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A full‐spectrum characterization of past interglacial climate is a necessary prerequisite for the detection and attribution of climate changes during the current interglacial. Here we present a speleothem record of Asian summer monsoon (ASM) during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial (MIS 11c), from Yongxing cave, China. The record's unprecedented chronologic constraints and decadal‐scale temporal resolution allow a precise and direct comparison of ASM between the MIS 11c and the Holocene. Our data suggest that orbital‐centennial patterns of ASM were remarkably similar during both interglacial, including their pacing and structure. Notably, a multi‐millennial stronger monsoon late in MIS 11c, the "Late‐MIS 11c shift," is similar to the Late Holocene strengthening of the ASM, the "2‐Kyr shift." Thus, the multicentennial ASM weakening at the end of the Late‐MIS 11c shift could imply that the current century‐long ASM waning trend may persist into the future, if only natural forcings are considered. Plain Language Summary: The interglacial of Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11c) is generally considered to be an appropriate natural climate analog to the current interglacial, the Holocene. A new speleothem oxygen‐isotope (δ18O) record is reconstructed to characterize Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability across MIS 11c on a wide range of timescales. This new record has an unprecedented high resolution (~11 years) and precise chronology constrained by 230Th dating and annual band counting. It thus allows for the first time a precise comparison of ASM variability between MIS 11c and the Holocene. We find that the observed pattern of decreasing ASM strength during the late portion of MIS 11c was interrupted by a multi‐millennial period of stronger monsoon (the "Late‐MIS 11c shift"), which is similar to the Late Holocene increase in ASM strength (the "2‐Kyr shift"), which also occurred against a backdrop of long‐term decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Notably, the Late‐MIS 11c shift was terminated by a multicentennial ASM weakening trend, thus suggesting that the current century‐long ASM waning trend could persist into the future, provided that the anthropogenic forcing does not supersede the natural variability. Key Points: A new high‐resolution record of the Asian summer monsoon is reconstructed over Marine Isotope Stage 11 as a natural analog to the HoloceneThe Marine Isotope Stage 11 record with a chronology constrained by annual band counting shows climate variability similar to the HoloceneThe projection of the Marine Isotope Stage 11‐Holocene comparison into the future suggests a weakening trend for the Asian summer monsoon [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large array of proxy records suggests that the "4.2 ka event" marks an approximately 300-year long period (∼3.9 to 4.2 ka) of major climate change across the globe. However, the climatic manifestation of this event, including its onset, duration, and termination, remains less clear in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) domain. Here, we present new oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from a pair of speleothems (ML.1 and ML.2) from Mawmluh Cave, Meghalaya, India, that provide a high-resolution record of ISM variability during a period (∼3.78 and 4.44 ka) that fully encompasses the 4.2 ka event. The sub-annually to annually resolved ML.1 δ18O record is constrained by 18 230Th dates with an average dating error of ±13 years (2σ) and a resolution of ∼40 years, which allows us to characterize the ISM variability with unprecedented detail. The inferred pattern of ISM variability during the period contemporaneous with the 4.2 ka event shares broad similarities and key differences with the previous reconstructions of ISM from the Mawmluh Cave and other proxy records from the region. Our data suggest that the ISM intensity, in the context of the length of our record, abruptly decreased at ∼4.0 ka (∼±13 years), marking the onset of a multi-centennial period of relatively reduced ISM, which was punctuated by at least two multi-decadal droughts between ∼3.9 and 4.0 ka. The latter stands out in contrast with some previous proxy reconstructions of the ISM, in which the 4.2 ka event has been depicted as a singular multi-centennial drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The difficulty in constraining the large-scale Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability in the Chinese monsoon region (CMR) during glacial Termination II lies in our limited knowledge of the western part, primarily due to sparse paleoclimate records. To get a better picture of the ASM during Termination II, we examined a precisely dated stalagmite δ18O record between 133.1 and 127.0 kyr B.P. from Wanxiang Cave located at the ASM's northern edge in western China. In combination with published δ18O data from this cave, we have identified the 'Weak Monsoon Interval' (WMI) in the Wanxiang δ18O record and confirmed that the Heinrich 11 cold event in the North Atlantic caused the weakened ASM over the CMR via reorganization of the large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation. However, the post-WMI change in δ18O is gradual, in contrast with the abrupt shift shown in the other cave records from southern and northeastern China. The rapid northward migration of the westerly jet relative to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is probably responsible for this discrepancy. This northward-positioned westerly jet prevented the more 18O-depleted moisture from the Indian Ocean from reaching the study site. Simultaneously, it facilitated the earlier northward movement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainband that carries positive precipitation δ18O to obscure the abrupt decrease in our δ18O record. After the onset of the last interglacial, no obvious Younger Dryas (YD)-like event was recorded in Wanxiang Cave. This result is consistent with most stalagmite δ18O records in the CMR and further suggests a minimal impact of the YD-like event on ASM variabilities. The relatively large amplitude of δ18O variations observed in Wanxiang Cave between the late penultimate glacial and the last interglacial corresponds to a dominant control of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), whereas smaller δ18O amplitudes were recorded in cave sites mainly under the influence of both ISM and EASM. Therefore, we posit that the heterogeneity of the hydroclimate in the CMR during Termination II resulted from a combination of multiple processes, that is, the westerly jet, ISM and EASM, rather than a single one. • A precisely dated stalagmite from the ASM's northern edge in western China reveals ASM variability during Termination II. • Our δ18O records capture the WMI event, which corresponds well to the HS 11 period at northern high latitudes. • Gradually changes in δ18O at the onset of the last interglacial are due to the abrupt northward shift of the westerly jet. • The YD-like event did not have a far-reaching impact on ASM variabilities in the Chinese monsoon region. • Moisture sources cause the amplitude discrepancies in Chinese stalagmite δ18O records during the penultimate deglaciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asian monsoon (AM) is an important atmosphere circulation system of the global climate system, acting as a bridge across high-northern latitude and tropic climates. However, dynamical origins of AM variations during the Holocene remain unclear. Here we present stable isotope records (δ 18 O and δ 13 C) of a Holocene stalagmite from Niu Cave, central China, to address the nature and causes of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes. Our δ 18 O record shows a gradual weakening of the EASM intensity from the middle to the late Holocene, corresponding with a decrease in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and an enhancement of ENSO activity. The δ 13 C profile exhibits similar variability to δ 18 O record, suggesting that regional hydrological changes were primarily controlled by the large-scale summer monsoon circulation. Power spectrum analyses of δ 18 O and δ 13 C records show that the EASM intensity varies at a dominant periodicity of ~ 830 yr, probably correlated to an ENSO-like cycle. Furthermore, millennial-scale shifts in our records exhibit a strong correlation with that in ENSO proxies over the past 3000 years. The EASM-ENSO relationship may be related to the shifts in the mean position of Walker circulation and western North Pacific subtropical high. Our finding suggests that millennial-scale monsoon changes in the late Holocene are primarily modulated by changes in tropical ocean–atmosphere circulation, rather than variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution and precisely dated hydroclimate records in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) remain sparse beyond the Holocene, which hampers our ability to understand the hydroclimate variability in this important Indian summer monsoon (ISM) fringe area and its global teleconnection. Here we present 3-y resolution δ18O and δ13C records from a laminated stalagmite (RG-3) from Rige Cave in the southeastern TP, spanning the Younger Dryas (YD). The records allow us to precisely characterize the timing, structure, and particularly centennial-scale events within the YD, and probe the control factors of precipitation δ18O (δ18O p) in the ISM fringe area. On centennial–millennial timescales, the Rige δ18O record shows coherent pattern with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) counterpart, combined with modeled δ18O p results and spatial analysis, suggesting that δ18O p in this part of the TP is largely controlled by the large-scale atmosphere circulation (or the ISM strength), and the altitude increase in the TP may not potentially result in an opposite δ18O p pattern at least in the monsoonal TP regime. We also found significant δ13C-δ18O covariation on the centennial timescale, suggesting a coincided ISM rainfall and biomass change during the YD. In the Rige records, one weak centennial-scale ISM event (namely the intra-Allerød cold period, IACP) and three strong centennial-scale ISM events within the YD (namely A1′-A2′-A3′) were prominent and occurred between ∼12,470 and 12,310 ± 14, ∼12,210–12,090 ± 12 and ∼12,010–11,920 ± 12 y BP (before present, where present = 1950 CE), respectively. Spectral analyses of Rige records also revealed a significant ∼200-y periodicity, which is nearly in-phase with observed centennial-scale variations of the North Atlantic temperature and mid-latitude westerly-jet during that time. These observations support the hypothesis that the solar de Vries cycle (207-y) triggered the centennial-scale climate variations in high northern latitude, leading to the ISM variations via fast atmospheric processes. • Precipitation δ18O and its millennial-centennial patterns in SE Tibet Plateau are controlled by large monsoon circulations • Centennial δ13C-δ18O covariations in Younger Dryas suggest a link of the local biomass to Indian summer monsoon rainfall • Centennial Indian summer monsoon events in Younger Dryas correlate precisely to the North Atlantic climate variations • Solar de Vries cycle (207-y) triggered centennial Indian summer monsoon variations via North Atlantic climate changes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conflicting reconstructions of Holocene variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) from speleothem versus other types of proxy records have yielded widely divergent estimates of its phase relationship with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI). This apparent discrepancy has been partly attributed to the uncertainties in the climatic representation of Chinese speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) records. Here we present a composite speleothem δ18O record of the last ∼14 kyr from Shennong Cave in southeastern China and model-simulated data of rainfall and meteoric δ18O over eastern China. Our synthesis of the proxy-model data suggests that the spatial patterns in both speleothem δ18O and paleo-rainfall over eastern China during the Holocene are diverse at orbital and multi-millennial scales. Our findings imply that: 1) speleothem δ18O in the EASM regime is largely controlled by the large-scale circulation and concomitant latitudinal shifts of the monsoon rain belt; notwithstanding the heterogeneous spatiotemporal pattern of Holocene rainfall as inferred from various proxy records, a coherent orbital-scale speleothem δ18O variability across most Asian monsoon regions (except southeastern China) indeed stems from the NHSI-forced changes in overall monsoon intensity; overall monsoon intensity is not equivalent to monsoon rainfall amount but a manifestation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation; 2) divergent phase relationships with NHSI between speleothem δ18O and other proxy records are consistent with—rather than contradictory to—the NHSI forcing mechanism. Speleothem δ18O and rainfall records reflect two different aspects of the monsoon dynamics. These results may thus, largely help to reconcile the divergent views of the Holocene Asian monsoon variability. • Holocene speleothem δ18O and rainfall show heterogeneous pattern in eastern China. • East Asian speleothem δ18O reflects large-scale circulation and monsoon rain belt shift. • Divergent phases between speleothem and other proxy records are not contradictory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]