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Abstract Kazakhstan has one of the lowest heart transplantation (HTx) rates globally, but there are no studies evaluating the outcomes of HTx. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the national HTx program over a 12-year period (2012–2023). Survival analysis of the national HTx cohort was conducted using life tables, Kaplan‒Meier curves, and Cox regression methods. Time series analysis was applied to analyze historical trends in HTx per million population (pmp) and to make future projections until 2030. The number of patients awaiting HTx in Kazakhstan was evaluated with a regional breakdown. The pmp rates of HTx ranged from 0.06 to 1.08, with no discernible increasing trend. Survival analysis revealed a rapid decrease in the first year after HTx, reaching 77.0% at 379 days, with an overall survival rate of 58.1% at the end of the follow-up period. Among the various factors analyzed, recipient blood levels of creatinine and total bilirubin before surgery, as well as the presence of infection or sepsis and the use of ECMO after surgery, were found to be significant contributors to the survival of HTx patients. There is a need for public health action to improve the HTx programme.

Abstract There is a scarcity of publications evaluating the performance of the national liver transplantation (LTx) program in Kazakhstan. Spanning from 2012 to 2023, it delves into historical trends in LTx surgeries, liver transplant centers, and the national cohort of patients awaiting LTx. Survival analysis for those awaiting LTx, using life tables and Kaplan–Meier, is complemented by time series analysis projecting developments until 2030. The overall per million population (pmp) LTx rate varied from 0.35 to 3.77, predominantly favoring living donor LTx. Liver transplant center rates ranged from 0.06 to 0.40. Of 474 LTx patients, 364 on the waiting list did not receive transplantation. The 30-day and 1-year survival rates on the waiting list were 87.0% and 68.0%, respectively. Viral hepatitis and cirrhosis prevalence steadily rose from 2015 to 2023, with projections indicating a persistent trend until 2030. Absent targeted interventions, stable pmp rates of LTx and liver transplant centers may exacerbate the backlog of unoperated patients. This study sheds light on critical aspects of the LTx landscape in Kazakhstan, emphasizing the urgency of strategic interventions to alleviate the burden on patients awaiting transplantation.