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Harvest strategies are utilised in the management of fishery resources globally. Critical to their success is harvest strategy evaluation, whereby future performance is assessed through projection modelling. Using the observed relationship between a puerulus settlement index and model‐estimated recruitment, we evaluated a southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) harvest strategy in South Australia. Short‐to‐medium puerulus settlement recruitment forecasting was incorporated into future projections of catch, catch per unit effort, and percent unexploited egg production (%UEP) during 2019–2022. Observed values of indicators that closely aligned with projected outputs indicated that puerulus forecasting underpinned reliable evaluation of future fishery performance. A key objective of the harvest strategy was to increase egg production in the fishery, with a 20% unexploited egg production targeted by 2036. The target was reached under the proposed strategy, but was sensitive to recruitment, thereby highlighting the need to consider climate change impacts in forecasting scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The size at which sexual maturity is reached is a key population parameter used to guide the setting of minimum legal size limits in fisheries. Understanding spatial and temporal variations in size at maturity is fundamental to management because the relationship between size at maturity and minimum legal size limits affects the fraction of the mature population biomass that is harvested, and resulting egg production, larval settlement and recruitment. This study measured the size at maturity of female Southern Rock Lobster (Jasus edwardsii) across South Australia between 1991 and 2015 in relation to known oceanographic characteristics, surface and subsurface temperature data, and relative changes in lobster abundance. There was pronounced north to south spatial variation in estimates of size at maturity. Larger average size at maturity was recorded in warmer north-western areas of the fishery relative to the cooler waters of the south-east. Estimates of size at maturity also differed over 25 years across the fishery. However, the nature of temporal responses varied spatially, and were more consistent with variations in surface and subsurface water temperature at local-scales than changes in lobster density. In the well-mixed waters of the north-western, western and south-eastern parts of the fishery, relatively high rates of increase in sea-surface temperature and size at maturity were recorded since 1991, indicating that size at maturity may be responding to ocean warming associated with global climate change. In more central parts of the fishery, contrasting temporal signals in sea-surface temperature (positive) and bottom temperature (negative) indicated increases in upwelling strength over the study period, and formation of a bottom cold pool below a warm surface layer, with corresponding decreases in size at maturity recorded. The spatio-temporal changes in size at maturity measured in this study highlight the need for oceanographic information to be integrated into future stock assessment models to enhance harvest strategy development, allow timely adaptive management decisions and increase the resilience of fisheries to the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]