Lai, Jianbo, Zhu, Jun, Guo, Yukun, Xie, Yakun, Hu, Ya, and Wang, Ping
Monitoring and predicting ground settlement during tunnel construction is of paramount importance for ensuring the safety of tunnel construction and the stability of the surrounding environment. Existing studies on settlement prediction mainly rely on single settlement values and often overlook temporal characteristics, and that prediction models struggle to capture the nonlinear trends in actual settlements, leading to suboptimal predictive accuracy. In this study, based on the monitoring data of settlement deformation in a subway section of a certain city, a multi-factor-driven prediction method for surface settlement in subway tunnel excavation using the Informer model is proposed. The predictive accuracy is compared and analyzed with other models, including CNN-LSTM, LSTM, SARIMA, and Transformer. The results indicate that: (1) The Informer model outperforms CNN-LSTM, LSTM, SARIMA, and Transformer in terms of RMSE, MAE, and MAPE evaluation metrics, demonstrating that the Informer model exhibits smaller average prediction errors in forecasting surface settlement during subway construction. (2) Compared to LSTM, CNN-LSTM, Transformer, and other models, the Informer model can better capture the temporal characteristics and long-term forecasting ability of settlement data, while the SARIMA model fails to capture the temporal features in actual settlement data effectively. (3) Considering the influencing factors of temperature and soil pressure has a positive impact on the predictive performance of the Informer model, and the relationship between soil pressure information in the case study construction area and surface settlement is more closely associated. In summary, the Informer model, which takes into account temporal characteristics and multiple influencing factors, demonstrates good predictive ability for nonlinear settlement data. It provides a new method for analyzing settlement trends caused by subway tunnel excavation under complex environmental conditions, facilitating efficient and accurate assessment. It also offers objective data support for short-term bridge construction scheduling and long-term construction planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]