Search

The selection of resilient cultivars could help stem the losses in forage production due to a changing climate. Secale strictum is a wild grass with interesting potential as a forage crop. We studied the germination requirements of six wild S. strictum populations, representative of the whole species distribution range in Italy and occurring under different osmotic conditions (0 MPa, −0.8 MPa, −1.0 MPa, −1.2 MPa, −1.4 MPa and −1.6 MPa). Our aim was to find beneficial seed and germination traits for the possible use of this species as a crop. Different accessions of domesticated Secale cereale and ×Triticosecale were used as comparison. Some populations of S. strictum were drought tolerant at germination level (final germination > 25% at −1.6 MPa). A great variability was observed among wild populations in traits that currently limit the cultivation of the species as a forage crop (seed size, germinability) and that could improve its usage, especially in arid areas (water stress tolerance, fast germination). A correlation exists between the germination rates of wild populations and the seasonality of the rainfall at their natural growing sites. These results underline the importance of choosing appropriate source lineages when selecting S. strictum populations for crop development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effects of climate change are particularly important in the Mediterranean Biodiversity hotspot where rising temperatures and drought are negatively affecting several plant taxa, including endemic species. Assisted colonisation (AC) represents a useful tool for reducing the effect of climate change on endemic plant species threatened by climate change.We combined species distribution models (SDMs) for 188 taxa endemic to Italy with the IUCN red listing range loss threshold under criterion A (30%) to define: (a) the number of AC (measured as 2 × 2 km grid cells that should be occupied by new populations, i.e. grid cells = new populations) required to fully compensate for predicted range loss and to halt the decline below the 30% of range loss; (b) The number of cells necessary to compensate for range loss was calculated as the number of currently occupied cells lost under future climate due to unsuitable conditions. We used two representative concentration pathways, +2.6 and +8.5 W/m2, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. Availability of suitable areas for AC was also assessed within the current species distribution and within protected areas.Under the optimistic scenario, no taxa would lose more than 30% of their range and AC would not be required. Under the pessimistic scenario, roughly the 90% of taxa showed a cell loss higher than 30%. Eight taxa were predicted to lose >95% of their range. For these species, AC was required from 13 to 16 new populations (=13–16 grid cells) per taxon to cap the range loss at 30%. For currently VU or EN species, an average number of 32–35 AC attempts would be necessary to fully compensate their range loss under a pessimistic scenario. Suitable recipient sites within protected areas falling in their projected range were identified, allowing for short‐distance AC.Synthesis. Combining species distribution models and red listing thresholds under Criterion A has enabled the strategic planning of multiple species assisted colonisation minimising the effort in terms of new populations to be created and maximising the conservation benefit in terms of range loss compensation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The assessment of the conservation status of a species is the first step in developing a conservation strategy. IUCN Red Lists assessments are an important starting point for conservation actions and the most commonly applied method for assessing the extinction risk of a species. In this study, the global conservation status of the rock rose Helianthemum caput-felis Boiss. (Cistaceae), a perennial Mediterranean plant, was evaluated using the Red List criteria. The distribution of the species was determined by monitoring historical localities and all other suitable sites along the western Mediterranean coasts for 6 years. For each confirmed locality, the ecological and population parameters and the main threats were recorded; these data were used in a quantitative analysis of the species' extinction risk. Our findings indicate there have been several recent extinctions, and there is a continuing decline in the species' area of occurrence, habitat quality and number of reproductive plants. The main threats are related to human activities. Extinction models indicate a probability of quasi-extinction risk of c. 30% in five generations or c. 45% in three generations, with the species likely to become extinct in seven currently known localities within the next 10 years. Application of the Red List criteria indicates H. caput-felis should be categorized as Endangered. This study confirms that legal protection and passive conservation measures are insufficient to guarantee the persistence of a plant species. Active conservation and management actions are needed to protect this and other threatened species of the Mediterranean Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change can have significant impacts on the survival of plant species. However, it is seldom included in the assessment of the extinction risk according to IUCN Red List criteria. Lack of data and uncertainties of predictions make difficult such inclusion. In our paper we present an approach, in which the effect of climate change on plant species spatial distribution is used to prioritize conservation within IUCN categories. We used, as a case study, 37 Italian policy species, relevant for conservation, and listed in the Habitat Directive and Bern Convention, and for which a Red List (RL) assessment was available. A stochastic SDM incorporating data on plant dispersal, generation length, and habitat fragmentation was used to predict a range shift due to climate change according to two climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). No species was predicted to become extinct in the considered timespans (2050 and 2070) due to climate change, and only two were characterized by critical decline probabilities. However, all taxa were potentially affected by climate change through a reduction of their range. In all RL categories, species with the highest predicted reduction of range were those from lowlands, where fragmentation of natural habitats has occurred in the last decades. In these cases, despite some limitations, assisted migration can be considered a suitable conservation option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]