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Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, $Z$, and redshift $z, \mathcal{S}(Z,z)$. Considering these uncertainties we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations can impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors $10^2$-$10^4$. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of $\mathcal{S}(Z,z)$ for BHBH, BHNS and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95% of BHBH detections to contain a BH $\gtrsim 8\,\rm{M}_{\odot}$ and have mass ratios $\lesssim 4$. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties., Comment: 25 pages of which 12 are (rainbow) figures. Main results: Fig 2, 4, 5 and 6. Code/results publicly available at https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/Double-Compact-Object-Mergers. Comments welcome more...

Mergers of black hole-neutron star (BHNS) binaries have now been observed by GW detectors with the recent announcement of GW200105 and GW200115. Such observations not only provide confirmation that these systems exist, but will also give unique insights into the death of massive stars, the evolution of binary systems and their possible association with gamma-ray bursts, $r$-process enrichment and kilonovae. Here we perform binary population synthesis of isolated BHNS systems in order to present their merger rate and characteristics for ground-based GW observatories. We present the results for 420 different model permutations that explore key uncertainties in our assumptions about massive binary star evolution (e.g. mass transfer, common-envelope evolution, supernovae), and the metallicity-specific star formation rate density, and characterize their relative impacts on our predictions. We find intrinsic local BHNS merger rates spanning $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{m}}^0 \approx 4$-$830\,\rm{Gpc}^{-3}\,\rm{yr}^{-1}$ for our full range of assumptions. This encompasses the rate inferred from recent BHNS GW detections, and would yield detection rates of $\mathcal{R}_{\rm{det}} \approx 1$-$180\, \rm{yr}^{-1}$ for a GW network consisting of LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA at design sensitivity. We find that the binary evolution and metallicity-specific star formation rate density each impact the predicted merger rates by order $\mathcal{O}(10)$. We also present predictions for the GW detected BHNS merger properties and find that all 420 model variations predict that $\lesssim 5\%$ of the BHNS mergers have BH masses $\gtrsim 18\,M_{\odot}$, total masses $ \gtrsim 20\,M_{\odot}$, chirp masses $\gtrsim 5.5\,M_{\odot}$, mass ratios $ \gtrsim 12$ or $\lesssim 2$. Moreover, we find that massive NSs $\gtrsim 2\,M_{\odot}$ are expected to be commonly detected in BHNS mergers in almost all our model variations., 38 pages, 18 figures, accepted to MNRAS. The authors welcome suggestions and feedback. All data and code to reproduce the results in this paper are publicly available more...

In this work we study the formation of the first two black hole-neutron star (BHNS) mergers detected in gravitational waves (GW200115 and GW200105) from massive stars in wide isolated binary systems - the isolated binary evolution channel. We use 560 BHNS binary population synthesis model realizations from Broekgaarden et al. (2021a) and show that the system properties (chirp mass, component masses and mass ratios) of both GW200115 and GW200105 match predictions from the isolated binary evolution channel. We also show that most model realizations can account for the local BHNS merger rate densities inferred by LIGO-Virgo. However, to simultaneously also match the inferred local merger rate densities for BHBH and NSNS systems we find we need models with moderate kick velocities ($\sigma\lesssim 10^2\,\rm{km}\,\rm{s}^{-1}$) or high common-envelope efficiencies ($\alpha_{\rm{CE}}\gtrsim 2$) within our model explorations. We conclude that the first two observed BHNS mergers can be explained from the isolated binary evolution channel for reasonable model realizations., Comment: Accepted to ApJ Letters, all code and data is publicly available at: https://github.com/FloorBroekgaarden/NSBH_GW200105_and_GW200115 more...

The theory for single stellar evolution predicts a gap in the mass distribution of black holes (BHs) between approximately 45-130M$_{\odot}$, the so-called "pair-instability mass gap". We examine whether BHs can pollute the gap after accreting from a stellar companion. To this end, we simulate the evolution of isolated binaries using a population synthesis code, where we allow for super-Eddington accretion. Under our most extreme assumptions, we find that at most about 2% of all merging binary BH systems contains a BH with a mass in the pair-instability mass gap, and we find that less than 0.5% of the merging systems has a total mass larger than 90M$_{\odot}$. We find no merging binary BH systems with a total mass exceeding 100M$_{\odot}$. We compare our results to predictions from several dynamical pathways to pair-instability mass gap events and discuss the distinguishable features. We conclude that the classical isolated binary formation scenario will not significantly contribute to the pollution of the pair-instability mass gap. The robustness of the predicted mass gap for the isolated binary channel is promising for the prospective of placing constraints on (i) the relative contribution of different formation channels, (ii) the physics of the progenitors including nuclear reaction rates, and (iii), tentatively, the Hubble parameter., Comment: 20 pages, 9 Figures, to be published in ApJ more...