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In this review of English language publications from 1970, 5-year survival rates after surgery for gastric cancer have been analysed. While the proportion of patients coming to operation has fallen from 92 per cent before 1970 to 71 per cent by 1990, the proportion of operated patients undergoing resection has increased from 37 per cent before 1970 to 48 per cent before 1990. This change suggests improved preoperative staging leading to better patient selection for operation. The 5-year survival rate following all resections has increased significantly from 20.7 per cent before 1970 to 28.4 per cent before 1990, an increase of 7.7 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 7.1-8.3 per cent). The 5-year survival rate following curative or radical resection has risen from 37.6 to 55.4 per cent over the same period, an increase of 17.8 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 17.1-18.5 per cent). It is likely that this improvement has contributed to the decrease in the mortality rate from gastric cancer. Comparison of Japanese series with others suggests that diagnosis and treatment of the disease at an earlier stage will result in an even greater increase in 5-year survival rates outside Japan. Of the papers studied, 56 per cent were excluded from analysis, the majority because the data provided about 5-year survival rates were insufficient or the survival calculations inappropriate. Results of survival after operations for gastric cancer should be calculated and presented in a standardized manner.

In this review of English language publications from 1970, operative mortality following surgery for gastric cancer has been analysed. Operative mortality has declined in series reporting operations in successive decades to 1970, 1980 and 1990. Series reporting patients having surgery for gastric cancer in the decade to 1990 show a mean operative mortality rate of 7.8 per cent (median 4.6 per cent). This improvement may have contributed to the declining mortality rates for gastric cancer in the face of unchanging surgical workload. Results of operations for gastric cancer should be reported in a standard manner.

Objective: To determine the changes in incidence of and mortality from gastric cancer in Scotland between 1978 and 1987 and in the operative workload in Lothian between 1979 and 1988., Design: Analysis of national incidence statistics for gastric cancer derived from the Scottish national cancer registry, deaths from gastric cancer recorded by the registrar general for Scotland, and Lothian surgical audit data., Setting: Scotland and Lothian Health Board area., Patients: Patients in Scotland with gastric cancer during 1978 to 1987 inclusive; patients in Scotland with gastric cancer recorded on their death certificate as cause of death during 1978 to 1987; patients who had an operation in Lothian for gastric cancer during 1979 to 1988., Main Outcome Measures: Changes in incidence of and mortality from gastric cancer in Scotland from 1978 to 1987 and in the number of operations performed for gastric cancer in Lothian from 1979 to 1988., Results: Mortality from gastric cancer in Scotland fell by about 25% over the 10 years. The incidence and standardised incidence of gastric cancer showed a marginal decline of about 9%. The differences in trends between incidence and mortality were significant (p less than 0.05)., Conclusions: This study shows that the surgical workload associated with gastric cancer is not declining. This is because the incidence has remained almost static, which may be due to the relative increase in the numbers of older people in the population, who are at greater risk of developing gastric cancer. Gastric cancer should not be regarded as a disease in decline. Incidence and workload should determine resources allocated to this disease rather than mortality statistics.

Of 280 patients presenting to one hospital with gastric cancer between 1975 and 1985, 97 (35 per cent) did not undergo surgery and 29 per cent (54 out of 183) of those who did had no resection performed. The 30-day operative mortality rate in the study period was 15 per cent (28 out of 183) but in the subsequent 4-year period this fell to 7 per cent (5 out of 69). The survival rate correlated significantly with depth of invasion but not with tumour site or degree of differentiation. The incidence of early gastric cancer in this series was 5 per cent but the 5-year survival rate in this group was 52 per cent suggesting that the true incidence might be even lower. The overall 5-year survival rate in our area 20 years ago was only 5.2 per cent but in this series it was 11 per cent overall and 24 per cent after resection, and with actuarial correction 15 per cent overall and 28 per cent after resection. The continuing improvement in operative mortality rates and in 5-year survival rates gives grounds for optimism, but the disease must be diagnosed earlier if this improvement in outlook is to continue.