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With climate change, climatic optima are shifting poleward more rapidly than tree migration processes, resulting in a mismatch between species distributions and bioclimatic envelopes. Temperate hardwood tree species may take advantage of the release of climate constraints and forest management to migrate into the boreal forest. Here, we use the SORTIE‐ND forest simulation model to determine the potential for the persistence of three temperate species (sugar maple, red maple and yellow birch) when introduced at seedling stage in typical balsam fir–paper birch (BF–PB) bioclimatic domain stands of eastern Canada, quantifying the consequences on the native species composition. SORTIE‐ND is a spatially explicit, individual‐based forest stand model that simulates tree growth, regeneration and mortality. We performed a novel parameterization of the SORTIE‐ND tree growth equation allowing for the inclusion of climate modifiers on tree growth. After validating our model with data from permanent forest inventory plots, we modeled the dynamics of unharvested stands at different successional stages, as well as post‐harvest stands, after the addition of sugar maple, red maple and yellow birch seedlings at different densities. Our results show that current BF–PB domain climate conditions do not limit growth and survival of temperate species in boreal stands. Of the temperate species introduced, sugar maple had the lowest ability to grow and survive by the end of the simulation. Species assemblages of host stands were impacted by the presence of temperate species when the addition of seedlings was above 5000 temperate seedlings per hectare at the beginning of the simulation. For stands that were recently clear cut, temperate seedlings were unable to grow due to intense competition from aspen regeneration. Our results suggest that both current climate and competitive interactions between temperate species and boreal species should not impede the ability of temperate species to grow and survive in the BF–PB domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate, soil, and competition factors jointly drive tree growth variability at local and regional scale. However, the comprehensive interaction of these factors and their combined effects on tree responses within their environment remains poorly explored in current research. Using a detailed forest inventory dataset in Québec, we examined tree growth of balsam fir (Abies balsamea Mill), black spruce (Picea mariana Mill), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marshall), and yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton), as a function of competition for light and space with neighboring trees, climate and soil-related variables. Interactions between all these variables were considered in a Bayesian model predicting tree growth. The amount of light received by trees was the main variables explaining tree growth except for coniferous tree species which was influenced mostly by climate variables. Among the studied species, only red maple and white birch exhibited increased growth under warmer conditions. Intraspecific competition had strong species-specific impacts, varying from negative effects for balsam fir, to positive for red maple and yellow birch. Interactions between climate, soil, and competition played a crucial role in shaping growth patterns, especially for sugar maple, and black spruce that strongly responded to a combination of climate and competition factors. In general, tree growth also increased with the soil cation-exchange capacity (CEC), especially when higher CEC is coupled with higher temperatures and precipitation, except for black spruce. While anticipated climate conditions in Quebec, even under the most optimistic scenarios, will have a strong negative impact on the tree growth of most tree species, management can mitigate this impact by promoting tree diversity with more complex stand structures. [Display omitted] • Shade emerges as a prominent factor explaining tree growth for deciduous tree species, while climate plays a significant role for conifers. • Competition shape tree growth responses within climate and soil gradients but the direction and strength varies with the tree species. • Soil-climate interactions impact tree growth; red maple show positive growth rate to higher temperatures but declines under low soil fertility. • Even in optimistic climate scenarios, climate change may impact tree growth, especially for black spruce, which has its southern limit in Quebec. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]