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In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the coastal area of the states of Yucatan and Campeche (Mexico). Based on climatology, more than 39,900 hypothetical hurricanes covering all possible directions of motion were synthesized. The storm intensity (category), forward speed, radius of maximum winds and the tide anomaly were varied for each hypothetical track. According to these scenarios, the potential storm surge and associated inundation threat were computed. Subsequently, the Maximum Envelope of Water (MEOW) and the Maximum of the MEOWs (MOMs) were calculated to assess the flood hazard induced by tropical cyclones under varying conditions. In addition, for each MOM, the socioeconomic vulnerability aspects were taken into account in order to assess the hurricane flood risk for the states of Yucatan and Campeche. Results show that the most vulnerable areas are the surroundings of Terminos lagoon, Campeche City and its neighboring areas in the state of Campeche. For Yucatan, the towns located in the Northwest (Celestun, Hunucma and Progreso) and the eastern part of the state presented the highest risk values. The methodology used in this study can be applied to other coastal zones of Mexico as well as places with similar attributes. Furthermore, the MEOW and MOM are very useful as a decision-making tool for prevention, preparedness, evacuation plans, mitigation of the flood hazard and its associated risk, and also for insurance companies.

Mangroves have been proven to be effective in storm surge attenuation but it remains an important challenge to accurately quantify such bio-shielding effects using numerical simulations, as it is very difficult to comprehensively represent the ecological characteristics of mangroves at both large and small scales. In this study, a numerical method is developed and implemented in the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST) model in order to investigate the attenuation effect of mangroves on storm surge. This numerical method employs an improved drag force formula, which involves the development of new abstract tree models and use of a landscape scale data map of mean mangrove tree height for the study area. The storm surge observed in the South Florida mangrove zone caused by Hurricane Wilma (2005) is used to verify the numerical model. The numerical results indicate a maximum surge of approximately 4.3 m, and a decay rate of peak storm surge height of approximately 18 cm/km across the areas with a mixture of mangrove islands and open water, and nearly 24 cm/km through areas with dense mangrove forest. Results also show that short mangroves ( 4 m) can outperform tall mangroves on surge attenuation when the water depth is low ( 4 m). Extensive comparisons are also made with the conventional Manning coefficient based method that incorporates the mangrove drag force into bed friction; it is found that the current method predicts better inundation extents for Wilma (2005), hence a more accurate quantification of the attenuation of storm surge due to mangroves.

Hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma passed over Lake Okeechobee, Florida, in September 2004 and October 2005, respectively. Strong winds caused a large surface seiche on the lake during all three storms. These storms resulted in erosion damage to the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) on Lake Okeechobee. In this paper, we use the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide (FAST) model (Kelly et al. in Coast Eng J 57(4):1–30, 2015, Nat Hazards 83:53–74, 2016) to study the response of the lake (in terms of the water level fluctuations and induced currents) to hurricanes Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma. Comparisons of the modeled surface water level with the observations are in overall good agreement for all three hurricanes. The modeled results suggest that the strong currents induced by the storm winds may be the dominant factor controlling the dike erosion observed at the lake side. The locations of erosion damage to the dike are consistent with the modeled high velocity zones during these three storms. In addition, numerical experiments have been conducted with eight hypothetical category 5 hurricanes approaching from different directions to investigate the erosion-prone zones related to high velocities in the vicinity of the dike. The results of the study should help to provide insight into vulnerable reaches of the HHD and inform flood control in the Okeechobee region.

Kelly et al. (Coast Eng J 57(4):1–30, 2015) present a finite volume dynamic adaptive mesh model based on Osher’s approximate Riemann solver for the prediction of storm surges over complex landscapes. Here, the model described in that paper is extended to use distributed memory parallel block tree-based mesh refinement via the PARAMESH library. The resulting model, called the fully adaptive storm tide (FAST) model, can thus be run on massively parallel supercomputers. In this paper, we validate the FAST model by conducting numerical simulations of the storm surges due to hurricanes Wilma (2005) on Lake Okeechobee and Ike (2008) in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm surge due to Wilma on Lake Okeechobee is interesting as it can be considered as an almost idealized case which comprises a closed system. The case of hurricane Ike is more complex as it involves a coastline and additional features such as barrier islands and tidally controlled boundaries. For both cases, results obtained using the FAST model compare favorably with the measured water elevation and high-water mark data. Moreover, we show that, with sufficient computational resource, low runtimes are possible for real-world surge simulations. The FAST model therefore has the potential to run the ensemble predictions necessary to account for the variability that is inherent in hurricane forecasting.

The sensitivity of the mangrove effect on reducing storm surge flooding to hurricane characteristics is investigated by using the numerical model Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST). First, the attenuation of storm surge by mangroves is incorporated into the model by updating Manning’s coefficient based on the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2001. Then CEST is verified by comparing the model results with field observations in South Florida for Hurricane Wilma. Secondly, a set of numerical experiments using synthetic hurricanes with different intensity, forward speed, radius of maximum wind speed and travel direction are conducted for the sensitivity study. Results indicate that storm surge magnitudes and flooding areas are reduced by the mangrove zone more for fast moving hurricanes than slow moving hurricanes in the west coast of South Florida. In addition, increasing hurricane intensity and hurricane size lower the effect of mangroves on attenuating storm surge and reducing the flooding area. The mangrove zone plays a more effective role in reducing flooding areas from hurricanes that travel from east to west than from hurricanes that travel from west to east. The mangrove reduction effect is most sensitive to changes in hurricane forward speed. A 6.7 m/s to 2.2 m/s decrease in forward speed can result in a decrease in flood area reduction by mangroves that is equivalent to the decrease in flood area reduction by mangroves from Category 3 to 5 hurricanes.

The operational forecast demands and constraints of the National Hurricane Center require that a storm surge model in research mode be tested against a benchmark model such as Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) for accuracy, computation time, and numerical stability before the model is used for operational forecasts. Additionally, the simulated results must be in a geographic information system format to facilitate the usage of computed storm surge for various applications. This paper presents results from a demonstration project to explore the pathway for the transition of the Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST) model to an operational forecast model by testing CEST over SLOSH basins in Florida. The performance and stability of CEST were examined by conducting simulations for Hurricane Andrew (1992) and more than 100 000 synthetic hurricanes for nine SLOSH basins covering the Florida coast and Lake Okeechobee. The results show that CEST produces peak surge heights similar to those from SLOSH. Additionally, CEST has proven to be numerically stable against all synthetic hurricanes and the computation time of CEST is comparable to that of SLOSH. Therefore, CEST has the potential to be used for operational forecasts of storm surge. The potential of producing more detailed real-time surge inundation forecasts was also investigated through the simulations of Andrew's surge on various grids with different cell sizes. The results indicate that CEST can produce 48-h forecasts using a single processor in about 40 min over a grid generated by reducing the cell edge size of the SLOSH grid by 4 times.

Two linear methods, including the simple linear addition and linear addition by expansion, and numerical simulations were employed to estimate storm surges and associated flooding caused by Hurricane Andrew for scenarios of sea level rise (SLR) from 0.15 m to 1.05 m with an interval of 0.15 m. The interaction between storm surge and SLR is almost linear at the open Atlantic Ocean outside Biscayne Bay, with slight reduction in peak storm surge heights as sea level rises. The nonlinear interaction between storm surges and SLR is weak in Biscayne Bay, leading to small differences in peak storm surge heights estimated by three methods. Therefore, it is appropriate to estimate elevated storm surges caused by SLR in these areas by adding the SLR magnitude to storm surge heights. However, the magnitude and extent of inundation at the mainland area by Biscayne Bay estimated by numerical simulations are, respectively, 22–24 % and 16–30 % larger on average than those generated by the linear addition by expansion and the simple linear addition methods, indicating a strong nonlinear interaction between storm surge and SLR. The population and property affected by the storm surge inundation estimated by numerical simulations differ up to 50–140 % from that estimated by two linear addition methods. Therefore, it is inappropriate to estimate the exacerbated magnitude and extent of storm surge flooding and affected population and property caused by SLR by using the linear addition methods. The strong nonlinear interaction between surge flooding and SLR at a specific location occurs at the initial stage of SLR when the water depth under an elevated sea level is less than 0.7 m, while the interaction becomes linear as the depth exceeds 0.7 m.

Field observations and numerical simulations indicate that the 6-to-30-km-wide mangrove forest along the Gulf Coast of South Florida effectively attenuated storm surges from a Category 3 hurricane, Wilma, and protected the inland wetland by reducing an inundation area of 1800 km 2 and restricting surge inundation inside the mangrove zone. The surge amplitude decreases at a rate of 40e50 cm/km across the mangrove forest and at a rate of 20 cm/km across the areas with a mixture of mangrove islands with open water. In contrast, the amplitudes of storm surges at the front of the mangrove zone increase by about 10e30% because of the “blockage” of mangroves to surge water, which can cause greater impacts on structures at the front of mangroves than the case without mangroves. The mangrove forest can also protect the wetlands behind the mangrove zone against surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane with a fast forward speed of 11.2 m/s (25 mph). However, the forest cannot fully attenuate storm surges from a Category 5 hurricane with a slow forward speed of 2.2 m/s (5 mph) and reduced surges can still affect the wetlands behind the mangrove zone. The effects of widths of mangrove zones on reducing surge amplitudes are nonlinear with large reduction rates (15e30%) for initial width increments and small rates (

The effectiveness of simulating surge inundation using the Eulerian–Lagrangian circulation (ELCIRC) model over multi-scale unstructured grids was examined in this study. The large domain model grid encompasses the western North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea to appropriately account for remote and resonance effects during hurricane events and simplify the specification of the open boundary condition. The U.S. East and Gulf Coasts were divided into 12 overlapping basins with fine-resolution (up to 30 × 30 m) grids to model overland surge flooding. These overlapping basins have different fine-resolution grids near the coastal region, but have an identical coarse-resolution grid in the offshore region within the large model domain. Thus, the storm surge prediction can be conducted without reducing computation efficiency by executing multiple model runs with local fine-resolution grids where potential hurricane landfalls may occur. The capability of the multi-scale approach was examined by simulating storm surge caused by Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Isabel (2003) along the South Florida coast and in the Chesapeake Bay. Comparisons between simulated and observed results suggest that multi-scale models proficiently simulated storm surges in the Biscayne Bay and the Chesapeake Bay during two hurricanes. A series of sensitivity tests demonstrated that the simulation of surge flooding was improved when LiDAR topographic data and special bottom drag coefficient values for mangrove forests were employed. The tests also showed that appropriate representation of linear hydrologic features is important for computing surge inundation in an urban area.

The Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST) model for the boundary-fitted curvilinear grid has been developed recently to simulate a hurricane-induced storm surge. A new wetting-drying algorithm was based on accumulated volume and was created for simulating overland flooding. To evaluate the capability of the CEST model, it was compared with the well-established storm surge model—Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricane (SLOSH)—in model grid representation and surge inundation prediction. Two models were compared: first, by carrying out storm surge simulations for Hurricanes Andrew (1992), Hugo (1989), and Camille (1969) over SLOSH's coarse polar grids with cell sizes of 500–7000 m. Results show that the CEST model agreed better with field observations of storm surge flooding. The CEST model was further evaluated by applying it to a fine-resolution curvilinear grid, which has cell sizes of 100–200 m at the hurricane landfall area, along with a superior representation of coastal topography. Co...

Accuracy of predicting storm surge inundation depends on the model grid resolution. The spatial resolutions of many storm surge models are on the order of hundreds of meters to kilometers, which are not sufficient to resolve irregular shorelines and small topographic features. In this paper, storm surge and inundation simulation for Hurricane Andrew of 1992 was carried out with the unstructured tidal, residual, intertidal mudflat (UnTRIM) hydrodynamic model. A high-resolution unstructured grid with cell sizes as small as 20 m was placed over the Key Biscayne Bay area near Miami to better represent irregular shorelines and small morphological features such as barrier islands, rivers, canals, and inlets. A series of experiments was conducted to test model performance with respect to model grid resolution, time step selection, open boundary condition specification, and tidal influence. Results show that the model simulated maximum surge heights and areas of inundation along the Biscayne Bay coast ve...

Three-dimensional computer visualization and animation can provide a substitute for coastal residents', lack of personal experience with hurricane-surge flooding. Tremendous progress has been made in 3D animation in the last decade, which movies such as Perfect Storm and The Day After Tomorrow have demonstrated. However, the 3D visualization and animation system for storm-surge flooding differs from those in Hollywood movies in three aspects. First, objects such as buildings, roads, and trees in a synthetic 3D visualization environment not only have to be able to duplicate the real-world feature visually, but also be georeferenced so users can find real locations through addresses or spatial coordinates. The sizes and shapes of buildings and trees have to be accurate so users can sense the severity of flooding by comparing the water level with heights of familiar objects. Second, the magnitude, extent, and process of storm-surge flooding have to be accurate enough to represent the real situation. This information has to be based on hydrodynamics of storm surge. Third, the damage extent of a property caused by storm surge and waves, such as the collapse of a house, must be determined by engineering rules. Recent advances in high-resolution remote-sensing technology and numerical modeling make it possible to provide accurate data for the earth's surface features and storm-surge flooding.

It has been speculated that future global warming will change the frequency and severity of tropical and extratropical storms. The U.S. east coast is heavily impacted by such storms, so it is important to determine their natural temporal variability for the last century during which global warming has been relatively small. Storm surge data obtained from hourly tide gauge records provide a unique quantitative measure of storm duration and intensity, unlike qualitative estimates based on eyewitness reports or meteorological hindcasts. To demonstrate the potential of storm surge data for climate analysis, the authors have evaluated 10 very long records of water level anomalies. An analysis of the hourly tide gauge records along the U.S. east coast shows a considerable interdecadal variation but no discernible long-term trend in the number and intensity of moderate and severe coastal storms during this century. However, sea level rise over the last century has exacerbated the damage to fixed structu...

In this chapter, we propose a system which integrates storm surge projection, meteorological, topographical, and road data to simulate storm surge conditions. The motivation behind the system is to serve local governments seeking to overcome difficulties in persuading residents to adhere to evacuation notices. The storm surge simulation system introduces an alternative to traditional evacuation advisories which are often superimposed over two-dimensional maps and distributed through television, newspaper, and other public outreach media. First, topographic data are used to construct virtual replicas of cities in the State of Florida. Storm surge data are then used to construct a virtual ocean positioned over the city models. Ambient details such as wind, vegetation, ocean waves, and traffic are animated based on up-to-date meteorological data. Videos of the storm surge visualizations are recorded and made available to coastal residents through a web-interface. The three-dimensional visualization of geographic and storm surge data provides a more visually compelling representation of the potential effects of storm surge than traditional two-dimensional models and is better able to prepare coastal residents to make potentially life-saving evacuation decisions.

The rise of offshore water caused by the high winds of a low pressure weather system, or storm surge, is a hurricane's greatest threat to human life. As weather forecasters struggle to enable coastal residents to make timely evacuation decisions, the need arises for more visually compelling and interactive storm surge visualization tools. This paper presents an interactive and three-dimensional storm surge visualization system. It integrates road, topographic, and building data to construct accurate three-dimensional models of major cities in the State of Florida. Storm surge data are then used to construct a three-dimensional ocean positioned over the terrain models. Ambient details such as wind, vegetation, ocean waves, and traffic are animated based on up-to-date wind and storm surge data. Videos of the storm surge visualizations are recorded and made available to coastal residents through a web-interface. The three-dimensional visualization of geographic and storm surge data provides a more visually compelling representation of the potential effects of storm surge than traditional two-dimensional models and is more capable to enable coastal residents to make potentially life-saving evacuation decisions.

This paper presents a 3D traffic animation system that provides features of vehicle interaction and storm surge response to emulate realistic scenarios in a hurricane affected area. The proposed system constructs road objects based on a series of line segments. Vehicles on the roads are animated by keeping them coherent with the direction of the road segment and adjusting their speeds with respect to one another. The vehicle speed is controlled based upon a collision-circumventing policy and they automatically respond to flood water caused by a storm surge. The system can automatically plant lamp posts along the roads, which also respond to surge flooding. An implementation conducted with the 3D scenes on a couple of south Florida's surge-susceptible areas demonstrates the system's excellence in animating real traffic scenes and impacts of storm surge on coastal regions.

This paper illustrates branch breaking and flying effect animation for trees in our 3D interactive visualization system for hurricanes and storm surge flooding. The tree branch breaking and flying effect animation extends our current tree animation framework by estimating the destination quadrant, direction (angle) and traveling speed with which a branch breaks and flies across the terrain. These calculations thus assist in simulating the potential threats to property and human lives posed by the flying branches during a hurricane, and add to the realism and appeal of our system. We utilize 3D tree models created with 3DSmax and implement the animation effects via OpenGL and nVidia CG shader language.

This paper describes an approach to develop a high performance animation environment for storm surge. The system provides the capability to simulate the storm surge effects in the physical world by (1) modeling a region using the airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data, USGS orthophotos, RLG road data and photos; (2) animating the storm impact by using the features of this model; and (3) providing the capability for users to explore the animation environment. We present our system by modeling the dataset collected from Ft. Lauderdale, a region in South Florida, USA.

Coastal storms repeatedly hit the U.S. East Coast, costing many billions of dollars in losses. In 1992 Hurricane Andrew alone caused about $35–40 billion in damage. In addition to property damage, coastal storms are the major contributors to beach and dune erosion, overwash processes, and the opening of tidal inlets on barrier islands. What changes, if any, can we expect in coastal storm activity and intensity as global temperatures rise?