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Climate change is causing shifts in species distributions worldwide. Understanding how species distributions will change with future climate change is thus critical for conservation planning. Impacts on oceanic islands are potentially major given the disproportionate number of endemic species and the consequent risk that local extinctions might become global ones. In this study, we use species climate envelope models to evaluate the current and future potential distributions of Azorean endemic species of bryophytes, vascular plants, and arthropods on the Islands of Terceira and São Miguel in the Azores archipelago (Macaronesia). We examined projections of climate change effects on the future distributions of species with particular focus on the current protected areas. We then used spatial planning optimization software (PRION) to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas at preserving species both in the present and future. We found that contractions of species distributions in protected areas are more likely in the largest and most populated island of São Miguel, moving from the coastal areas towards inland where the current protected areas are insufficient and inadequate to tackle species distribution shifts. There will be the need for a revision of the current protected areas in São Miguel to allow the sustainable conservation of most species, while in Terceira Island the current protected areas appear to be sufficient. Our study demonstrates the importance of these tools for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning for small islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceanic islands host a high proportion of the world's endemic species. Many such species are at risk of extinction owing to habitat degradation and loss, biological invasions and other threats, but little is known about the effects of climate change on island native biodiversity. The Azorean archipelago provides a unique opportunity to study species-climate-change relationships. We used ensemble forecasting to evaluate the current and future distribution of well-studied endemic and native bryophytes (19 species), endemic vascular plants (59 species) and endemic arthropods (128 species), for two of the largest Azorean Islands, Terceira and São Miguel. Using a Regional Climate Model (CIELO), and assuming the extreme scenario RCP8.5, we examined changes in the potential distributions of the species and possible loss of climate space for them. Models projected that 23 species (11 %) could lose all adequate climate on either one or both islands. Five additional species were projected to lose ≥90 % of climate space. In total, 90 % of the species were projected to lose climate space: 79 % of bryophytes, 93 % of vascular plants and 91 % of arthropods. We also found for vascular plants and arthropods a tendency for upward shift in altitude in their suitable climate space, while for bryophytes the shift was towards the coastal areas. Our results have profound implications for future conservation priorities on islands, such as for the redrawing of conservation borders of current protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Most habitats in the Azores have undergone substantial land-use changes and anthropogenic disturbance during the last six centuries. In this study we assessed how the richness, abundance and composition of arthropod communities change with: (1) habitat type and (2) the surrounding land-use at different spatial scales. The research was conducted in Terceira Island, Azores. In eighty-one sites of four different habitat types (natural and exotic forests, semi-natural and intensively managed pastures), epigaeic arthropods were captured with pitfall traps and classified as endemic, native or introduced. The land-use surrounding each site was characterized within a radius ranging from 100 to 5000 m. Non-parametric tests were used to identify differences in species richness, abundance and composition between habitat types at different spatial scales. Endemic and native species were more abundant in natural forests, while introduced species were more abundant in intensively managed pastures. Natural forests and intensively managed pastures influenced arthropod species richness and composition at all spatial scales. Exotic forests and semi-natural pastures, however, influenced the composition of arthropod communities at larger scales, promoting the connectivity of endemic and native species populations. Local species richness, abundance and composition of arthropod communities are mostly determined by the presence of nearby natural forests and/or intensively managed pastures. However, semi-natural pastures and exotic forests seem to play an important role as corridors between natural forests for both endemic and native species. Furthermore, exotic forests may serve as a refuge for some native species. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]