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The South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset and withdrawal have critical impacts on the climate of East Asia. However, using different reanalysis data may lead to the uncertainty of the SCSSM. This study uses reanalysis datasets including JRA‐55, ERA5, NCEP‐NCAR NCEP‐1 and NCEP‐DOE NCEP‐2 to calculate onset and withdrawal dates and index of SCSSM from 1991 to 2020, analyses the uncertainty and figures out the possible reasons. Results reveal that the four reanalysis datasets have obvious uncertainty in calculating the withdrawal date of SCSSM, with the deviation being up to 3.4 pentads. Further analysis shows that large differences in thermal conditions and lead to the uncertainties. From the perspective of precipitation, Greater uncertainty exists in the relationship between monsoon retreat and September–October precipitation, NCEP1 and NCEP2 datasets show weak correlation in southern China and Indonesia. Moreover, the uncertainty can be also found in the correlations of SCSSM with global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. JRA‐55 and ERA5 show a strong correlation of with SST in several areas, and exhibit a distinct Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) mode with monsoon onset, while NCEP‐1 and NCEP‐2 have a weaker correlation with SST anomalies than JRA‐55 or ERA5. Comparing multiple factors comprehensively, this paper concludes that JRA‐55 may be more representative in the monsoon study, followed by ERA data. In short, depending on the specific research questions, researchers can choose appropriate data sources to study the SCSSM based on the different aspects and the uncertainty also deserve our special attention when selecting the reanalysis datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In this study, we investigate the interdecadal variation characteristics of the dominant mode of summer precipitation over East Asia‐Northwest Pacific (EA‐NWP) before and after late 1990s, reveal the physical mechanism, and address its possible connection with the regional ocean warming background. Study results show that the empirical orthogonal function mode 1 (EOF1) of summer precipitation anomalies over EA‐NWP during the global ocean warming acceleration period (1979–1998) present a more significant dipole pattern between Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and tropical NWP compared with that during the global ocean warming slowdown period (1999–2012). And then we find that the anomalous dipoles of low‐level winds, geopotential height, convection, and associated wave activity fluxes over NWP significantly shift westward (eastward) and enhance (weaken) in 1979–1998 (1999–2012), which are regarded as the direct cause of the adjustment of dipole pattern between YRB and tropical NWP. Further analysis reveals that the negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical NWP are prominent (not prominent), resulting in the stronger (weaker) Pacific–Japan Teleconnection over Japan and Tropics in NWP during the period 1979–1998 (1999–2012), and ultimately lead to the change of summer precipitation EOF1 in EA‐NWP. By regressing vertical velocity, outgoing longwave radiation, relative vorticity, wave activity fluxes, and precipitation onto the NWP SST in the two periods, the impacts of the SST in the NWP on the interdecadal variation of summer precipitation EOF1 in EA‐NWP are verified. Finally, the mechanism diagram of interdecadal variation of summer precipitation is given, which can be useful for short‐term precipitation prediction of East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article uses wave activity flux and sea surface temperature (SST) to explore the mechanism of EAP-EU combined impact on summer rainfall in North Asia (NA). EAP and EU teleconnections can be divided into four categories of configuration according to their anomaly phase features. The category I (II) configurations cause rainfall in the Urals and the Okhotsk Sea and the region from Northeast China to Japan being less (more), the Lake Baikal to the Okhotsk Sea being more (less), which leads to the summer rainfall in NA mainly presenting the "− + −" ("+ − +") a tripole wavelike structure. Category I (II) configurations also show the West-East reverse anomalies of summer rainfall in northern NA and the North-South opposite anomalies in eastern NA. The EAP and EU teleconnections have an obvious correlation with the ENSO-like pattern of SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific. When warm ENSO is in the development phase, it is conducive to stimulate Rossby waves propagating eastward from the North Atlantic Ocean via the PNA teleconnection, forming the EU teleconnection across the Eurasia continent. Meanwhile, the warm summer SSTA anomalies over tropical east Pacific and IMC are conducive to the local thermal convective over Indo-Pacific warm pool and motivate the EAP teleconnection, propagating northward to mid-high latitude region. EAP and the EU teleconnections overlapped with each other, form the tripole atmospheric structure in NA, and produce relevant rainfall anomaly patterns. For the category IV of EAP-EU configuration, the warm SST anomalies in the equatorial region gradually weaken from previous winter to summer. Weak tropical east Pacific SST anomalies are conducive to excite the EU teleconnection with different wave train features against the category II, presenting a strong positive anomaly center over the Ural mountain and Baikal lake. This positive center connected with the EAP caused positive anomalies over FER resulting in the dipole pattern of atmospheric and rainfall anomalies in the summer season. The condition is opposite for the category III (I) configuration against that of category IV (II). It is also found that the influence on EAP-EU configuration caused by ENSO-like pattern of SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific has an obvious asymmetric feature that category II (I) configuration relevant SST forcing is much significant than that of category IV(III) configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the possible lag of the impact of the winter Arctic oscillation (AO) on the subsequent summer climate anomalies over East Asia and that the relationship between them may differ during different periods, the non-stationary relationship between these systems and the corresponding mechanism of connection are investigated in this study. A regime shift of the winter AO index was detected around 1988, with mean AO indices of −0.69 and 0.10 for 1958-1987 and 1988-2014, respectively, and their differences passed the 99% confidence level. After the regime shift and especially since the early 1990s, negative (positive) winter AO indices corresponds with positive (negative) height anomalies over central East Asia (CEA) during the following summer. Meanwhile, the westerly jet stream tends to be northward (southward) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is strong (weak), which contributes to the warm (cold) anomalies over central China and the significantly enhanced (reduced) rainfall over northeast China. After the early 1990s, the enhanced connection of the winter AO and the following summer height anomalies over CEA is largely due to the enhanced connection of the winter AO and the following Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall during the same period. The negative (positive) winter AO favors increasing (decreasing) rainfall over the ISM region, which triggers a positive (negative) circumglobal teleconnection (CGT), and results in significantly positive (negative) height anomalies over CEA. One way the winter AO could influence the following ISM rainfall is that the negative (positive) winter AO memories will be maintained by the positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Atlantic of the following summer, which are responsible for the La Niña (El Niño) developing phase and increases (decreases) the ISM rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The performance of summer precipitation prediction skill of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1; hereafter CSM) over the East Asia-west Pacific (EA-WP) region indicates the need for further development in order to improve model prediction skill. Two methods, namely the statistical alone prediction and the statistical and model combined prediction, are proposed to improve prediction skill. For the former, more than 2000 combinations of precursory predictors are considered in the predictive model; both most similar and dissimilar information are considered in the prediction process. For the latter, both the statistical analog information and the CSM's forecast are considered in the predictive model; this new prediction method is based on merging information from both a dynamical model and historical analogs. Cross validation of summer precipitation over EA-WP for the years 1991-2010 shows that the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of the statistical alone prediction is 0.16 and the average spatial root-mean-standard error (RMSE) is 22.7, which are much improved compared to the systematic error correction with ACC and RMSE being 0.09 and 25.0 respectively. The ACC and RMSE results from the statistical and CSM combined prediction are 0.22 and 21.8, respectively, which also indicates an improvement compare to the statistical alone prediction. Independent sample validation for the years 2011-13 indicates that the average ACCs of the statistical alone prediction and the statistical and CSM combined prediction (0.25 and 0.24) are enhanced compared to the systematic error correction (−0.02). The average RMSE is also improved from 25.0 to 23.6 and 22.7. Therefore, the two new prediction methods proposed in this paper both demonstrate the possibilities for the operational prediction of summer precipitation over EA-WP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global warming, cold winters over Northern Asia are highly correlated with the subsequent hot summers over middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley ( MLYRV). This high correlation may result from an oceanic bridge's effect in the Western Pacific. The mechanism may be described as follows: the atmospheric circulation anomalies of cold winters corresponds with a simultaneous warmer Western Pacific warm pool ( WPWP) by decreasing surface latent heat fluxes. The warmer sea surface temperature ( SST) can persist and move eastward gradually to the subsequent summer through the oceanic processes, and thus in turn affect the hot days ( HDs) over MLYRV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the 1983∼2011 CMAP data, the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions (hereafter called East Asia for short) demonstrates the '+−+' pattern before 1999 and the '−+−' pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component. However, the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different, which reveal the '+−+−' pattern before 1999 and the '−+−+' pattern afterwards. Meanwhile, the probability of improving NCC_CGCM's forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed, and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia. The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM's decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia (especially in the area of 30°N-55°N). The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area, and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas, which are better than NCC_CGCM's system error correction results (ACC is −0.01 and ACR is 49%). Besides, the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the '+−+' pattern before 1999 and the '−+−' pattern afterwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]