube Basin were thus provided to be used for assessing the impact of best management practices and for providing support to the implementation of the European Environmental Directives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]