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Purpose. Powered by big data, predictive models provide individualized risk stratification to inform clinical decision-making and mitigate long-term morbidity. We describe how to transform a large institutional dataset into a real-time, interactive clinical decision support mobile user interface for risk prediction. Methods. A clinical decision point ideal for risk stratification and modification was identified. Demographics, medical comorbidities, and operative characteristics were abstracted from the electronic medical record (EMR) using ICD-9 codes. Surgery-specific predictive models were generated using regression modeling and corroborated with internal validation. A clinical support interface was designed in partnership with an app developer, followed by subsequent beta testing and clinical implementation of the final tool. Results. Individual, specialty-specific, and preoperatively actionable models incorporating clustered procedural codes were created. Using longitudinal inpatient, outpatient, and office-based data from a large multicenter health system, all patient and operative variables were weighted according to ß-coefficients. The individual risk model parameters were incorporated into specialty-specific modules and implemented into an accessible iOS/Android compatible mobile application. Conclusions. As proof of concept, we provide a framework for developing a clinical decision support mobile user interface, through the use of clinical and administrative longitudinal data. Point-of-care applications, particularly ones designed with implementation and actionability in mind, have the potential to aid clinicians in identifying and optimizing risk factors that impact the outcome of interest's occurrence, thereby enabling clinicians to take targeted risk-reduction actions. In addition, such applications may help facilitate counseling, informed consent, and shared decision-making, leading to improved patient-centered care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Early cholecystectomy (E-CCY; 8 weeks or less) after percutaneous cholecystostomy tube (PCT) placement has been associated with increased postoperative complications, but this finding has not been validated at a national level and PCT-related complications and interventions (PCT-RCIs) were not evaluated.Study Design: Adults with PCT for acute cholecystitis subsequently undergoing CCY were identified within the Nationwide Readmission Database (2010-2015) and our institution (2017-2019). Adjusted relative risks (aRRs) of postoperative complications were estimated using Poisson regression comparing E-CCY with delayed cholecystectomy (D-CCY; more than 8 weeks) within the nationwide cohort. Institutional PCT-RCIs, operative data, and postoperative outcomes were compared between E-CCY and D-CCY using chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests.Results: Of 6,145 patients from the Nationwide Readmission Database, 32.9% were D-CCY. Risk-adjusted analysis identified no differences between E-CCY and D-CCY in complications (aRR 0.98; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.07), mortality (aRR 0.88; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.81), or 30-day readmissions (aRR 1.04; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.27). Risk-adjusted analyses assessing the association of time to interval cholecystectomy (IC) with morbidity indicated an increased risk of surgical complications in the first month after PCT placement (aRR 1.17; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.33). In the institutional cohort (E-CCY, n = 23; D-CCY, n = 45), there were no statistically significant differences found in estimated blood loss, length of stay, and postoperative complications. There were increased PCT-RCIs in the D-CCY group (26.9% E-CCY vs 69% D-CCY; p < 0.01) based on our unadjusted analysis.Conclusions: Increased operative complications when IC is performed within 1 month of PCT placement and increased PCT-RCIs when IC is performed 8 weeks after PCT placement suggest that the most favorable timing for IC is between 4 and 8 weeks after PCT placement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Surgical interventions are being increasingly recognized as cost-effective global priorities, the utility of which are frequently measured using either quality-adjusted (QALY) or disability-adjusted (DALY) life years. The objectives of this study were to: (1) identify surgical cost-effectiveness studies that utilized a formulation of the QALY or DALY as a summary measure, (2) report on global patterns of QALY and DALY use in surgery and the income characteristics of the countries and/or regions involved, and (3) assess for possible associations between national/regional-income levels and the relative prominence of either measure. Study Design: PRISMA-guided systematic review of surgical cost-effectiveness studies indexed in PubMed or EMBASE prior to December 15, 2014, that used the DALY and/or QALY as a summary measure. National locations were used to classify publications based on the 2014 World Bank income stratification scheme into: low-, lower-middle-, upper-middle-, or high-income countries. Differences in QALY/DALY use were considered by income level as well as for differences in geographic location and year using descriptive statistics (two-sided Chi-squared tests, Fischer’s exact tests in cell counts <5). Results: A total of 540 publications from 128 countries met inclusion criteria, representing 825 “national studies” (regional publications included data from multiple countries). Data for 69.0% (569/825) were reported using QALYs (2.1% low-, 1.2% lower-middle-, 4.4% upper-middle-, and 92.3% high-income countries), compared to 31.0% (256/825) reported using DALYs (46.9% low-, 31.6% lower-middle-, 16.8% upper-middle-, and 4.7% high-income countries) (p<0.001). Studies from the US and the UK dominated the total number of QALY studies (49.9%) and were themselves almost exclusively QALY-based. DALY use, in contrast, was the most common in Africa and Asia. While prominent published use of QALYs (1990s) in surgical cost-effectiveness studies began approximately 10 years earlier than DALYs (2000s), the use of both measures continues to increase. Conclusion: As global prioritization of surgical interventions gains prominence, it will be important to consider the comparative implications of summary measure use. The results of this study demonstrate significant income- and geographic-based differences in the preferential utilization of the QALY and DALY for surgical cost-effectiveness studies. Such regional variation holds important implications for efforts to interpret and utilize global health policy research. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42015015991 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Racial and socioeconomic disparities are well documented in emergency general surgery (EGS) and have been highlighted as a national priority for surgical research. The aim of this study was to identify whether disparities in the EGS setting are more likely to be caused by major adverse events (MAEs) (e.g., venous thromboembolism) or failure to respond appropriately to such events. Methods A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using administrative data. EGS cases were defined using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnostic codes recommended by the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma. The data source was the National Inpatient Sample 2012-2013, which captured a 20%-stratified sample of discharges from all hospitals participating in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. The outcomes were MAEs, in-hospital mortality, and failure to rescue (FTR). Results There were 1,345,199 individual patient records available within the National Inpatient Sample. There were 201,574 admissions (15.0%) complicated by an MAE, and 12,006 of these (6.0%) resulted in death. The FTR rate was therefore 6.0%. Uninsured patients had significantly higher odds of MAEs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.19), mortality (1.28, 1.16-1.41), and FTR (1.20, 1.06-1.36) than those with private insurance. Although black patients had significantly higher odds of MAEs (adjusted odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.16), they had lower mortality (0.95, 0.90-0.99) and FTR (0.86, 0.80-0.91) than white patients. Conclusions Uninsured EGS patients are at increased risk of MAEs but also the failure of health care providers to respond effectively when such events occur. This suggests that MAEs and FTR are both potential targets for mitigating socioeconomic disparities in the setting of EGS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]