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The Barents Sea is a key region in the Earth System and is home to highly productive marine resources. An integrated approach for strategic sustainable management of marine resources in such shelf-sea marine ecosystems requires, among many other aspects, a robust understanding of the impact of climate on local oceanic conditions. Here, using a combined observational and modelling approach, we show that decadal climatic trends associated with the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG), within the period 1960–2019, have an impact on oceanic conditions in the Barents Sea. We relate hydrographic conditions in the Barents Sea to the decadal variability of the SPG through its impact on the Atlantic Inflow via the Faroe-Shetland Channel and the Barents Sea Opening. When the SPG warms, an increase in the throughput of subtropical waters across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge is followed by an increase in the volume of Atlantic Water entering the Barents Sea. These changes are reflected in pronounced decadal trends in the sea-ice concentration and primary production in the Barents Sea, which follow the SPG after an advective delay of 4–5 years. This impact of the SPG on sea-ice and primary production provides a dynamical explanation of the recently reported 7-year lagged statistical relationship between SPG and cod (Gadus morhua) biomass in the Barents Sea. Overall, these results highlight a potential for decadal ecosystem predictions in the Barents Sea.

While the influence of the subpolar gyre (SPG) on thermohaline variability in the eastern North Atlantic is well documented, the extent and timescale of the influence of the SPG on North Sea is not well understood. This is primarily because earlier investigations on the causes of variability in the North Sea water properties mostly focused on the role of atmosphere and deployed regional models. Here using a historical simulation with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM), we investigate circulation and water mass variability in key regions, namely, the Rockall Trough and the Faroe‐Scotland Channel, which link the North Atlantic to the North Sea. We find that salinity covaries with advective lags in these three regions and that the northern North Sea salinity follows the Rockall Trough with a lag of 1 year. We show that recurring and persistent excursions of salinity anomalies into the northern North Sea are related to the SPG strength and not to the local acceleration of the inflow. Furthermore, we illustrate that the SPG signal is more pronounced in salinity than in temperature and that this simulated SPG signal has a period of 30–40 years. Overall, our study suggests that, at low frequency, water mass variability originating in the North Atlantic dominates changes in the North Sea water properties over those due to local wind‐driven volume transport. Plain Language Summary: Earlier investigations on the causes of variability in the North Sea water properties have mostly focused on the role of the atmosphere. This follows from the general idea that shallowness of the North Sea makes it more responsive to wind speed and direction than the deeper ocean. In the present contribution, we identify variability in North Sea water properties other than that induced by the atmosphere. For our analysis, we use a historical simulation with a global coupled model for two reasons: (a) In the model, the connections between North Atlantic and North Sea are represented, which would not be the case in a regional model, and (b) the model provides a long continuous time series of water properties, which is not available from spatially and temporally scarce observations. We find that the strength of subpolar gyre (SPG) has an impact on the salinity of the North Sea. When the SPG is weak (strong), water from the subtropical (subpolar) North Atlantic dominates the inflow into the North Sea and thus increasing (decreasing) the salinity. This modulation of inflow properties happens at decadal periods and beyond and is largely independent of the amount of Atlantic water entering the North Sea. Key Points: Low frequency open ocean impact on the North Sea is revealed in a global coupled modelThe properties of Atlantic inflow to the North Sea follow changes in subpolar gyre strength, while the total inflow is wind drivenThe subpolar gyre signal in the Faroe‐Shetland Channel and the North Sea is more pronounced in salinity than in temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Larsen, K. M. H., Hátún, H., Hansen, B., and Kristiansen, R. 2012. Atlantic water in the Faroe area: sources and variability. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 802–808.The inflow of Atlantic water (AW) across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge and into the Nordic Seas controls both physical and biological conditions in the northeastern Atlantic through its transport of heat, salt, and other properties. The two main branches of this flow pass through the Iceland–Faroe Gap and the Faroe–Shetland Channel, respectively. Regular monitoring along four standard sections crossing these flows provides time-series of the AW temperature and salinity variability since the late 1980s. The analysis of these series presented shows a persistent increasing trend in both temperature and salinity, modulated by smaller subdecadal oscillations. Using supplementary data sources, the previously established link between the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic and Atlantic inflow properties is supported. Salinity is also impacted by large changes in the Bay of Biscay source waters, and upstream air–sea heat fluxes modulate temperature. Relationships between changes in transport and associated residence time, and the modifying strength of the air–sea interaction and mixing, are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]