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Building barriers to lock in customers and improving the affective customer experience are two key strategies employed by firms to enhance customer retention. Although pursuing the same goal, these strategies work differently: the former relies more on a calculative, cost–benefit approach to the exchange, while the latter promotes affective aspects of the relationship. Integrating experiential learning theory with social exchange theory, we provide a conceptual framework to understand the impact of lock-in and affective customer experience on customer retention, and the moderating role of relationship depth. Using a comprehensive data set for a sample of 13,761 customers covering all firms in one telecom market for two different services, we empirically test the framework via multinomial logit modeling. The results offer novel insights into the interplay between the two strategies. For poor affective customer experience (i.e., a score below five on a 0–10 scale), lock-in helps firms reduce customer churn (between 49.03% and 47.86%). However, the impact of lock-in decreases when affective customer experience improves and turns to be insignificant once the experience reaches the “acceptable level” (i.e., a score above seven on a 0–10 scale). Importantly, the separate and joint effects of the two strategies are stronger when there is a low relationship depth, and weaker when heavy relationships are established. The findings offer useful practical advice to manage these strategies in an efficient and optimal way.

Deliberative minipublics are popular tools to address the current crisis in democracy. However, it remains ambiguous to what degree these small-scale forums matter for mass democracy. In this study, we ask the question to what extent minipublics have “spillover effects” on lay citizens—that is, long-term effects on participating citizens and effects on non-participating citizens. We answer this question by means of a systematic review of the empirical research on minipublics’ spillover effects published before 2019. We identify 60 eligible studies published between 1999 and 2018 and provide a synthesis of the empirical results. We show that the evidence for most spillover effects remains tentative because the relevant body of empirical evidence is still small. Based on the review, we discuss the implications for democratic theory and outline several trajectories for future research.

The bursting of the US housing bubble in the second half of 2008 triggered an almost unprecedented systemic crisis in the world economy. The financial collapse quickly overflowed into the real economy and caused, among other effects, a sharp fall in the flow of world trade. Using export data from Brazilian municipalities, we show that the subprime crisis had a more significant effect on production and employment in exporting cities than municipalities more devoted to the domestic economy. We find that the manufacturing and construction sectors of exporting cities were the most affected during the crisis. However, exporting municipalities with a substantial share of services activities were more resilient to the external crisis. This difference is significant and sheds light on the debate on the effects of the crisis on Brazilian regions and cities. Using a unique business management dataset that contains firm-to-firm controls, we also find spillovers in the labor market from exporting to domestic-oriented cities through job reallocation. Our results suggest that workers migrate from exporting municipalities to other non-exporting municipalities within the same firm economic group.

Zoonotic infectious diseases are spread from animals to humans. It is estimated that over 60% of human infectious diseases are zoonotic and 75% of them are emerging zoonoses. The majority of emerging zoonotic infectious diseases are caused by viruses including avian influenza, rabies, Ebola, coronaviruses and hantaviruses. Spillover of infection from animals to humans depends on a complex transmission pathway, which is influenced by epidemiological and environmental processes. In this investigation, the focus is on direct transmission between animals and humans and the effects of seasonal variations on the transmission and recovery rates. Fluctuations in transmission and recovery, besides being influenced by physiological processes and behaviors of pathogen and host, are driven by seasonal variations in temperature, humidity or rainfall. A new time-nonhomogeneous stochastic process is formulated for infectious disease spread from animals to humans when transmission and recovery rates are time-periodic. A branching process approximation is applied near the disease-free state to predict the probability of the first spillover event from animals to humans. This probability is a periodic function of the time when infection is introduced into the animal population. It is shown that the highest risk of a spillover depends on a combination of animal to human transmission, animal to animal transmission and animal recovery. The results are applied to a stochastic model for avian influenza with spillover from domestic poultry to humans.

Using frequency domain analysis, this paper examines the volatility spillover from the United States and Japanese stock markets to the Vietnamese stock market. Daily data of S&P 500, Nikkei 225 and VN-Index from January 01, 2012 to May 31, 2016 is used. In terms of estimation, the GARCH model is used to estimate volatilities in these stock markets; the Granger Causality Test is used to examine volatility spillover; and the test for causality in the frequency domain by Jorg Breitung and Bertrand Candelon (2006) is used to examine the volatility spillover at different frequencies. The empirical results provide two main contributions: (i) there is a significant volatility spillover from the United States to the Vietnamese stock markets, but the evidence of volatility spillover from the Japanese to the Vietnamese stock market is not found; and (ii) the volatility spillover may vary across frequency spectrum bands. To our best understanding, volatility spillover analysis using frequency domain approach was not previously reported in literature.

While we experience the most significant zoonotic pandemic in 100 years, we would do well to consider how we arrived at this historic moment and how we will prevent the next pandemic. In this commentary, we explore the human drivers of emerging infectious diseases and contend that a One Health approach—in which multiple disciplines work together to ensure the health of environments, humans, and non-human animals—is imperative to get through this pandemic and to prevent future ones.

This paper examines the nature of interconnectedness between the returns of the price of oil and foreign exchange on selected agricultural commodity prices. To do this, the authors leverage the novel methodology of a spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) that reports predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers. International Journal of Forecasting 28, no. 1: 57-66) that reports: (i) Net spillovers; (ii) Directional spillovers; (iii) Pairwise net spillovers; and (iv) Total spillover indices. This study also captures all secular and cyclical movements with the aid of rolling window analysis to ensure the robustness of the estimations. Empirical analyses are constructed based on monthly realised frequency data from 2006M1 to 2016M7. The empirical analysis from the full sample size shows that rice, sorghum, price inflation, a nominal effective exchange rate and oil price display weak pass-through among the investigated variables while banana, cocoa, groundnut, maize, soybean and wheat are net transmitters of spillover. Based on these revelations, several policy prescriptions for the agricultural commodity markets and their diverse responses to either exchange rate fluctuations or a dwindling oil price are suggested for Nigeria.

In this multi-informant, longitudinal, daily diary study, we investigated whether long-term dyadic patterns of marital conflict resolution explain the heterogeneity in short-term day-to-day cross-lagged associations between marital conflict intensity and mother-adolescent conflict intensity. The sample consisted of 419 adolescents (44.6% girls, MEn este estudio de informantes múltiples, longitudinal y de registro diario, investigamos si los patrones diádicos de resolución de conflictos conyugales a largo plazo explican la heterogeneidad en las asociaciones diarias de retardo cruzado a corto plazo entre la intensidad del conflicto conyugal y la intensidad del conflicto entre las madres y los adolescentes. La muestra estuvo integrada por 419 adolescentes (el 44.6 % niñas, edad promedio = 13.02, desviación típica = 0.44, en la T1; edad promedio = 17.02, desviación típica= 0.44, en la T5), sus madres (número = 419, edad promedio = 44.48, desviación típica = 4.17, en la T1), y sus padres (número = 419, edad promedio= 46.76, desviación típica = 4.99, en la T1). Las madres y los padres informaron sus estrategias de resolución de conflictos conyugales anualmente durante cinco años. Se evaluaron la intensidad del conflicto diario entre la madre y el padre (informado por la madre) y la intensidad del conflicto diario entre la madre y el adolescente (informado por la madre y el adolescente) durante 75 días a lo largo de cinco años. Planteamos la hipótesis de que los patrones de resolución de conflicto conyugal a largo plazo moderarían la dinámica diaria de conflicto a corto plazo entre la díada conyugal y la díada madre-adolescente. El análisis de crecimiento de clases latentes reveló cuatro tipos de familias sobre la base de la resolución de conflictos conyugales diádicos a largo plazo, incluidas las familias donde se usó la resolución de conflictos principalmente constructiva o principalmente destructiva. Se utilizó el modelo de ecuaciones estructurales dinámicas para investigar los niveles diarios y la dinámica diaria de conflicto a corto plazo, el cual reveló que para la mayoría de las familias no hubo asociaciones diarias retardadas entre el conflicto conyugal y el conflicto entre madres y adolescentes. Los resultados indicaron que los patrones de resolución de conflictos a largo plazo no moderaron la dinámica a corto plazo del conflicto diario. Sin embargo, se encontraron diferencias entre los patrones de resolución de conflictos conyugales a largo plazo en los niveles de conflicto diario, de modo que, en las familias con patrones de resolución de conflictos destructivos a largo plazo, la intensidad del conflicto diario fue mayor.本研究是一项长期研究，对来自多个方面的受试者和其每日日记的研究，我们调查了婚姻冲突解决的长期二元模式是否解释了婚姻冲突强度和母亲-青少年冲突强度之间的短期、日常、交叉滞后关系的异质性。样本包括419名青少年(44.6%是女孩，年龄为13.02,SD = 0.44, T1;母亲(N = 419, Mage = 44.48, SD = 4.17, T1)和父亲(N = 419, Mage = 46.76, SD = 4.99, T1)。在过去的五年里，父母每年都会报告他们解决婚姻冲突的策略。五年内，对母亲与父亲的每日冲突强度(母亲报告)和母亲与青少年的每日冲突强度(母亲与青少年报告) 进行了75天的评估。我们假设长期的婚姻冲突解决模式将调节婚姻的和母亲-青少年之间的冲突的短期的、每日动态。潜在类别增长分析显示，基于长期夫妻婚姻冲突解决的四种类型的家庭，包括主要使用建设性或破坏性冲突解决的家庭。运用动态结构方程模型研究冲突的每日水平及短期每日动态，发现婚姻冲突与母亲-青少年冲突并无每日滞后关系。结果表明，长期冲突解决模式对日常冲突的短期动态没有调节作用。但长期婚姻冲突解决模式在日常冲突水平上存在差异。具有长期破坏性冲突解决模式的家庭，日常冲突强度更高。.

Significance The threat to public health that is presented by zoonotic spillover of pathogens from animal reservoirs is predicted to increase with rapid anthropogenic changes and global trends such as migration and changing land use. Schistosomiasis currently infects more than 220 million people worldwide, and the multihost Schistosoma spp. system within Africa is a key example of where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled the formation of viable hybrid parasite genotypes. Our study demonstrates how zoonotic spillover and complex interactions between pathogen species, such as parasite hybridization, may have implications such as resilience to current disease control strategies and may facilitate the spread of tropical diseases such as schistosomiasis beyond their original geographical boundaries., Zoonotic spillover and hybridization of parasites are major emerging public and veterinary health concerns at the interface of infectious disease biology, evolution, and control. Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease of global importance caused by parasites of the Schistosoma genus, and the Schistosoma spp. system within Africa represents a key example of a system where spillover of animal parasites into human populations has enabled formation of hybrids. Combining model-based approaches and analyses of parasitological, molecular, and epidemiological data from northern Senegal, a region with a high prevalence of schistosome hybrids, we aimed to unravel the transmission dynamics of this complex multihost, multiparasite system. Using Bayesian methods and by estimating the basic reproduction number (R0), we evaluate the frequency of zoonotic spillover of Schistosoma bovis from livestock and the potential for onward transmission of hybrid S. bovis × S. haematobium offspring within human populations. We estimate R0 of hybrid schistosomes to be greater than the critical threshold of one (1.76; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.99), demonstrating the potential for hybridization to facilitate spread and establishment of schistosomiasis beyond its original geographical boundaries. We estimate R0 for S. bovis to be greater than one in cattle (1.43; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.85) but not in other ruminants, confirming cattle as the primary zoonotic reservoir. Through longitudinal simulations, we also show that where S. bovis and S. haematobium are coendemic (in livestock and humans respectively), the relative importance of zoonotic transmission is predicted to increase as the disease in humans nears elimination.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of terrorism on stock markets of South Asia namely, Karachi Stock Exchange 100 index (Pakistan), Bombay Stock Exchange (India), Colombo Stock Exchange (Sri Lanka) and Chittagong Stock Exchange (Bangladesh). Monthly panel data has been used for the period of January 2000 to December 2016. Terrorism events happened during the period of 2000 to 2016 have been incorporated to examine the impact of terrorism on stock market returns of South Asia. DCC GARCH through R software is used to analyze the impact of terrorism on stock market returns and to analyze the spillover effect of terrorism in one country and on the stock markets of other countries of South Asia. The results indicate that terrorism has significant and negative effect on stock market returns of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh but insignificant in Sri Lanka. Results also shows that stock markets return of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh are significant and positively correlated with each other except the Stock market of Sri Lanka.

This paper examines the return and volatility spillovers of different sectoral stock prices in Nigeria using monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016. We employ the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover approach and rolling sample analysis to capture the inherent secular and cyclical movements in the sector stocks market.We show that there is substantial difference between the behaviour of the sectoral stock return and volatility spillover indices over time. We find evidence of interdependence among sector stocks given the spillover indices. While the return spillover index reveals increased integration among the sectoral stocks, the volatility spillover index experiences significant bursts during major market crises. Interestingly, return and volatility spillovers exhibit both trends and bursts respectively.

We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to analyze international spillover effects of US trade restrictions, modeled as a reduction of US imports. Our sample consists of the US and 25 countries in the rest of the world, grouped into larger regions comprising European nations, non-European industrial countries and emerging economies. We find US trade restrictions to reduce trade volumes and income levels in the rest of the world as well as in the US. The trade balance deteriorates across all world regions except in the US, where it is unaffected by the trade restrictions. We also model the effects of a trade war in which the rest of the world responds in equal measure to the trade restrictions imposed by the US. We again find that export and import activity recedes both in the US and in the rest of the world, although the resulting effects are now strongest in the short run. The trade balance improves in the rest of the world but deteriorates in the US. In terms of the GDP response, the rest of the world is initially much harder hit by the imposition of the retaliatory trade measure than is the US.

This paper exploits the social organization of India to revisit the question of education spillovers in farm productivity. The fact that social interactions mainly occur within castes in rural India provides tools to show that the observed correlation between farm productivity and neighbors' education is likely to be a spillover effect. In particular, there are no cross-caste and no cross-occupation effects, which underlines that, under specific assumptions, which are stated and explored in the paper, the education of neighbors does not capture the effect of group unobservables. This evidence is complemented by separate estimations by crops, which show results that are consistent with education spillovers. The strategy used in this paper helps understand and interpret previous findings from the literature.

Major economic, environmental, or social shocks induce uncertainty, which in turn may impact economic development and may require institutional change. Based on the idea that catastrophic events (CEs) affect people’s perceptions of reality and judgments about the future, this paper analyzes the effect of CEs on people’s worries in terms of social, economic, and environmental issues. In particular, we consider the terrorist attack 9/11 in 2001, the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, and the nuclear disaster in Fukushima in 2011. We propose two possible mechanisms: A CE in one sphere may affect people’s worries in general (“spillover”) or it may lead to people focusing on that sphere and being less worried about other spheres (“crowding out”). We argue that the determinants of the mechanisms are related to the type of CE, that a person’s professional background moderates the influence of a CE on his or her worries, and that the subsequent development of worries is affected by whether institutional responses are contested. The analysis is based on longitudinal data of the German Socio-Economic Panel.

Many global shocks, including the renegotiation of NAFTA, the United States–China trade war, the Brexit, and the COVID-19 pandemic, may have recently influenced the inflation spillover in the G7 countries. The current literature overlooks the influence of these important events on the inflation spillover of the G7 countries. This study fulfills this gap and investigates the nature of inflation spillover in the short, medium, and long term. Using the monthly data from 1956:6 to 2020:12, the study finds that Japan and the United States are the main transmitters of inflation. International trade, purchasing power parity, low-cost technology, and the Abenomics policy were found to be responsible for the inflation spillover. We suggest that the central banks of these countries collaborate to achieve the targeted inflation rate.

As a core component of the digital economy, digital financial technology has a complex interactive and interdependent relationship with ecological efficiency. From the holistic spatial interaction perspective, this paper uses spatial simultaneous equations and generalized spatial three-stage least squares (GS3SLS) to analyze the spatial interaction spillovers between digital financial technology and urban ecological efficiency based on data from 284 Cities in China from 2008 to 2018. The results show that: (1) Digital financial technology and urban ecological efficiency promote each other, and the latter is relatively dominant. (2) Both digital financial technology and urban ecological efficiency have significant spatial spillover effects. (3) Digital financial technology in surrounding cities has a restraining effect on local ecological efficiency, and the improvement of ecological efficiency in surrounding cities has a siphon effect on local digital financial technology. (4) There is spatial and period heterogeneity in the intensity of the spatial interaction spillover effect between the two. With resources and environment increasingly becoming rigid constraints on economic growth, these findings help identify new drivers of regional ecological efficiency and promote the coordinated development of digital finance and green ecology.

Policymakers are interested in programs that increase targeted pro-environmental behavior (PEB) and spill over to increase non-targeted PEBs. Theoretically, guilt should lead to negative spillover and identity to positive spillover, though this has rarely been tested empirically. Additionally, little is known about how reminders of past PEB behavior might also lead to downstream spillover effects. Across two studies, participants (Study 1: 377 MTurk workers; Study 2: 172 undergraduates) were randomly assigned to write about a prior PEB, an anti-environmental behavior, or to a control condition. Subsequently, respondents were given an opportunity to perform a PEB2 and completed measures of PEB3 intentions. Results showed some evidence of positive (through increasing identity) and negative (through decreasing guilt) indirect spillover pathways from prior PEB reminders to PEB2 performance and PEB3 curtailment intentions (but not efficiency upgrade intentions). However, there were no overall spillover effects from PEB reminders to PEB2 performance or PEB3 intentions, as the positive and negative indirect effects canceled each other out. Results also showed positive spillover from PEB2 performance to PEB3 curtailment intentions through increasing environmental guilt. The strength of the spillover effects depended on the comparison group for the experimental manipulation, whether environmental guilt or global guilt was measured, and the type of PEB. The results suggest that environmental communications that remind people of their prior PEB may not meaningfully spill over to further PEB performance or intentions.

In this study, we examine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global economic activity, the stock market, and the energy sector considering the sizable damaging impacts in these crucial aspects. Our results, based on the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model for the data from 21 January 2020, to 26 February 2021, indicate that the COVID-19 cases significantly and negatively impact all the endogenous variables such as Baltic dry index (BDI), MSCI world index (MSCI), and MSCI world energy index (MSCIE). Our results also reveal that of the three variables, the stock markets indices (MSCI and MSCIE) are comparatively more affected by COVID-19 cases. The findings imply that the stock markets are more sensitive to the COVID-19 pandemic than the real economy. The results further indicate that of the three variables, the MSCIE index is the most affected by COVID-19 due to two factors: one is the dwindling power consumption caused by COVID-19 and the other is the decline in oil price because of the Russia–OPEC price war. Our findings enhance the understanding of the spillover impacts of the global health crisis on economic activity, the stock market, and the energy sector. Moreover, our study offers insights for policymakers and governments into the relationship dynamics of COVID-19 that would help them be more cautious in taking preventive measures against the health crisis to save the economy, the stock market, and the energy sector from falling into a more deepened crisis.

Generating energy by renewable sources like wind, sun or water has led to the emergence of “clean” energy that is generally available at low cost to the environment and is generated from seemingly unbounded resources. Many countries have implemented schemes to support the diffusion of renewable energies. The diffusion of micro-generation technologies like roof-top photovoltaics is one of the success stories within the energy transition and has been significantly driven—at least in countries such as Germany—by households. As these households usually not only generate energy but also consume it they are often called “prosumers.” How does it influence the energy behavior of households if they become prosumers? Are these behavioral changes in line with further goals of the energy transition, e.g., reducing demand? What shapes individual behaviors of prosumers? The paper introduces a conceptual framework based on the existing literature on rebound and spillover effects. It systematizes possible behavioral consequences as well as mechanisms behind them. This framework is then used to code and analyze data from 48 in-depth interviews with prosumer households. These interviews reveal a broad variety of behavioral responses which have their roots in economic conditions and their evaluation by the prosumers, psychological mechanisms like central guiding principles and a clear conscience as well as sociotechnical context and legislative frameworks.

Rodents (order Rodentia), followed by bats (order Chiroptera), comprise the largest percentage of living mammals on earth. Thus, it is not surprising that these two orders account for many of the reservoirs of the zoonotic RNA viruses discovered to date. The spillover of these viruses from wildlife to human do not typically result in pandemics but rather geographically confined outbreaks of human infection and disease. While limited geographically, these viruses cause thousands of cases of human disease each year. In this review, we focus on three questions regarding zoonotic viruses that originate in bats and rodents. First, what biological strategies have evolved that allow RNA viruses to reside in bats and rodents? Second, what are the environmental and ecological causes that drive viral spillover? Third, how does virus spillover occur from bats and rodents to humans?

In our study, we examine whether spatial spillover effects exist for greenhouse gas emission efficiency for 38 European countries between 2005 and 2014. We find that inefficiencies of other countries would lead to lower efficiency levels for a country. This negative inefficiency spillover effect goes down till 2008 then goes up till 2011, then stays relatively stable after 2011. Any strategy to reduce inefficiencies of other countries could potentially improve the efficiency levels. We find that human development index shows significant positive impact on greenhouse gas emission efficiency levels. In particular, one standard deviation increase in human development index would lead to a 11.12 percentage points increase in the greenhouse gas emission efficiencies on average. Different countries show different efficiency levels and efficiency growth patterns over time. However, the pattern of spatial spillover is quite similar among all countries over time.

We examine the high-frequency return and volatility of major cryptocurrencies and reveal that spillovers among them exist. Our analysis shows that return and volatility clustering structures are distinct among different cryptocurrencies, suggesting that return and volatility might have different spillover patterns. Further investigation via minimal spanning trees points out that BTC, LTC and ETH are the most relevant cryptocurrencies in general, serving as connection hubs for linking many other cryptocurrencies. However, their role is challenged lately, potentially due to the increased usage of other cryptocurrencies in time.

Research Question/Issue: This study seeks to understand the circumstances under which board behavior is affected by gender diversity. The ‘Reasoned Action Approach’ (Fishbein& Ajzen, 2010) is used as a lens through which to assess the extent that the behavior of the board varies with its gender diversity.Research Findings/Insights: The study uses archival data from a panel sample of 80,395 directorships observed between 1998 and 2012. Boardroom gender diversity is significantly related to director personal responsibility (board attendance), CEO accountability, and risk taking. Our findings highlight the key importance of the exposure of male directors to women directors on boards beyond the focal board. This suggests a positive externality, or a spillover effect.Theoretical/Academic Implications: The empirical findings of this study highlight the importance of allowing for the operation of social norms when studying boardroom decision making. Experience gained by male directors of working with women directors on other boards, beyond the focal board, is shown to enable women directors to contribute more effectively.Practitioner/Policy Implications: This study offers encouragement to policy makers intent on increasing the presence of women on corporate boards. These results point to a spillover effect: there is an observed impact of women on boards that acts not only directly on the board on which they sit but also through the network of boards on which their male counterparts sit.

Three decades ago Huckfeldt and Sprague hypothesised that partisan context constrains infor- mation sharing between neighbours. We develop their theory to identify implications for campaign mobilisation in homogeneous and mixed-partisan contexts. We argue that GOTV spillover effects should vary with the proportion of rival party supporters in a neighbourhood. Based on two sam- ples of households that were either included or excluded pre-random assignment from a street-level GOTV experiment, we test this expectation of differential spillover effects. We estimate neigh- bourhood party preferences based on targeting data made available by the UK Labour Party. We find that spillover effects on party supporters are smaller in neighbourhoods that include larger shares of rival party supporters. Rival partisans are mobilised in mixed partisan neighbourhoods where the probability of spillovers from mixed partisan households is higher. This paper extends Huckfeldt and Sprague’s theory, and demonstrates the importance of social dynamics for parties’ campaign strategies.

Despite extensive research on the influence between social movements, knowledge remains limited to the basic social processes by which this occurs. This article locates these social processes in the accounts among young adult feminist activists in Ecuador and Peru. Qualitative interviews were conducted and analyzed among 21 young adult feminist activists from eight groups. The findings show how their feminist mobilizing was influenced by interactions with professionalized feminist organizations that were simultaneously inclusive and exclusionary. Three in/exclusionary interactions captured basic social processes whereby young adult feminist activists struggled to define modes of participation, organizational practices, and targets of engagement.

The transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is called “zoonotic spillover”. Most human infectious diseases (60-75%) are derived from pathogens that originally circulated in non-human animal species. This demonstrates that spillover has a fundamental role in the emergence of new human infectious diseases. Understanding the factors that facilitate the transmission of pathogens from wild animals to humans is essential to establish strategies focused on the reduction of the frequency of spillover events. In this context, this article describes the basic aspects of zoonotic spillover and the main factors involved in spillover events, considering the role of the inter-species interactions, phylogenetic distance between host species, environmental drivers, and specific characteristics of the pathogens, animals, and humans. As an example, the factors involved in the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic are discussed, indicating what can be learned from this public health emergency, and what can be applied to the Brazilian scenario. Finally, this article discusses actions to prevent or reduce the frequency of zoonotic spillover events.

There is a large and growing literature on spillovers but no study that systematically evaluates the importance of spillovers for portfolio management. This paper provides such an analysis and demonstrates that spillovers are fully embedded in estimates of expected returns, variances, and correlations and that estimation of spillovers is not necessary for asset allocation. Simulations of typical empirical spillover settings further show that same-frequency spillovers are often negligible and spurious.

In this paper, we analyze whether Australian banks' wholesale funding (WF) costs are driven by foreign monetary policy. Using data for 2000-2015, we find that in aggregate, WF costs are not directly affected by the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate, except for issues in Australian dollars. The impact is indirect, through the yield of Australian government bonds. WF costs for issues in non-Australian currencies (except Japanese yen) depend on foreign monetary policy. The paper also shows that WF costs do not depend on the volatility index and exchange rates. Our results have implications for regulators and monetary-policy makers. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources&mdash, conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

There is a growing consensus that reducing excess meat consumption will be necessary to meet climate change targets, whilst also benefitting people’s health. Strategies aimed at encouraging reduced meat consumption also have the potential to promote additional pro-environmental behaviors through behavioral spillover, which can be catalyzed through an increased pro-environmental identity. Based on this, the current study tested the effectiveness of a randomized two-week messaging intervention on reducing red and processed meat consumption and encouraging pro-environmental behavioral spillover. Participants were undergraduate students in the United Kingdom (n = 320 at baseline) randomly allocated to four conditions in which they received information about the health, environmental, or combined (health and environmental) impacts of meat consumption, and a no-message control. The results showed that receiving information on the health and/or environmental impacts of meat was effective in reducing red and processed meat consumption compared to the control group during the intervention period, with some effects remaining one-month later. However, the intervention did not have any effect on pro-environmental identity and there was little evidence of behavioral spillover. Implications for future research and interventions aimed at reducing meat consumption are discussed.

Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America, where free movement rights mean that residents can cross borders using just a national ID. Additionally, rural livelihoods largely depend on short-term migrants traveling across borders via the Amazon&rsquo, s river networks to work in extractive industries, such as logging. As a result, there is likely considerable spillover across country borders, particularly along the border between Peru and Ecuador. This border region exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. In this paper, we integrate 13 years of weekly malaria surveillance data collected at the district level in Peru and the canton level in Ecuador, and leverage hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models to identify the degree to which malaria transmission in Ecuador is influenced by transmission in Peru. We find that increased case incidence in Peruvian districts that border the Ecuadorian Amazon is associated with increased incidence in Ecuador. Our results highlight the importance of coordinated malaria control across borders.

Wildlife vaccination is of urgent interest to reduce disease-induced extinction and zoonotic spillover events. However, several challenges complicate its application to wildlife. For example, vaccines rarely provide perfect immunity. While some protection may seem better than none, imperfect vaccination can present epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary challenges. While anti-infection and antitransmission vaccines reduce parasite transmission, antidisease vaccines may undermine herd immunity, select for increased virulence, or promote spillover. These imperfections interact with ecological and logistical constraints that are magnified in wildlife, such as poor control and substantial trait variation within and among species. Ultimately, we recommend approaches such as trait-based vaccination, modeling tools, and methods to assess community- and ecosystem-level vaccine safety to address these concerns and bolster wildlife vaccination campaigns., Highlights Vaccines vary in their efficacy and can be categorized as conferring waning, binary, or partial immunity. Some imperfect vaccines may indirectly increase parasite transmission or virulence. Target vaccine coverage depends on wildlife disease control objectives, for example, spillover prevention or conservation. Understanding the ecological drivers of variation in exposure (e.g., trait-based behaviors) and physiological response to vaccination (e.g., species identity, age class, genotype) is critical to developing efficient vaccine deployment strategies. Features of vaccine or host–parasite biology should drive the choice of modeling framework between classic compartment models versus individual-based models (IBMs). Susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR) models are useful for modeling binary imperfection, but IBMs are better for vaccines with partial imperfection.

The 2008 global financial crisis provides us with a wide range of study fields on cross-asset contagion mechanisms in the US financial markets. After a decade of the so-called subprime crisis, the impact of market news on asset volatilities increased significantly. Consequently, return and volatility spillovers became the most extensive channel for spreading out the news generated in one market to the other ones, which made the financial markets inherit international risk factors as their own local risks. Moreover, as a result of the Chinese economy becoming the main driver of the global economy in the last decade, Chinese markets became more interconnected with developed markets which were followed by a &ldquo, digital cold war&rdquo, era via Twitter. In this study, we investigate the relationship between the US stock market, Chinese stock markets, rare earth markets and industrial metals, and mining products via three different models by utilizing VAR&ndash, VECH&ndash, TARCH models. According to our findings, bilateral spillover exists between US and Chinese stock markets. Cross-market spillovers show that there is a risk transmission channel between the industrial metals, rare earth, and Chinese and US stock markets due to China&rsquo, s strengthening position in the global economy.

In recent years, there has been growing interest in the market interactions between carbon (or clean/renewable energy) and traditional fossil energy such as coal and oil, but few studies have discussed their dynamic volatility spillover and time-varying correlation. To investigate these issues, we used the weekly data of the European Union carbon emission allowance (EUA) futures, biofuel and Brent oil prices from 25 October 2009 to 5 July 2020. We employed the vector autoregressive-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (VAR-GARCH) model with the Baba, Engle, Kraft and Krone (BEKK) specification. Our main findings are summarized as follows: First, we identified the sudden changes and the volatility persistence in the EUA, biofuel, and Brent oil markets, and also confirmed that the volatility of the markets has changed significantly over time. Second, we found a weak volatility spillover effect among the three markets, and a strong spillover effect between the EUA and Brent oil markets. In particular, the effect of volatility spillover from the Brent oil market to the EUA market was the strongest than the other cases. Lastly, in financial market, by holding the EUA and energy sources together as assets, investors can effectively hedge their investment risk. The possibility of hedging is more pronounced between the EUA and biofuel markets.

Significance In the US healthcare system, most medical providers treat patients covered by multiple insurers. As a result, changes in the way one health insurer pays for medical services could, by changing provider behavior, spill over onto patients covered by other insurers. In this article, we present evidence of such spillovers in the context of a large Medicare payment reform that was implemented in some areas of the country but not in others, via random assignment. We show that the payment reform had effects of similar magnitude on both the directly covered patients and on patients covered by other insurers. We discuss implications of these findings for our interpretation of existing estimates as well as for the design of healthcare policy., Changes in the way health insurers pay healthcare providers may not only directly affect the insurer’s patients but may also affect patients covered by other insurers. We provide evidence of such spillovers in the context of a nationwide Medicare bundled payment reform that was implemented in some areas of the country but not in others, via random assignment. We estimate that the payment reform—which targeted traditional Medicare patients—had effects of similar magnitude on the healthcare experience of nontargeted, privately insured Medicare Advantage patients. We discuss the implications of these findings for estimates of the impact of healthcare payment reforms and more generally for the design of healthcare policy.

We quantify the causal effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on air quality in the context of China. Using the lockdowns in different cities as exogenous shocks, our difference-in-differences estimations show that lockdown policies significantly reduced air pollution by 12% on average. Based on the first lockdown city, Wuhan, we present three underlying mechanisms driving our findings: anticipatory effects, spillover effects, and a city's level of connection with Wuhan. Our findings are more pronounced in cities whose population was more willing to self-isolate or more susceptible to anxiety, or whose government faces less pressure to stimulate economic growth. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by evaluating the unintended consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak for air quality, and provides timely policy implications for policymakers.

This study presents a new European investor sentiment index, EURsent, based on new individual sentiment proxies such as VSTOXX, gold, and the German bond yield spread, and studies the spillover and contagion between the United States and Europe. Furthermore, it analyses the simultaneous influence of this new sentiment measure index on both volatility and stock returns, including causality. Applying well-established statistical techniques, such as principal component analysis, ordinary least squares, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH), generalized ARCH (GARCH), and threshold GARCH models, the findings demonstrate how EURsent is closely interrelated with the most universally recognized sentiment index in academia, demonstrating strong co-movement between the US and European stock markets, mainly prior to the global subprime crisis. The study also applies vector autoregressive modelling and OOS analysis that allows one to conclude that EURsent is a strong predictor of market returns, through the discount rate and cash flow news, although the latter is the most relevant channel. This study creates a truly representative measure of global European investor sentiment that is comparable to that created by Baker and Wurgler for the United States, interlinking a holistic sentiment measure index, sustained on new single investor sentiment proxies, with conditionally market volatility and market returns, suggesting causality. EURsent could thus be a tool for investment managers, investors, and financial service providers as well as regulators to monitor the evolution of stock markets. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The authors argue that in preventing and controlling the pandemic of Covid‐19, we should have taken an offensive or proactive strategy rather than a defensive or reactionary one because the former type of approach can bring about more health benefits and fewer harms than can the latter. The offensive or proactive approach consists of two parts: The first part is to preemptively establish a barrier between a novel virus and humans in order to prevent the spillover of the virus into humans, and the second part is that, when a spillover fails to be prevented, we should take public interventions, such as contact tracing, social distancing, and quarantine and isolation, as early as when there are several dozens or one hundred or more cases that manifest symptoms with an unknown etiology in order to prevent an epidemic that is still limited to relatively small groups from developing into an outbreak.

Economics - Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; International audience; We propose a new measure of systemic risk based on interconnectedness, defined as the level of direct and indirect links between financial institutions in a correlation-based network. Deriving interconnectedness in terms of risk, we empirically show that within a financial network, indirect links are strengthened during systemic events. The relevance of our measure is illustrated at both local and global levels. Our framework offers policymakers a useful toolbox for exploring the real-time topology of the complex structure of dependencies in financial systems and for measuring the consequences of regulatory decisions.

The mediation of an attitude to a product following a brief message is investigated. Statements indicating whether a computer was running on energy from renewable or more conventional sources were presented and users' experiences were measured. Participants' pre-existing environmental concern and the satisfaction they expressed with the computers were related, but only when the "renewable energy" message was presented. We conclude that enduring attitudes to environmental concern and situation-specific knowledge can interact in evaluations of a situation - a finding with implications for behavior-change strategies. Theoretically, results are discussed in terms of "spillover" from one behavior to another, the Halo Effect and self-activation, where those with a self-identity of being environmentally conscious have this identity activated by messaging congruent with their self-identity, resulting in an influence of their opinion of a product. Conversely, those with an anti-environmental worldview might rate products more negatively when the product's environmental credentials are mentioned, presumably because these credentials are not congruent with self-identity.

We find that 10 emerging stock markets have high risk of contagion on the regional level but lower spillover with respect to the global markets, implying a potential for diversification benefits between emerging and global markets. Regional market integration seems to have been caused by trade integration, which has a policy implication for trade agreements’ systemic risk effects. We find that the geopolitical risk has no impact on either the return, or volatility spillovers. However, the general stock market risk (VIX) is connected to individual market volatilities, while the oil market is largely receiving the spillovers from the other markets. peerReviewed

Relationships with parents and peers are crucial for children's socialization, but how parent–child and peer relationships mutually affect each other is not well understood. Guided by spillover theory, we zoomed in on the bidirectional interplay between parental rejection and warmth on the one hand and peer victimization on the other, and examined whether children's maladjustment symptoms mediated hypothesized cross-domain spillover effects. Data stem from five waves of the longitudinal KiVa study among 9,770 children (50% boys; mean age = 9.16, standard deviation = 1.29). Results from random intercept cross-lagged panel models showed that higher parental rejection and lower parental warmth predicted increases in peer victimization and vice versa across waves, thus supporting the bidirectional model. Moreover, spillover from parent–child rejection and warmth to peer victimization was partially driven by children's depressive symptoms and bullying perpetration. Vice versa, spillover from peer victimization to parent–child rejection and warmth was partially driven by children's social anxiety, depressive symptoms, conduct problems, and bullying perpetration. Thus, children might get caught in persistent problems in two important social domains, and these two domains influence each other through children's maladjustment. Family and school interventions should be integrated to prevent a downwards spiral.

The relationship between the European stock market and the crude oil depends on the significance of the different industries in the European economy. The literature points to a structural change after the 2008 crisis without getting into details of which sectors lead this regime switch. The co-movement between oil prices and stock market is known to exhibit (1) non-linearity, (2) asymmetric tail dependence and (3) variation over time. I combine a copula approach with Switching Markov models to capture this complex linkage while the CoVaR measure translates the consequences of the tail dependence into potential losses. The results indicate a change in the lower tail dependence from negative to positive association between oil and Eurostoxx, meaning a shift in the exposure of our stock portfolio to commodity risk. There is a structural change in dependence after the 2008 financial crisis led by energy-intensive sector, e.g. basic materials and consumer goods. The economic cycle and its implications for profit margin and oil demand might explain this switch. Healthcare sector responds to oil shocks in an opposite way than Eurostoxx, displaying useful features to reduce the exposure of the stock portfolio to oil spillovers.

Over the last two decades, disaster events have affected tourist destinations in many countries around the world. Although disasters have attracted considerable attention in academia, little attention has been paid to the impacts of recurring disasters on the multiyear performance of the tourism industry in a specific country. This paper discusses the relationship between the performance of the tourism industry and disaster events and examines the spillover effects of disasters on the tourism sector in Indonesia. It also highlights the Indonesian policy responses in tourism following multiple disasters. The paper analyses the multiyear (1998-2016) performance of the tourism industry using the variables number of inbound tourists, national/regional income from tourism, and hotel room occupancy rates. Secondary data were collected from several sources, including legal documents, Indonesia’s tourism statistics, media outlets and newspapers articles. The results show that during the past 18 years, disasters have affected the performance of the tourism industry differently in terms of the scale of destruction, the location of disasters and the type of disasters (human vs. nature induced). The spillover effect between provinces has also been captured from the data. Overall, this paper argues that in dealing with multiple disasters over long periods of time, the continuation of regular tourism activities needs a structural approach in terms of policy responses.

The study considers an environmental R&D subsidy in a mixed duopoly with spillovers. Public and private firms compete in environmental R&D investments and the government sets the subsidy to environmental R&D. This study examines three cases: (a) the public firm cares for the environment and maximises the welfare; (b) it does not care for the environment and maximises the sum of consumer and producer surpluses net of subsidy; and (c) it is privatised and maximises its own profit. The main findings are as follows: 1) the optimal subsidies are positive in all three cases; 2) the optimal subsidy always increases with spillovers in case (a), but it may decrease with spillovers in cases (b) and (c); 3) the optimal subsidy is higher in case (a) than in case (b) if the seriousness of environmental damage generated by pollution is small, however the opposite case may be the case if it is large; 4) the use of subsidy results in higher total R&D and lower environmental damage in all three cases; 5) privatisation lowers optimal subsidy (or environmental damage) no matter whether the public firm cares for the environment or not; and 6) privatisation reduces welfare if the public firm cares for the environment, but may raise welfare if it does not care for the environment.

Background Measurement of health utilities is required for economic evaluations. Few studies have evaluated health utilities for rare conditions; even fewer have incorporated disutility that may be experienced by caregivers. This study aimed to (1) estimate health utilities for three rare conditions currently recommended for newborn screening at the state or federal level, and (2) estimate the disutility, or spillover, experienced by parents of patients diagnosed with a rare, heritable disorder. Methods A stated-preference survey using a time trade-off approach elicited health utilities for Krabbe disease, phenylketonuria, and Pompe disease at varying stages (mild, moderate, severe) and onset of disease symptoms (infancy, childhood, and adulthood). We recruited respondents from a nationally representative community sample (n = 862). Respondents valued disease specific health states in three consecutive question frames: (1) adult health state (> = 18 years of age), (2) child health state (

This paper presents an integrated granular framework of wavelet decomposition, DCC-GARCH, ADCC-GARCH, Diks-Panchenko nonlinear Granger’s causality and Diebold-Yilmaz spillover assessment techniques to understand temporal correlation, causal interplay and spillovers among volatile financial time series data exhibiting nonparametric behavior. The exercise has been carried out on daily closing observations of eight financial time series. Wavelet decomposition has been used to generate time varying components in which the other research models are applied to extract the interactive pattern of interaction to ascertain short and long run nexus. The findings rationalize the effectiveness of the presented research framework.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the spillover of returns, information and volatility of returns, and conditional variance-covariance between the stock markets of developed countries namely the United States of America, the United Kingdom and China (US, UK and CH) and the stock markets of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Bahrain) using daily returns spanned from 2 March 2003 to 9 December 2010. We consider shocks and volatility spillover model by applying a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model using; MGARCH-BEKK to identify the source and magnitude of volatility and shock spillover. We get the correlation between GCC markets is positive, indicating that there is a common factor which is driving the markets towards the same direction. Evidence shows that the own-shocks and volatility in GCC markets are highly significant. Cross-information spillover effects, as another observable trend, are found between Qatar and Oman. Furthermore, the results show that UA is significantly affected by spillover (return, shocks and volatility) from developed markets, while there have been no significant effects seen from Kuwait markets. This study takes a new empirical look in the sense that the models incorporating all the countries under investigation are estimated jointly utilizing multivariate GARCH-BEKK formulation. In addition, this paper should be interesting for academicians as well as practitioners. Including those interested in modelling multivariate volatility for financial market risk management.

We propose a method to evaluate public transport network vulnerability. We study the evolution of the passenger Volume Over Capacity (VOC) ratio throughout the network to measure the spatial and temporal extent of the impacts caused by an unplanned service segment disruption. The VOC ratio provides an indication of the on-board travel comfort, an important level-of-service indicator, as well as reflects the residual capacity for absorbing additional demand. Because of the dynamic nature of public transport systems, disturbances propagate through the network in both time and space. Our modelling approach is able to capture transit system dynamics and quantify the extent to which the network exhibits spillover effects. We apply the method to the case of the rapid public transport system of Stockholm Sweden We demonstrate how the changes in network saturation and the corresponding recovery time can be quantified.

The aim of this paper is to quantify the strength and the direction of semi-volatility spillovers between five EMU stock markets over the 2000–2016 period. We use upside and downside semi-volatilities as proxies for downside risk and upside opportunities. In this way, we aim to complement the literature, which has focused mainly on the contemporaneous correlation between positive and negative returns, with the evidence of asymmetry also in semi-volatility transmission. For this purpose, we apply the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) methodology, based on a generalized forecast error variance decomposition, to downside and upside realized semi-volatility series. While the analysis of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) is based on a stationary VAR, we take into account the long-memory behaviour of the series, by using the multivariate extension of the HAR model (named VHAR model). Moreover, we cast light on how the choice of the normalization scheme can bias the net-spillover computation in a full sample as well as in a rolling sample analysis.