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Over summer 2024, the world will be looking at Paris to encourage their favorite athletes win the Olympic gold medal. In handball, few nations will fight hard to win the precious metal with speculations predicting the victory for France or Denmark for men and France or Norway for women. However, there is so far no scientific method proposed to predict the final results of the competition. In this work, we leverage a deep learning model to predict the results of the handball tournament of the 2024 Olympic Games. This model, coupled with explainable AI (xAI) techniques, allows us to extract insightful information about the main factors influencing the outcome of each match. Notably, xAI helps sports experts understand how factors like match information or individual athlete performance contribute to the predictions. Furthermore, we integrate Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate human-friendly explanations that highlight the most important factors impacting the match results. By providing human-centric explanations, our approach offers a deeper understanding of the AI predictions, making them more actionable for coaches and analysts.

In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams using a statistical method. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete distribution which can handle situations of non equi-dispersion. From its parameters, we derive a mathematical formula to determine the strength of a team. We propose a ranking based on the estimated strengths to compare teams across different championships. Applied to female handball club data from European competitions over the season 2022/2023, we show that our new ranking can have an echo in real sports events and the results.