Search

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change—for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events—affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species' distributions can take many different forms. For example, fat-tailed or skewed distributions are very common in nature, as these can naturally emerge as a result of individual variability and asymmetric environmental tolerances, respectively. Studying the basic shape of distributions can teach us a lot about the ways climatic processes and historical contingencies shape ecological communities. Yet we still lack a general understanding of how their shapes and properties compare to each other along gradients. Here, we use Bayesian nonlinear models to quantify range shape properties in empirical plant distributions. With this approach, we are able to distil the shape of plant distributions and compare them along gradients and across species. Studying the relationship between distribution properties, we revealed the existence of broad macroecological patterns along environmental gradients—such as those expected from Rapoport's rule and the abiotic stress limitation hypothesis. We also find that some aspects of the shape of observed ranges—such as kurtosis and skewness of the distributions—could be intrinsic properties of species or the result of their historical contexts. Overall, our modeling approach and results untangle the general shape of plant distributions and provide a mapping of how this changes along environmental gradients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competition plays an important role in shaping species' spatial distributions. However, it remains unclear where and how competition regulates species' range limits. In a field experiment with plants originating from low and high elevations and conducted across an elevation gradient in the Swiss Alps, we find that both lowland and highland species can better persist in the presence of competition within, rather than beyond, their elevation ranges. These findings suggest that competition helps set both lower and upper elevation range limits of these species. Furthermore, the reduced ability of pairs of lowland or highland species to coexist beyond their range edges is mainly driven by diminishing niche differences; changes in both niche differences and relative fitness differences drive weakening competitive dominance of lowland over highland species with increasing elevation. These results highlight the need to account for competitive interactions and investigate underlying coexistence mechanisms to understand current and future species distributions. Using a field experiment, this study shows that both lowland and alpine plant species experience greater competitive effects and a reduced ability to coexist towards their elevation range edges due to increased niche overlap and competitive inequality. These findings suggest competition helps set both lower and upper elevation range limits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding where, when and howspecies' ranges will be modified is both a fundamental problem and essential to predicting how spatio-temporal environmental changes in abiotic and biotic factors impact biodiversity. Notably, different species may respond disparately to similar environmental changes: some species may overcome an environmental change only with difficulty or not at all, while other species may readily overcome the same change. Ranges may contract, expand or move. The drivers and consequences of this variability in species' responses remain puzzling. Importantly, changes in a species' range creates feedbacks to the environmental conditions, populations and communities in its previous and current range, rendering population genetic, population dynamic and community processes inextricably linked. Understanding these links is critical in guiding biodiversity management and conservation efforts. This theme issue presents current thinking about the factors and mechanisms that limit and/or modify species' ranges. It also outlines different approaches to detect changes in species' distributions, and illustrates cases of range modifications in several taxa. Overall, this theme issue highlights the urgency of understanding species' ranges but shows that we are only just beginning to disentangle the processes involved. Oneway forward is to unite ecology with evolutionary biology and empirical with modelling approaches. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and other global change drivers threaten plant diversity in mountains worldwide. A widely documented response to such environmental modifications is for plant species to change their elevational ranges. Range shifts are often idiosyncratic and difficult to generalize, partly due to variation in sampling methods. There is thus a need for a standardized monitoring strategy that can be applied across mountain regions to assess distribution changes and community turnover of native and non‐native plant species over space and time. Here, we present a conceptually intuitive and standardized protocol developed by the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) to systematically quantify global patterns of native and non‐native species distributions along elevation gradients and shifts arising from interactive effects of climate change and human disturbance. Usually repeated every five years, surveys consist of 20 sample sites located at equal elevation increments along three replicate roads per sampling region. At each site, three plots extend from the side of a mountain road into surrounding natural vegetation. The protocol has been successfully used in 18 regions worldwide from 2007 to present. Analyses of one point in time already generated some salient results, and revealed region‐specific elevational patterns of native plant species richness, but a globally consistent elevational decline in non‐native species richness. Non‐native plants were also more abundant directly adjacent to road edges, suggesting that disturbed roadsides serve as a vector for invasions into mountains. From the upcoming analyses of time series, even more exciting results can be expected, especially about range shifts. Implementing the protocol in more mountain regions globally would help to generate a more complete picture of how global change alters species distributions. This would inform conservation policy in mountain ecosystems, where some conservation policies remain poorly implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Issue: Approaches to predicting species assemblages through stacking individual niche‐based species distribution models (S‐SDMs) need to account for community processes other than abiotic filtering. Such constraints have been introduced by implementing ecological assembly rules (EARs) into S‐SDMs, and can be based on patterns of functional traits in communities. Despite being logically valid, this approach has led to a limited improvement in prediction, possibly because of mismatches between the scales of measurement of niche and trait data. Evidence: S‐SDM studies have often related single values of a species' traits to environmental niches that are captured by abiotic conditions measured at a much finer spatial scale, without accounting for intraspecific trait variation along environmental gradients. Many pieces of evidence show that omitting intraspecific trait variation can hinder the proper inference of EARs from trait patterns, and we further argue that it can therefore also affect our capacity to spatially predict functional properties of communities. In addition, estimates of environmental niches and trait envelopes may vary depending on the scale at which environmental and trait measurements are made. Conclusion: We suggest that to overcome these limitations, surveys sampling both niche and trait measurements should be conducted at fine scales along wide environmental gradients, and integrated at the same scale to test and improve a new generation of spatial community models and their functional properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will likely reshuffle ecological communities, causing novel species interactions that could profoundly influence how populations and communities respond to changing conditions. Nonetheless, predicting the impacts of novel interactions is challenging, partly because many methods of inference are contingent on the current configuration of climatic variables and species distributions. Focusing on competition, we argue that experiments designed to quantify novel interactions in ways that can inform species distribution models are urgently needed, and suggest an empirical agenda to pursue this goal, illustrated using plants. An emerging convergence of ideas from macroecology and demographically focused competition theory offers opportunities to mechanistically incorporate competition into species distribution models, while forging closer ties between experimental ecology and macroecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Because climatic factors, especially temperature, show similar trends with elevation and latitude, it is often assumed that elevational gradients can be used as a proxy for understanding ecological processes along latitudinal gradients. We investigated the validity of this assumption for herbaceous plants, testing the hypotheses that (1) species reach the same climate limits, and (2) exhibit similar distribution patterns along both types of gradient. Location Swiss Alps and Scandinavia. Methods We recorded the occurrence of 155 ruderal plant species along an elevational gradient in the Swiss Alps and a latitudinal gradient, both reaching beyond the distribution limit of most species. Principal components analysis was used to summarize climatic variation in temperature and precipitation across these gradients and assessed the relationship across species between climatic limits along the two gradients. We used logistic regressions to compare how the probability of occurrence of individual species changed with climate along the two gradients. Results We found no correlation of species principal components analysis ( PCA) values (climate limit) along an elevational and latitudinal precipitation gradient ( PC1) but a positive correlation along a temperature gradient ( PC2). Species reached a colder climate limit (on average 244 growing degree days lower) and decreased in occurrence more gradually along the elevational compared to the latitudinal gradient. Main conclusions We suggest that the differences in distribution patterns and limits along similar climatic gradients are mainly due to the much shorter dispersal distances along elevational than latitudinal gradients, although other explanations are also possible. We can therefore expect plants in mountains and lowland regions to respond differently to rapid climate change, and so caution must be exercised when using elevation as a proxy for latitude in studies of species distribution. Nonetheless, comparative studies along such gradients can yield important insights into the factors that limit species distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]