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Lifetime risk (LTR) evaluates the absolute risk of developing a disease during the remainder of one's life. It can be a useful tool, enabling the general public to easily understand their risk of stroke. No study has been performed to determine the LTR of cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) with or without hypertension; therefore, we performed this study in an Asian population. We followed 1525 participants (66.0% women; age 63.1 years) in the general population of Ohasama, Japan. We defined CKD as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 and/or proteinuria. Hypertension was defined as a systolic/diastolic blood pressure ≥140/≥90 mmHg and/or the use of antihypertensive medication. We calculated the sex-specific LTR of stroke adjusted for the competing risk of death. During the mean follow-up period of 16.5 years, a first stroke occurred in 238 participants. The 10-year risk of stroke at the age of 45 years was 0.0% for men and women. The LTRs of stroke at the index age of 45 years (men/women) were 20.9%/14.5% for participants without CKD and hypertension, 34.1%/29.8% for those with CKD but not hypertension, 37.9%/27.3% for those with hypertension but not CKD, and 38.4%/36.4% for those with CKD and hypertension. The LTRs of stroke tended to be higher in younger participants than in older participants with CKD and/or hypertension. CKD contributed to the LTR of stroke, as did hypertension. The prevention of CKD and hypertension can reduce the LTR of stroke, especially in young populations.

Background: Aggregation of platelets is a trigger for additional development of larger thrombi. This study aimed to identify factors that may affect platelet aggregability and their role in clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke., Methods: Consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients (n = 352) who were transferred within 24 hours after its onset were enrolled. Peripheral venous blood was sampled to measure platelet aggregability and other parameters., Results: Mean values of spontaneous small-sized platelet aggregates and collagen- or adenosine diphosphate (ADP)-induced large-sized aggregates were elevated in acute ischemic stroke. In atherothrombotic stroke (n = 178), collagen and ADP-induced large-sized aggregates were positively correlated with HbA1c, respectively. High incidence of the modified Rankin Scales (mRS) 5-6 at discharge was associated with diabetes complication (odds ratio [OR] 8.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32-57.56). The proportion of patients who were functionally independent (the mRS 0-2) at discharge was lower in the middle tertile of collagen and ADP-induced large-sized aggregates than their low tertile (OR 2.46, 95% CI 1.09-5.58; OR 2.43, 95% CI 1.05-5.59, respectively). Prestroke administration of aspirin recovered the proportion of independence at discharge (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.06-0.99), and ameliorated incidence of the mRS 5-6. On logistic regression analysis, diabetes, HbA1c, collagen-induced large-sized aggregates, and prestroke administration of aspirin remained independent predictors of clinical outcomes in atherothrombotic stroke. In cardioembolic and lacunar stroke, no relations with clinical outcomes were found., Conclusions: High plasma level of HbA1c is involved in enhanced platelet aggregability in acute atherothrombotic stroke patients, and prestroke administration of aspirin may be beneficial to clinical outcomes., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Backgrounds: Spontaneous micro-aggregation of platelets (SMAP) is frequently observed in stroke patients and is a trigger for the additional development of larger thrombi. We tested the hypothesis that SMAP may predict clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients., Methods and Results: Consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients (n = 358) who were transferred to our hospital within 24 hours after its onset were enrolled. Peripheral venous blood was sampled to measure various parameters when they arrived. SMAP was correlated with plasma brain natriuretic peptide and diastolic blood pressure positively, and with serum albumin and body weight negatively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that only serum albumin was an independent predictor of the SMAP (P = .0023). The proportion of patients who were functionally independent (score 0-2 on the modified Rankin Scales) at discharge was lower in the third tertile of SMAP (higher level) as compared with the first and the second tertiles in ischemic stroke (odds ratio [OR], 5.76; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 3.31-10.05; P < .0001) and atherothrombotic stroke (P = .02 by chi-square test). The lower proportion of patients achieving independence was found in the first tertile of serum albumin (lower level) as compared with the second and third tertiles in ischemic (OR, 4.60; 95% CI, 2.66-7.95; P < .0001), atherothrombotic, and cardioembolic stroke (P = .004 and P < .0001 by chi-square test). On logistic regression analysis, SMAP and serum albumin remained independent predictors of poor outcome in ischemic stroke., Conclusions: SMAP within 24 hours after stroke onset is a novel independent predictor of clinical outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients., (Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We compared the predictive power for a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) of four home blood pressure (BP) indices (systolic BP, diastolic BP, mean BP, and pulse pressure (PP)) obtained at baseline before treatment and during the on-treatment follow-up period in 3147 patients with essential hypertension (women: 50.1%, mean age: 59.5 years). Associations between MACE and each index were determined using Cox proportional hazard models and the likelihood ratio (LR) test. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 46 patients experienced MACE, which was a composite of cardiovascular death, non-fatal stroke, and non-fatal myocardial infarction. The LR test showed that systolic, diastolic, and mean BP during follow-up was more closely associated with cardiovascular risk than the corresponding indices at baseline (LR χ 2 for baseline versus follow-up: systolic BP, (6.0, P = 0.014) versus (11.3, P = 0.0008); diastolic BP, (0.4, P = 0.53) versus (12.4, P = 0.0004); mean BP, (3.2, P = 0.074) versus (15.0, P = 0.0001)), whereas neither PP at baseline nor that during follow-up was significantly associated with MACE risk. Among home BP indices during follow-up, mean BP further improved prediction models in which systolic or diastolic BP was already included (P ≤ 0.042), but neither systolic nor diastolic BP improved models with mean BP (P = 0.80). In addition to home systolic and diastolic BP, mean BP during follow-up period provides essential information in predicting future cardiovascular diseases, whereas its utilization should be further assessed by an intervention trial targeting mean BP levels.

Objective: Several observational studies have found modifying effects of functional status on the association between conventional office blood pressure (BP) and adverse outcomes. We aimed to examine whether the association between higher BP and stroke was attenuated or inverted among older adults with impaired function using self-measured home BP measurements., Methods: We followed 501 Japanese community-dwelling adults aged at least 60 years (mean age, 68.6 years) with no history of stroke. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for 1-SD increase in home BP and office BP measurements were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model. Functional status was assessed by self-reported physical function., Results: During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, first strokes were observed in 47 participants. Higher home SBP, but not office SBP, was significantly associated with increased risk of stroke among both 349 participants with normal physical function and 152 participants with impaired physical function [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 14.4-mmHg increase: 1.74 (1.12-2.69) and 1.77 (1.06-2.94), respectively], with no significant interaction for physical function (P = 0.56). Higher home DBP, but not office DBP, was also significantly associated with increased risk of stroke (P ≤ 0.029) irrespective of physical function (all P > 0.05 for interaction). Neither home BP nor office BP was significantly associated with all-cause mortality irrespective of physical function., Conclusion: Higher home BP was associated with increased risk of stroke even among those with impaired physical function. Measurements of home BP would be useful for stroke prevention, even after physical function decline.

Aim: Few studies have addressed stroke risk factors in older populations, particularly among the old-old. We examined differences in traditional risk factors for stroke among the old-old compared with the young-old in community-dwelling Japanese adults., Methods: We followed 2,065 residents aged ≥ 60 years who had no history of stroke. Traditional risk factors for stroke were obtained from a self-administered questionnaire at baseline. We classified participants into two age categories, 60-74 years (n=1,502) and ≥ 75 years (n=563), and assessed whether traditional risk factors were differentially associated with stroke incidence according to age category. Hazard ratios were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for confounding factors and competing risk of death., Results: During a median follow-up of 12.8 and 7.9 years, 163 and 111 participants aged 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively, developed a first stroke. Hypertension was consistently associated with increased risk of stroke, regardless of age category. Diabetes mellitus was associated with increased risk of stroke in those aged 60-74 years (hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.25), but not in those aged ≥ 75 years (hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-1.29), with significant interaction by age (P=0.035). No traditional risk factor other than hypertension was associated with stroke among those aged ≥ 75 years., Conclusion: Those with hypertension had significantly higher stroke risk among old people, while diabetes mellitus was differentially associated with stroke according to age category. Our findings indicate the importance of different prevention strategies for stroke incidence according to age category.

Background and Purpose: Functional capacity is a predictor, as well as a consequence, of stroke. However, little research has been done to examine whether higher-level functional capacity above basic activities of daily living is a predictor of stroke., Methods: We followed 1493 Japanese community-dwelling adults aged ≥60 years (mean age, 70.1 years) who were independent in basic activities of daily living and had no history of stroke. Baseline data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Higher-level functional capacity was measured using the total score and 3 subscales (instrumental activities of daily living, intellectual activity, and social role) derived from the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence. Adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by the Cox proportional hazards model., Results: During a mean follow-up of 10.4 years, 191 participants developed a first stroke. Impaired higher-level functional capacity based on total score of the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence was significantly associated with stroke (hazard ratio, 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.33). Among the 3 subscales, only intellectual activity was significantly associated with stroke (hazard ratio, 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-2.22). Social role was significantly associated with stroke only among those aged ≥75 years (hazard ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-2.98)., Conclusions: Impaired higher-level functional capacity, especially in the domain of intellectual activity, was a predictor of stroke, even among community-dwelling older adults with independent basic activities of daily living at baseline. Monitoring of higher-level functional capacity might be useful to detect those at higher risk of developing stroke in the future., (© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: The association between stroke and menstrual factors, for example, age at the time of menarche and age at the time of menopause, has not been well studied so far and the findings are inconsistent. We sought to examine this association in Japanese postmenopausal women., Methods: We followed 1,412 postmenopausal women aged ≥35 without a history of stroke in Ohasama, Japan. Baseline data were collected using a self-administered questionnaire. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of each menstrual factor for stroke incidence were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model., Results: During a median follow-up of 12.8 years, 143 participants developed a stroke for the first time. Women aged ≤13 at the time of menarche had a significantly higher probability of encountering a stroke incidence in their lives compared with women aged 15 at the time of menarche (HR 1.83; 95% CI 1.04-3.22). The same was also true for cerebral infarction (HR 2.34; 95% CI 1.18-4.66). While early menopause was not significantly associated with stroke incidence, women aged ≤45 at the time of menopause faced a higher risk for cerebral infarction compared with women aged 50 years at the time of menopause (HR 3.25; 95% CI 1.54-6.86)., Conclusions: Early menarche and its associated features might be a useful tool for future intervention strategies targeting modifiable factors that trigger menstrual onset., (© 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

The prognostic significance of white-coat hypertension (WCHT) is controversial, and different findings on self-measured home measurements and 24-h ambulatory monitoring make identifying WCHT difficult. We examined whether individuals with partially or completely defined WCHT, as well as masked hypertension, as determined by different out-of-office blood pressure measurements, have a distinct long-term stroke risk. We followed 1464 participants (31.8% men; mean age, 60.6±10.8 years) in the general population of Ohasama, Japan, for a median of 17.1 years. A first stroke occurred in 212 subjects. Using sustained normal blood pressure (events/n=61/776) as a reference, adjusted hazard ratios for stroke (95% confidence intervals; events/n) were 1.38 (0.82-2.32; 19/137) for complete WCHT (isolated office hypertension), 2.16 (1.36-3.43; 29/117) for partial WCHT (either home or ambulatory normotension with office hypertension), 2.05 (1.24-3.41; 23/100) for complete masked hypertension (both home and ambulatory hypertension with office normotension), 2.08 (1.37-3.16; 38/180) for partial masked hypertension (either home or ambulatory hypertension with office normotension), and 2.46 (1.61-3.77; 42/154) for sustained hypertension. When partial WCHT and partial masked hypertension groups were further divided into participants only with home hypertension and those only with ambulatory hypertension, all subgroups had a significantly higher stroke risk (adjusted hazard ratio ≥1.84, P≤0.04). In conclusion, impacts of partial WCHT as well as partial masked hypertension for long-term stroke risk were comparable to those of complete masked hypertension or sustained hypertension. We need both home and 24-h ambulatory blood pressure measurements to evaluate stroke risk accurately., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Hypertension and smoking independently contribute to the risk of stroke. Our objective was to investigate home blood pressure (HBP) levels, day-by-day BP variability, and smoking in the prediction of stroke in Japanese men., Methods: In this study, 902 men (mean age, 58.6 years) without a past history of stroke were evaluated. HBP was measured once every morning for 4 weeks. Day-by-day BP variability was defined as within-subject standard deviations (SD) of HBP. Smoking history was obtained from a standardized questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke were examined by Cox regression model, with adjustment for possible confounders., Results: During 13.1 years (median) of follow-up, 89 cerebral infarctions, 28 intracranial hemorrhages, and six other strokes occurred. Systolic HBP levels (HR = 1.59 per 14.6 mm Hg increase, P < 0.0001) and variability (HR = 1.26 per 3.1 mm Hg increase, P = 0.03) of +1 between-subject SD were significantly associated with cerebral infarction. The relationship between HBP and cerebral infarction differed with smoking status (interaction P = 0.021 and 0.017 for systolic level and variability, respectively). In analyses stratified according to smoking, systolic level (HR = 1.78, P < 0.0001) and variability (HR = 1.38, P = 0.006) were significantly associated with cerebral infarction in ever smokers (N = 511), but not in never smokers (N = 391; P ≥ 0.6 for both). No significant association was found between smoking and the risk of intracranial hemorrhage., Conclusions: In ever smokers, both HBP levels and variability are significantly associated with the risk of cerebral infarction. Our findings further validate the benefit of smoking cessation in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD), especially cerebral infarction.

Background: Aldosterone is thought to have deleterious effects on the cardiovascular system. The aldosterone-to-renin ratio (ARR) is more reproducible than aldosterone levels alone and could be an index for inappropriate aldosterone secretion or activity. We previously reported the apparent relation between ARR and hypertension in subjects with high sodium intake. This prospective study investigated the risk of ARR for a first stroke in a general population stratified by sodium intake., Methods: We obtained plasma renin activity (PRA) and plasma aldosterone concentrations (PAC) for 883 participants aged ≥ 35 years not receiving antihypertensive treatment in the general population of Ohasama (mean age: 59.0 ± 11.3 years; 65.6% women)., Results: Over a mean of 10.9 follow-up years, 45 strokes occurred. The median PRA, PAC, and ARR were 1.2 ng/ml/h, 6.4 ng/dl, and 5.3 ng/dl per ng/ml/h, respectively. Using Cox regression, we computed hazard ratios adjusted for sex, age, body mass index (BMI), and systolic blood pressure. No association between logARR and stroke was observed in subjects overall. However, in subjects with high sodium intake (≥ median of 4,058 mg/day (salt equivalent, 10.5 g/day)), each 1 s.d. increase in logARR was associated with an increased hazard ratio for stroke (hazard ratio: 1.49, P = 0.04). No significant association was observed in subjects with low sodium intake (P = 0.7). When we repeated all the analyses using logPRA or logPAC, no significant associations were found., Conclusion: These results suggest that high ARR, that is, relative aldosterone excess, is a predictor for stroke under conditions of high sodium intake.

Background: Arterial stiffness is a stroke risk factor. The home arterial stiffness index (HASI) can be calculated from self-measured blood pressure using the same formula as the calculation of ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI)., Methods: In 2,377 inhabitants (baseline age, 35-96 years) without a history of stroke, home blood pressure was measured once every morning for 26 days (median). HASI was defined as 1 minus the regression slope of diastolic over systolic on home blood pressure in individual subjects. The standardized hazard ratio (HR) of HASI was computed for cerebral infarction, while adjusting for sex, age, body mass index, pulse pressure, mean arterial pressure, heart rate, day-by-day variability of systolic blood pressure, smoking and drinking habits, serum total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive treatment., Results: A total of 191 (8.0%) cerebral infarctions and 75 (3.2%) hemorrhagic strokes occurred over a median of 13.8 years. Mean ± s.d. of HASI was 0.60 ± 0.23 units. An increase in HASI of 1 s.d. was associated with an increased HR for cerebral infarction in all subjects (1.19, P = 0.034), men (1.37, P = 0.002), and normotensive subjects (1.46, P = 0.006), but not in women or hypertensive patients (P > 0.56). For hemorrhagic stroke, HASI was not prognostic., Conclusions: HASI predicted cerebral infarction independent of pulse pressure and other risk factors in men and normotensive subjects. One important role of home blood pressure measurement is early recognition of onset of hypertension in normotensive subjects who are at risk of developing hypertension. HASI provides additional benefits for such subjects.

Background: Several observational studies have shown that treated hypertensives are characterized as having worse prognosis than nonhypertensives. However, there is little evidence based on home blood pressure (home BP) measurement. We compare the risk of stroke between untreated individuals and those taking antihypertensive medication based on home BP and casual-screening BP (casual BP) in the general population., Methods: The study included 1,690 untreated and 700 treated subjects aged >or=35 years. We measured home BP and casual BP at the beginning of the study. The risk of first stroke was examined by using the Cox proportional hazards model., Results: During 11.9 years of follow-up, we observed 242 first-time stroke cases. Treated subjects had significantly higher risk for stroke than untreated subjects based on home BP (relative hazard (RH) = 1.48) as well as on casual BP (RH = 1.78), adjusted for systolic BP values and characteristics. When subjects were classified into six categories based on BP (optimal, normal, high normal, and grade 1-3 hypertension), RHs in treated hypertensives linearly increased (trend P < 0.01) based on home BP. However, there was no consistent association for casual BP (trend P: not significant) in treated subjects. Stroke risk was linearly increased regardless of the BP information source in untreated subjects (home BP: trend P < 0.01, casual BP: trend P < 0.01)., Conclusion: The results suggest a strong association between elevated home BP and increased risk of stroke. Home BP is a better tool to assess stroke risk, especially in treated hypertensives.

Background and Purpose: The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to investigate associations between stroke and blood pressure (BP) indices (systolic BP [SBP], diastolic BP [DBP], mean BP, and pulse pressure [PP]) determined by home BP measurement., Methods: Associations between stroke and BP indices were examined in a rural Japanese population. Home BP data of 2369 subjects (40% men) > or =35 years of age (mean, 59 years) without a history of stroke were obtained. Associations between stroke and each index were determined using Cox proportional hazards regression and the likelihood ratio (LR) test., Results: During follow-up (mean, 11.7 years), 238 strokes occurred. The LR test showed that SBP and mean BP were significantly more strongly associated with total and ischemic stroke than DBP and PP (LR chi2 > or =9.3, P<0.01 for SBP/mean BP, LR chi2 < or =3.8, P> or =0.05 for DBP/PP). SBP tended to be more strongly associated with total/ischemic stroke than mean BP (LR chi2=3.8, P=0.05 for SBP, LR chi2 < or =0.2, P>0.6 for mean BP). PP tended to be slightly more strongly associated with ischemic stroke than DBP (LR chi2=7.5, P<0.01 for DBP, LR chi(2)=9.3, P<0.01 for PP), whereas DBP was significantly more strongly associated with hemorrhagic stroke than PP (LR chi2=9.2, P<0.01 for DBP, LR chi2=2.5, P=0.01 for PP)., Conclusions: PP obtained from home BP measurements was weakly associated with stroke, whereas SBP showed the strongest association. Additionally, DBP and PP may be associated with different stroke types.

Objective: To compare the predictive power of home blood pressure (HBP) measured in the evening (E-HBP) and that of casual screening BP (CBP) for stroke risk in relation to the number of E-HBP measurements., Methods: We obtained E-HBP (measured once in the evening just before going to bed for 4 weeks) and CBP (measured twice during the health checkup) from 2234 Japanese participants aged >or=35 years who had no history of a previous stroke. The participants were followed-up for a median duration of 11.9 years. The multivariate adjusted relative hazard (RH) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each 10 mmHg (systolic) or 5 mmHg (diastolic) increase in BP was determined by Cox regression model., Results: There were 226 incidences of stroke. Even the initial E-HBP values significantly predicted future stroke events (systolic RH=1.19, 95% CI=1.11-1.28; diastolic RH=1.12, 95% CI=1.06-1.19), and the predictive power of E-HBP increased progressively with the increased number of measurements. When initial systolic E-HBP and systolic CBP values were simultaneously included into the Cox model, only initial E-HBP was significantly related with stroke risk (E-HBP RH=1.17, 95% CI=1.08-1.26; CBP RH=1.07, 95% CI=0.99-1.15)., Conclusion: E-HBP has a stronger predictive power than CBP regardless of the number of measurements. Our findings emphasize the important clinical significance of E-HBP over CBP, even though the measurement conditions of E-HBP are generally less strict than that of morning HBP measurements.

Objective: To evaluate the association between stroke risk and blood pressure (BP) levels with regard to the usage of antihypertensive medications., Methods: From the Japan arteriosclerosis longitudinal study, 11,371 participants from the four population-based cohort studies (aged 40-89) were followed up for a mean of 9.5 years. A Poisson regression model, adjusting for possible confounding factors, was used to investigate the risk of first stroke among six BP-based categories (BP defined according to recent guidelines), in relation to the use of antihypertensive medications., Results: There were 324 incident cases of first stroke. Among untreated groups, the relative hazard increased linearly with the elevation of BP grade (trend P = 0.0001). The untreated group with normal BP had a significantly higher stroke risk [relative hazard 2.09, 95% confidence interval 1.09-4.01] than the untreated group with optimal BP. There was no stepwise increase in stroke risk observed among treated groups (trend P = 0.1). The stroke risk among treated groups, even among those with optimal BP (relative hazard 4.10, 95% confidence interval 1.17-14.4), was significantly higher than that in the untreated groups with the same BP level., Conclusion: Treated individuals with optimal BP had a higher stroke risk than untreated ones with optimal BP. Healthcare providers need to be vigilant for residual cardiovascular risks in treated hypertensive patients.

Recent guidelines for the treatment of hypertension have all emphasized the importance of self-blood pressure (BP) measurements at home (home BP) in clinical applications of practice, research, and epidemiology. In the Ohasama study, a cohort study based on home BP, we have demonstrated several important findings to be incorporated in those guidelines. We demonstrated that home BP more accurately and reliably reflect target organ damage and the prognosis of cardiovascular disease than conventional BP, whereas the predictive value of home BP increased progressively with the number of measurements. Even the initial-first home BP values (one measurement) showed a significantly greater relation with stroke risk than conventional BP values (mean of two measurements). Home BP in the morning (morning BP) and in the evening (evening BP) provide equally useful information for stroke risk, whereas morning hypertension, which is that specifically observed only in the morning, might be a good predicator of stroke, particularly among individuals using anti-hypertensive medication. Home BP increased the predictive power of categorizations of guidelines compared with conventional BP. Heart rate values assessed at home using a device designed for home BP measurement (home heart rate) was significantly associated with the risk of cardiovascular mortality, independent of home BP. We expect that continuous follow-up and further analysis of the Ohasama data would contribute to producing further important findings worth incorporating in future hypertension guidelines.

Background: To investigate the risk of stroke in subjects with isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH), and combined systolic and diastolic hypertension (SDH) in a Japanese general population, we used 24-h ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and casual-screening blood-pressure (CBP) readings., Methods: Subtypes of hypertension were defined based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) >135 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) >80 mm Hg for 24-h ABP, and SBP >140 mm Hg or DBP >90 mm Hg for CBP. We obtained 24-h ABP and CBP data for 1271 (40% male) subjects aged > or =40 years (mean age, 61 years) without a history of symptomatic stroke; their stroke-free survival was then determined. The prognostic significance of each subtype of hypertension was determined by Cox proportional hazard analysis., Results: There were 113 symptomatic strokes during follow-up (mean time, 11 years). Compared with normotension, among the hypertension subtypes determined by 24-h ABP, the adjusted relative hazards (RHs) of stroke were 2.24 for ISH (P = .002) and 2.39 for SDH (P = .0004). The association was less marked among subtypes determined by CBP (RH = 1.40 and P = .13 for ISH; RH = 2.07 and P = .017 for SDH). The IDH group was excluded from the Cox analysis because both the prevalence and the number of events were low in this group., Conclusions: Isolated systolic hypertension, as determined by 24-h ABP measurements, was associated with a high risk of stroke, similar to that found in SDH subjects; this suggests that the prognosis of hypertensive patients would be improved by focusing treatment on 24-h systolic ABP.

Background: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) has been shown to be a risk factor for mortality as well as for morbidity such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. However, in the context of CVD events, there is a difference in the incidence of cardiac and stroke events between Western and Asian populations. Although a high prevalence of stroke is a characteristic feature in Japanese populations, it is unclear whether CKD constitutes a risk for stroke events., Methods: To clarify this issue, we estimated creatinine clearance and obtained dipstick tests from spot-urine samples in 1977 subjects (mean 62.9-years-old, men/women: 731/1246) from a general Japanese population. First symptomatic stroke events and all-cause mortality were analysed according to stratification of kidney function and by positive tests for macroalbuminuria using a Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusted for possible confounding factors., Results: During the observation period (mean 7.76 years), we recorded 112 events of first symptomatic stroke and 187 deaths (58 cases due to CVD). After adjustment for all variables, we found that increases in relative hazard (RH) for the first symptomatic stroke events were associated with decreasing kidney function (RH, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.24-7.84 in Ccr<40 ml/min, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.06-3.75 in Ccr 40-70 ml/min, ref in Ccr>70 ml/min) and with the presence of macroalbuminuria (RH, 1.4; 95% CI, 0.80-2.41)., Conclusion: Decreased kidney function increased the risk of first symptomatic stroke events in a general Japanese population. The high prevalence of stroke in this population prompts the need for greater public awareness about risks for CKD.

Background and Purpose: Ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI) and pulse pressure (PP) are indexes of arterial stiffness and can be computed from 24-hour blood pressure recordings. We investigated the prognostic value of AASI and PP in relation to fatal outcomes., Methods: In 1542 Ohasama residents (baseline age, 40 to 93 years; 63.4% women), we applied Cox regression to relate mortality to AASI and PP while adjusting for sex, age, BMI, 24-hour MAP, smoking and drinking habits, diabetes mellitus, and a history of cardiovascular disease., Results: During 13.3 years (median), 126 cardiovascular and 63 stroke deaths occurred. The sex- and age-standardized incidence rates of cardiovascular and stroke mortality across quartiles were U-shaped for AASI and J-shaped for PP. Across quartiles, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for cardiovascular and stroke death significantly deviated from those in the whole population in a U-shaped fashion for AASI, whereas for PP, none of the HRs departed from the overall risk. The hazard ratios for cardiovascular mortality across ascending AASI quartiles were 1.40 (P=0.04), 0.82 (P=0.25), 0.64 (P=0.01), and 1.35 (P=0.03). Additional adjustment of AASI for PP and sensitivity analyses by sex, excluding patients on antihypertensive treatment or with a history of cardiovascular disease, or censoring deaths occurring within 2 years of enrollment, produced confirmatory results., Conclusions: In a Japanese population, AASI predicted cardiovascular and stroke mortality over and beyond PP and other risk factors, whereas in adjusted analyses, PP did not carry any prognostic information.

We investigated the association between stroke and blood pressure (BP) indices (systolic BP [SBP], diastolic BP [DBP], mean BP [MBP], and pulse pressure [PP]) determined by ambulatory BP monitoring. The predictive power for stroke of these indices was compared in the general Japanese population. We obtained ambulatory BP data in 1271 subjects (40% men) aged > or = 40 (mean: 61) years. During a mean follow-up of 11 years, 113 strokes were observed. The multivariate adjusted relative hazard and likelihood ratio for a 1-SD increase for each BP index was determined by Cox proportional hazard regression. Comparison of the likelihood ratio between Cox models including 2 indices and those including 1 index indicated that PP was significantly less informative than other indices (P<0.01 when adding MBP, SBP, or DBP to the PP model; P>0.09 when adding PP to the model including another index). However, after removing age from covariates, PP became more informative than DBP and MBP (P<0.0001 when adding PP to the MBP or DBP model, whereas SBP was more informative than PP even after removing age; P<0.05 when adding SBP to the PP model). In conclusion, PP was the weakest predictor of stroke. Exclusion of age from covariates increased the predictive power of PP, suggesting that the stroke risk associated with PP reflected the risk of aging per se.

Predictive power of self-measured blood pressure at home (home BP) for cardiovascular disease risk has been reported to be higher than casual-screening BP. However, the differential prognostic significance of home BP in the morning (morning BP) and in the evening (evening BP), respectively, has not been elucidated. In the Ohasama study, 1766 subjects (>or=40 years) were followed up for an average of 11 years. The predictive power for stroke incidence of evening BP was compared with that of morning BP as continuous variables. The Cox regression model demonstrated that evening BP and morning BP predicted future stroke risk equally. Subjects were also assigned to 1 of 4 categories based on home BP. In this analysis, stroke risk in morning hypertension ([HT] morning BP >or=135/85 mm Hg and evening BP <135/85 mm Hg; relative hazard (RH): 2.66; 95% CI:1.64 to 4.33) and that in sustained HT(morning BP and evening BP >or=135/85 mm Hg; RH: 2.38; 95% CI: 1.65 to 3.45) was significantly higher than that in normotension (morning BP and evening BP <135/85 mm Hg). The risk in morning HT was more remarkable in subjects taking antihypertensive medication (RH: 3.55; 95% CI: 1.70 to 7.38). Although the risk in evening HT (morning BP <135/85 mm Hg and evening BP >or=135/85 mm Hg) was higher than that in normotension, the differences were not significant. In conclusion, morning BP and evening BP provide equally useful information for stroke risk, whereas morning HT, which indicates HT specifically observed in the morning, might be a good predictor of stroke, particularly among individuals using anti-HT medication.

There is continuing controversy over whether the pattern of circadian blood pressure (BP) variation that includes a nocturnal decline in BP and a morning pressor surge has prognostic significance for stroke risk. In this study, we followed the incidence of stroke in 1430 subjects aged > or =40 years in Ohasama, Japan, for an average of 10.4 years. The association between stroke risk and the pattern of circadian BP variation was analyzed with a Cox proportional hazards model after adjustment for possible confounding factors. There was no significant association between total stroke risk and the nocturnal decline in BP (percentage decline from diurnal level) or between total stroke risk and the morning pressor surge. The cerebral infarction risk was significantly higher in subjects with a <10% nocturnal decline in BP as compared with subjects who had a > or =10% nocturnal decline in BP (P=0.04). The morning pressor surge was not associated with a risk of cerebral infarction. On the other hand, an increased risk of cerebral hemorrhage was observed in subjects with a large morning pressor surge (> or =25 mm Hg; P=0.04). Intracerebral hemorrhage was also observed more frequently in extreme dippers (those with a > or =20% nocturnal decline in BP) than dippers (those with a 10% to 19% decline; P=0.02). A disturbed nocturnal decline in BP is associated with cerebral infarction, whereas a large morning pressor surge and a large nocturnal decline in BP, which are analogous to a large diurnal increase in BP, are both associated with cerebral hemorrhage.

Aims: To evaluate the predictive power of the risk stratification system proposed in the 2003 European Society of Hypertension-European Society of Cardiology (2003 ESH-ESC) guidelines and to compare self-measured blood pressure at home (HBP) with casual-screening blood pressure (CBP) for prediction of first stroke among a general Japanese population., Methods and Results: HBP and CBP were measured in 1702 subjects (> or = 40 years) who had no history of stroke and who were followed for an average of 11 years. The subjects were assigned to one of five groups with differential risk stratification according to the 2003 ESH-ESC criteria: average risk, low added risk, moderate added risk, high added risk, and very high added risk. Even in the low risk group a significantly high risk for stroke was observed, and there was a linear step up of stroke risk based on HBP, as well as on CBP. On the basis of HBP classification, a higher stroke incidence was observed in the high and very high groups compared with CBP classification., Conclusion: The risk stratification system proposed in the 2003 ESH-ESC guidelines is valid for the prediction of stroke in this Japanese study population, and has a stronger predictive power when based on HBP than on CBP. The results indicate the usefulness of HBP for the prediction of stroke risk in individuals.

Objective: To examine the predictive value of self-measured blood pressure values taken at home (home blood pressure) for risk of stroke and subtypes., Methods: We obtained home blood pressure measurements from 1702 people, aged > or =40 years, without a history of stroke, in the general population in Japan, and continued follow-up after a mean period of 10.6 years. The prognostic significance of blood pressure for stroke risk was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model, which was adjusted for possible confounding factors., Results: There was a linear relationship between home blood pressure and risk of stroke and subtypes. On average, each 10/5 mmHg elevation in home systolic/diastolic blood pressure respectively, was associated with an approximately 30/20% respectively, higher risk of total stroke. A similar relationship was observed for the risk of haemorrhagic stroke (intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhage), and the risk of ischaemic stroke [cerebral infarction and transient ischaemic attack (TIA)]. The risk of stroke and subtypes showed a significantly greater relation with home blood pressure values compared to conventional blood pressure values., Conclusions: This is the first study to demonstrate that home blood pressure is an independent predictor for haemorrhagic and ischaemic stroke, in the general population.

Background and Purpose: To compare the predictive power of self-measured home blood pressure (HBP) and casual blood pressure (CBP) for stroke risk in relation to the Joint National Committee 7 (JNC-7) classification., Methods: HBP and CBP measurements were taken in 1702 subjects (> or =40 years) without a history of stroke, who were followed up for an average of 11 years. Subjects were classified into 4 groups on the basis of either HBP or CBP, according to the JNC-7 criteria: group 1 (HBP <115/75 mm Hg; CBP <120/80 mm Hg); group 2 (115/75< or =HBP<135/85 mm Hg; 120/80< or =CBP<140/90 mm Hg); group 3 (135/85< or =HBP<150/95 mm Hg; 140/90< or =CBP<160/100 mm Hg); and group 4 (HBP> or =150/95 mm Hg; CBP > or =160/100 mm Hg). Groups 2, 3, and 4 were further divided into 2 subgroups (a and b): those without and with cardiovascular disease risks, respectively. The risk of the first stroke in these groups was examined by the Cox hazards model adjusted for age and sex., Results: The stroke risk in groups 3b and 4b (defined by HBP and CBP) was 2 to 5x higher than that in group 1 with significant differences. The risk in groups 2a, 3a, and even 4a was not significantly different from that in group 1 by the CBP-based classification, but the risk in group 4a was significantly higher than that in group 1 by the HBP-based classification, which also showed a stepwise increase in risk from groups 2a to 4a., Conclusions: The JNC-7 classification had a stronger predictive power using HBP-based classification compared with CBP-based classification, suggesting the usefulness of HBP in the management of hypertension.

Objective: To determine the optimum number of blood pressure self-measurements taken at home (home blood pressure) in relation to their predictive value for stroke risk., Methods: We obtained more than 14 measurements of home blood pressure from 1491 people aged >or=40 years without a history of stroke in the general population in Japan, and followed them up after a mean period of 10.6 years. The prognostic significance of blood pressure for stroke risk was examined using the Cox proportional hazards regression model, which was adjusted for possible confounding factors., Results: The predictive value of home blood pressure increased progressively with the number of measurements, showing the highest predictive value with the average of whole measurements (mean = 25 measurements, 35% increase in the risk of stroke per 10 mmHg elevation in blood pressure). The initial home blood pressure values (one measurement) showed a significantly greater relation with stroke risk than conventional blood pressure values (mean of two measurements) (19/8% increase in the risk of stroke per 10 mmHg elevation in initial home/conventional systolic blood pressure values, respectively)., Conclusions: There was no threshold for the number of home blood pressure measurements within the range of 1-14 measurements for increasing the predictive power of stroke risk, suggesting that as many measurements as possible, preferably more than 14 measurements, is recommended for better prediction of stroke risk. It should be emphasized that home blood pressure has a stronger predictive power than does conventional blood pressure, even for a lower number of measurements.