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The aim of the paper is to assess the causes of spatial variations in labour productivity of Italian regions using the gravitational model of economic growth. The model is an extension of Robert Solow's economic growth model. The model parameters are calibrated using historical data and numerical simulations of the long-run equilibrium states of the model are carried out. The scenarios considered in the paper vary in forecast investment rates, employment growth rates and urbanisation rates. Based on the results of numerical simulations, it is claimed that to achieve the full convergence in labour productivity, it is necessary to maintain higher investment rates in the south of the country than in Lombardy (by about 4%–11%), and to keep investment rates in central and northern Italy at a similar level as in Lombardy. The fall in investment has affected the poorest regions, Southern Italy, the most, followed by central Italy and the richest regions of the north of the country the least. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The task specialization literature suggests that migrant workers concentrate on physically intensive occupations, pushing natives towards less‐risky jobs. What is the effect of immigration on the severity of work‐related injuries? By matching administrative data on work‐related injuries and residence registries in Italy, this paper shows that migrant inflows lead to a reduction of physical impairment and injury‐related paid sick leave for native workers, independently from occupation and sector transitions. The effect is largest in manufacturing and construction and among the eldest employees. The analysis exploits spatial and temporal variation in foreign‐born residents' province shares and an instrumental variable strategy based on historical co‐national local settlements. To rationalize the underlying mechanism, we show that migrant workers sort into risky occupations and we study workforce composition effects. We rule out that the effect is due to higher unemployment among natives with lower education, more exposed to injury risks, or to native workers' local migration. Longitudinal worker‐level data from the Labor Force Survey show that native workers' transitions between sectors and occupations in response to immigration are not significant. Hence, our results suggest that the reduction in injury severity may result from a reallocation of riskier tasks from native workers, especially of older ages, to migrant workers, even when occupational transitions do not occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent study has proposed and tested a semi-empirical method to estimate crop irrigation based on a water balance logic and Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument (MSI) NDVI imagery. The current paper aims at extending the same approach to the analysis of the main irrigation patterns occurred in Tuscany (Central Italy) during the 2000–2019 period. This operation was made possible by feeding the irrigation water (IW) estimation method with 250-m spatial resolution Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI images. The results of this operation were first assessed versus various reference datasets available for the region; next, the annual maps of IW estimated for the 20 study years were analyzed at province scale in conjunction with relevant agricultural statistics. The use of MODIS in place of MSI images reduces the IW estimation accuracy irregularly at local scale, depending on the size and spatial arrangement of irrigated and non-irrigated fields; the reduction in accuracy is, however, marginal over relatively large areas. Irrigated crops are decreasing throughout most Tuscany provinces, while they are increasing in the most southern and driest province. The possible reasons and implications of these findings are finally discussed in relation to the main environmental issues affecting the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave of COVID-19 infections in (i) Italy, and, (ii) the New York Tri-State area. We use daily data on mobility between Italian provinces (province-level OD data) and between Tri-State Area counties (county-level OD data), and daily reported caseloads at the same geographical levels. Our empirical results indicate substantial predictive power, particularly during the early stages of the outbreak. Our model forecasts at least 85% of the spatial variation in observed weekly COVID-19 cases. Most importantly, our model delivers crucial metrics to identify target areas for intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the territorial difference in educational achievement is a widely debated topic, in particular in Italy for the presence of the well-known strong regional disparities. National and international large scale assessments confirmed that the main characteristic of the Italian school system is the geographical cleavage between North and South. Policymakers have pressing needs to find solutions to reduce geographical disparities. In this study, we investigate the spatial disparities of academic achievement from a new perspective, assuming that the relationship between academic achievement and predictors varies across Italy. Our aim is to examine the extent of the spatial disparities in the relationship between academic achievement and some school-level factors related to inequalities in educational outcomes, moving beyond the regional administrative confines, in order to identify new spatial patterns. We exploited the reading standardized tests administered by INVALSI in 2018–2019 focusing on the 8th-grade students. Crucial to our contribution is the use of the geographically weighted regression and the k-mean clustering, which allows studying the spatial variability of the impact of the school-level factors on academic achievement and to gather schools in new spatial clusters. The findings of this paper demonstrate the necessity to design a more specific education policy and support the identification of the main critical factors for different geographical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in informed and timely public health policies. In this paper, we use a spatio-temporal stochastic model to explain the temporal and spatial variations in the daily number of new confirmed cases in Spain, Italy and Germany from late February 2020 to mid January 2021. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we found that the temporal trends of the epidemic in the three countries rapidly reached their peaks and slowly started to decline at the beginning of April and then increased and reached their second maximum in the middle of November. However decline and increase of the temporal trend seems to show different patterns in Spain, Italy and Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studies on fertility determinants have frequently pointed to the role that socio-economic, cultural and institutional factors play in shaping reproductive behaviours. Yet, little is known about these determinants at an ecological level, although it is widely recognised that demographic dynamics strongly interact with ecosystems. This research responds to the need to enhance the knowledge on variations in fertility across space with an analysis of the relationship between fertility and population density of Italians and foreigners in Italy at the municipal level for the period 2002–2018. Using global and local autocorrelation measures and a spatial Durbin model, we show that there is a negative association between the fertility and population density of the Italian population, while the density of foreigners is correlated with higher fertility. This second result poses new insights on the relationship between space and fertility. Moreover, we find that the features of neighbouring areas, measured by population density, contribute significantly to explaining spatial fertility variation, confirming the importance of the study of spatial diffusion in demographic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The paper explores the role of Geographical Indications (GIs) in promoting the economic development of European regions. We consider all NUTS3 regions of Italy, France, and Spain between 1993 and 2014, and 728 GIs.. Our research aims to empirically assess the impacts of GIs on labor productivity and employment, for the agricultural and industrial sectors. We rely on a dynamic panel model and considere the spatial variation of the data. The main results show that GIs generate a positive impact on employment, both in the short and the long-run. Moreover, we find that the impact of GIs is not limited to the province where they are produced, but also triggers sizable spillover effects. Our results have important policy implications for further economic research. • GIs generate a significant socioeconomic impact in the short and long run. • The growth in GIs induces a positive employment effect for both agriculture and industry sectors. • The spatial analysis highlights sizable spillover effects of GIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating demographic parameters for wide‐ranging and elusive species living at low density is challenging, especially at the scale of an entire country. To produce wolf distribution and abundance estimates for the whole south‐central portion of the Italian wolf population, we developed an integrated spatial model, based on the data collected during a 7‐month sampling campaign in 2020–2021. Data collection comprised an extensive survey of wolf presence signs, and an intensive survey in 13 sampling areas, aimed at collecting non‐invasive genetic samples (NGS). The model comprised (i) a single‐season, multiple data‐source, multi‐event occupancy model and (ii) a spatially explicit capture‐recapture model. The information about species' absence was used to inform local density estimates. We also performed a simulation‐based assessment, to estimate the best conditions for optimizing sub‐sampling and population modelling in the future. The integrated spatial model estimated that 74.2% of the study area in south‐central Italy (95% CIs = 70.5% to 77.9%) was occupied by wolves, for a total extent of the wolf distribution of 108,534 km2 (95% CIs = 103,200 to 114,000). The estimate of total population size for the Apennine wolf population was of 2557 individuals (SD = 171.5; 95% CIs = 2127 to 2844). Simulations suggested that the integrated spatial model was associated with an average tendency to slightly underestimate population size. Also, the main contribution of the integrated approach was to increase precision in the abundance estimates, whereas it did not affect accuracy significantly. In the future, the area subject to NGS should be increased to at least 30%, while at least a similar proportion should be sampled for presence‐absence data, to further improve the accuracy of population size estimates and avoid the risk of underestimation. This approach could be applied to other wide‐ranging species and in other geographical areas, but specific a priori evaluations of model requirements and expected performance should be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Chironomids are probably the most speciose family among aquatic insects, colonizing almost all freshwater habitats. The emphasis of the present research is on: (1) taxonomic composition as the most efficient tool for describing biodiversity in natural habitats; and (2) natural habitat type as the most important factor able to explain different chironomid assemblages. This is because the habitat type summarizes a combination of different biotic and abiotic factors present at each site, determining taxa assemblages. Different spatial scales are often proposed as relevant factors for modeling community composition, but with regard to chironomids, spatial factors act only at a small scale, while environmental factors are the most important determinants for species distribution. Factors responsible for species distribution of benthic macroinvertebrates, including responses at different spatial scales, have been previously investigated. The aim of the present research was to review the most relevant factors explaining chironomid species distribution focusing on factors operating at different spatial scales, such as latitude, longitude, altitude, substrate, salinity, water temperature, current velocity, conductivity, acidity, dissolved oxygen, nutrient content etc. acting at regional levels and at a large or small water basin level. Data including chironomid species abundances from different lentic and lotic waters in Italy and other surrounding countries were analyzed using partial canonical correspondence analysis (pCCA) and multiple discriminant analysis (DISCR). Spatial analyses, including univariate Moran's I correlograms, multivariate Mantel correlograms and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEMs), were thereafter carried out. The results showed that habitat type, including different types of lotic waters (i.e., kryal, crenal, rhithral, potamal) and different lake types (i.e., littoral, sublittoral, profundal zones), is the most significant factor separating chironomid assemblages, while spatial factors act only as indirect influencers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spatial variation of ground motion (SVGM) can significantly affect the response of distributed infrastructure systems including bridges, dams, and pipelines. SVGM-related phenomena are the result of the combination of three effects: (1) wave passage, (2) geometric incoherence of the input, and (3) ground- and site-effects due to soil layering, the presence of topographic irregularities, and/or alluvial basins. Existing models are able to capture wave passage and geometric incoherence effects, while ground- or site-effects are either not modeled, or treated in a simplified manner. We perform a numerical experiment by means of the finite element method, exploring the combined effect of wave passage and the presence of 2D topographic features. Such combined effects were observed following recent earthquakes, but were never analyzed using a comprehensive set of numerical analyses. We explore two regularly shaped canyons (semi-circular and V-shaped) and a real case study for a canyon crossed by a multi-span bridge in Italy: the Viadotto Italia. We show that the combined effect of wave passage and topographic features can modify the amplitude and shape of the input motion, altering soil-structure interaction processes involving bridge piers. We also show that path effects, related to the direction of the input motion, have an influence on how input ground motions are modified. For all canyon shapes explored, there is a significant amplification of the vertical component of the motion that sometimes becomes comparable to the horizontal components. We anticipate that outcomes from this research would improve future engineering models and/or site-specific studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper identifies and analyses the role of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in affecting the spatial location of agricultural activities in an area of northern Italy. The study is based on survey data (300 observations) regarding the stated intentions of farm households under two CAP scenarios, and uses statistical analysis to identify the potential determinants of different farm reactions, using explicit spatial information (altitude, Less Favoured Area status, agrarian regions). The study demonstrates the relevance of explicitly addressing the differentiated spatial effect of the CAP on different dimensions of agricultural activities. However, the work also highlights the limitations of such a location-based analysis compared with both non-spatial variables and more 'functional' spatial variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis of a set of physico-chemical and biological water quality parameters, monthly collected from 2000 to 2007 in the Genoa Harbour area (Ligurian Sea). We applied multivariate methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA) for investigating the spatial and temporal variability and for providing important background information on pollution problems in the region. PCA evidenced the role of the sewage and river discharges and of the exchanges with the open sea in determining the harbour water quality. DFA was used to estimate underlying common trends in the time series. The DFA results partly show a general improvement of water quality over the 8-years period. However, in other areas, we found inter-annual variations but no significant multi-annual trend. Furthermore, we included meteorological variables in our statistical analyses because of their potential influence on the water quality parameters. These natural forcings explain part of the variability in water quality parameters that are superimposed on the dominating anthropogenic pollution factors. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Several recent models that have been put forth to explain bradyseism at Campi Flegrei (CF), Italy, are discussed. Data obtained during long-term monitoring of the CF volcanic district has led to the development of a model based on lithological-structural and stratigraphic features that produce anisotropic and heterogeneous permeability features showing large variations both horizontally and vertically; these data are inconsistent with a model in which bradyseism is driven exclusively by shallow magmatic intrusions. CF bradyseism events are driven by cyclical magmatic-hydrothermal activity. Bradyseism events are characterized by cyclical, constant invariant signals repeating over time, such as area deformation along with a spatially well-defined seismogenic volume. These similarities have been defined as "bradyseism signatures" that allow us to relate the bradyseism with impending eruption precursors. Bradyseism is governed by an impermeable shallow layer (B-layer), which is the cap of an anticlinal geological structure culminating at Pozzuoli, where maximum uplift is recorded. This B-layer acts as a throttling valve between the upper aquifer and the deeper hydrothermal system that experiences short (1-102 yr) timescale fluctuations between lithostatic/hydrostatic pressure. The hydrothermal system also communicates episodically with a cooling and quasi-steady-state long timescale (103-104 yr) magmatic system enclosed by an impermeable carapace (A layer). Connectivity between hydrostatic and lithostatic reservoirs is episodically turned on and off causing alternatively subsidence (when the systems are connected) or uplift (when the systems are disconnected), depending on whether permeability by fractures is established or not. Earthquake swarms are the manifestation of hydrofracturing which allows fluid expansion; this same process promotes silica precipitation that seals cracks and serves to isolate the two reservoirs. Faults and fractures promote outgassing and reduce the vertical uplift rate depending on fluid pressure gradients and spatial and temporal variations in the permeability field. The miniuplift episodes also show "bradyseism signatures" and are well explained in the context of the short timescale process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we assess the spectral characteristics of seismic noise at the sites of the Italian Seismic Network and its spatio‐temporal variability. The evaluation of noise is crucial for the assessment of the detection capability of a seismic network. We selected a set of 233 stations, those equipped with broadband velocimeters (with corner period > 40 s) and operating continuously for at least four consecutive years. The analysis was carried out in the frequency band from 0.025 to 30 Hz, in accordance with the seismic sensors bandwidth. We estimated the Power Spectral Density (PSD) of the seismic noise for fixed temporal windows and then we calculated the Probability Density Functions (PDF) at each station. Exploiting the large data set available, we have been able to: (a) describe the characteristics of the noise power at each site; (b) investigate both temporal and spatial variations of the background noise, revealing correlations of the noise levels with natural and anthropogenic noise sources; (c) propose an empirical relationship linking the "microseismic" noise (i.e., 0.12–1.2 Hz) with the geographical features of the site hosting the seismic station; (d) establish the baselines of a new seismic noise model that could be considered as a new reference for the Italian territory. Key Points: Background seismic noise from 233 Broad‐Band (BB) seismic stations has been analyzed by means of probability density function of power spectral densityTemporal and spatial variations of noise are ascribable to local geological, environmental, and geographical featuresA noise model of background seismic noise is proposed as a reference for Italy [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To better understand the pattern of variation in biocomplexity of springs and first‐order streams, it is essential to explore how the characteristics of spring communities may vary from the spring source (eucrenal) to the first reach of the originating springbrook (hypocrenal). For these reasons, we assessed spatial and temporal variation of crenic assemblages and leaf‐litter breakdown along a 45‐m reach of a spring–springbrook system in Central Italy. We found that physicochemical and hydrological parameters of Vera Spring did not vary significantly along the 45‐m reach investigated. In contrast, total richness of assemblages was significantly higher at 20 and 45 m from the spring source, while abundances were more variable and did not show significant differences between seasons and among sites. The composition of assemblages did not show significant temporal trends in all sites investigated, while spatial differences along the eucrenal–hypocrenal ecotone were more prominent. The functional organization of assemblages was relatively stable in both space and time, and no spatial differences were observed in the rate of leaf‐litter breakdown, though the dry mass loss of poplar leaves was slightly higher at the most downstream site. We conclude that immediately after groundwater emergence, spring communities are less stable and more variable while they tend to be better organized at short distance downstream. Small and gradual spatial changes in the strength of competitive interactions and predation pressures may have a fundamental role in structuring spring communities more than variation in abiotic parameters and/or differences in quantity and quality of food resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classical procedure of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) requires a Poissonian distribution of earthquakes. Seismic catalogues follow a Poisson distribution just after the application of a declustering algorithm that leaves only one earthquake for each seismic sequence (usually the stronger, i.e. the main shock). Removing earthquakes from the seismic catalogues leads to underestimation of the annual rates of the events and consequently associate with low seismic hazard as indicated by several studies. In this study, we aim investigating the performance of two declustering methods on the Italian instrumental catalogue and the impact of declustering on estimation of the b- value and on the seismic hazard analysis. To this end, first the spatial variation in the seismicity rate was estimated from the declustered catalogues using the adaptive smoothed seismicity approach, considering small earthquakes (M w ≥ 3.0). We then corrected the seismicity rates using new approach that allows for counting all events in the complete seismic catalogue by simply changing the magnitude frequency distribution. The impact of declustering on seismic hazard analysis is illustrated using PSHA maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration in 2 s, with 10 per cent and 2 per cent probability of exceedance in 50 yr, for Italy. We observed that the hazard calculated from the declustered catalogues was always lower than the hazard computed using the complete catalogue. These results are in agreement with previous results obtained in different parts of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is a zone where thermal, mechanical, and material interactions take place between the conductive mantle and the underlying convective mantle, and it plays an important role in plate tectonics. In this paper we focus on the thermal aspects of the LAB zone, based on a petrological study of a large peridotite complex that experienced exhumation in the solid state, for the most part. The complex of interest is the Lanzo Massif in the western Alps, northern Italy, where we were able to clarify its thermal and exhumation history and estimate the original thermal structure before exhumation. We examined plagioclase-bearing lherzolites collected from 16 localities, covering the entire massif. All the constituent minerals show compositional heterogeneities on the grain scale. The patterns of Ca, Al, and Cr zoning in pyroxene, the fluorescence-corrected Ca zoning of olivine adjacent to pyroxenes, the Cr and Al zoning of spinel adjacent to plagioclase, and the Ca and Na zoning of plagioclase suggest that an early, nearly isothermal decompression of the Lanzo Massif partly crossing the dry solidus was followed by monotonous cooling through the plagioclase-facies peridotite field. Various deformation microstructures allowed us to specify the timing of the deformation in the framework of the decompression history by carefully observing their relationships with the compositional zoning of the minerals. We show that the deformation took place mainly when effective cooling had started following a period of nearly isothermal exhumation. By applying several geothermometers and evaluating the compositional zoning of the minerals, we were able to quantify the spatial variations in the thermal and decompression history of the Lanzo Massif and constrain the timescales of decompression and cooling. All the estimated temperatures decrease from the southern body towards the northern body. The grain-scale patterns of zoning indicate that the temperatures recorded by the cores of orthopyroxene (1000–1200 °C) indicate a long period of residence in the mantle, whereas those recorded by the rims of pyroxenes and the cores and rims of olivine (600–1100 °C) represent closure temperatures at various times during the decompression. All the closure temperatures decrease from south to north, while the temperature differences between the cores and rims of orthopyroxene increase. This suggests that the cooler and probably shallower northern body cooled at a relatively slow rate than the hotter and probably deeper southern body. The decrease in temperature of ~60 K from south to north, calculated from orthopyroxene cores, may represent the geotherm near the LAB zone. A thermal gradient of ~10 K/km is indicated, which is significantly greater than that estimated for deep subcontinental lithosphere in a steady thermal state. Such a high geotherm might have been caused by thermal perturbation from the underlying hotter asthenospheric mantle. • The Lanzo massif was studied to estimate thermal structure near the ancient LAB. • Chemical zonings in all mineral grains indicate simple cooling of the massif. • Both closure and primary T decrease from south to north in the massif. • The variation of closure T indicate decreasing cooling rate from south to north. • The high primary thermal gradient is due to transient heating from asthenosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the "determinants" of spatial variations in youth unemployment and NEET rates, and the presence of spatial clusters, for Italy, Spain and the UK. We aggregate Labour Force Survey data for the period 1993–2018 to a "regional" level. We find that youths are sensitive to aggregate labor market conditions and a discouraged worker effect. In the UK and Spain, temporary jobs are more likely to be preferred to part‐time jobs, whereas in Italy the opposite occurs. There is evidence of spatial clustering of youth unemployment and NEET rates. We discuss the implications for place‐based regional and labor market policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the results of seismological and geophysical investigations performed by the "Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia" team operating in Amatrice village (Central Italy), in the emergency phases following the Mw 6.0 event of August 24th 2016, that caused severe damage in downtown and surrounding areas. Data from seven seismic stations equipped with both weak and strong motion sensors are analyzed in terms of standard spectral ratio to empirically define amplification function using a bedrock reference site. Ambient vibration spectral ratios between horizontal and vertical component of motion are also evaluated in a large number of sites, spread out in the investigated area, to recover the resonance frequency of the soft soil outcropping layers and to generalize the results obtained by earthquake data. Ambient noise vibration are also used for applying a 2D array approach based on surface waves techniques in order to define the near-surface velocity model and to verify its lateral variation. The results allows to better understand the amplification factors in the investigated area, showing spatial variation of site effects despite of the homogeneous shallow geological condition indicated by the microzonation studies available at moment of the described field campaign. The analysis reveals a diffuse amplification effect which reaches its maximum values in downtown area with a resonant frequency of about 2 Hz. The obtained results were used to integrate the microzonation studies and they can be used for urban planning and reconstruction activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The stationarity of rainfall annual maxima statistics is investigated in a northern Italian area characterized by important spatial variations in orography and precipitation climatology. Climatic changes in Italian recorded temperature series are widely acknowledged. In 2016, though, there is still discussion on the stationarity of the statistics of precipitation and its extremes in Italy. By means of standard hypothesis testing techniques, it is shown, for the first time in Italy, that changes in rainfall annual maxima climatology are indeed present in the period 1950-2005, relevant with regard to global climate change. In particular, in the rainy mountainous northwestern part of Lombardy, adjacent to the Swiss and Piedmont border, the annual maxima distribution for 6 to 24-h event durations significantly moves towards higher values when going from the first half (1950-1977) to the second half (1978-2005) of the period. It is remarkable, moreover, that for 1-h duration the distribution significantly moves towards lower values, suggesting a possible change in the precipitation regime. After compensating for data density changes by 'bootstrap' resampling, a median increase for all durations has also been confirmed for the (less rainy) Alpine area in northeastern Lombardy. Such changes in climatology have practical importance, because stationarity is a customary assumption when rainfall annual maxima frequencies are estimated for civil engineering. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coalescence and spatial variability of different thrust-related folding mechanisms involving the same mechanical multilayer along a curved thrust system are documented in this study. The field-based analysis of thrust-related folds spectacularly exposed in the Gran Sasso thrust system, Central Apennines of Italy, allowed us to reconstruct the interference fold pattern between fault-bend and fault-propagation folding. These two thrust-related folding mechanisms exhibit spatial variability along the differently oriented ramps of the curved Gran Sasso thrust system, passing from one style to the other. Their selective development is controlled by contrasting styles of compressional normal-fault reactivation related to positive tectonic inversion. Fault-bend and fault-propagation folding interact with a characteristic interference fold pattern in the salient apex zone of the curved thrust system due to their synchronous/in-sequence growth. This interference fold pattern might be helpful and predictive when reconstructing lateral variations in different thrust-related folds in similar subaerial or submarine thrust belts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When World War II ended in Italy, the violence did not. During the following year, about 10,000 individuals were summarily executed. Why does armed violence continue after a war’s end? Why do the victors kill the vanquished enemies? Why do they do so in certain places but not in others? We do not have sufficiently satisfying answers to these questions. The literature makes sense of violence if it happens during or preceding an armed conflict, but overlooks it when it occurs after the war is over. We need to fill this gap. Not only does post-conflict violence merit consideration as a phenomenon in itself but also it is crucial to understand postwar politics. The structured comparison of two provinces in Italy at the end of WWII shows that existing explanations cannot fully account for the spatial variation of the killings there. I offer an alternative argument: post-conflict violence aims to influence a country’s political future. In post-WWII Italy, the strategic calculations and the political preferences of former resistance combatants, combined with the legacy of the past war, determined the variation in the killings. Historical cases are a major untapped source of theory-building in conflict and peace studies. The micro-level dynamics generating violence at the local level often follow similar patterns across space and time. Thus, understanding extrajudicial executions in post-WWII Italy can illuminate today’s international intervention strategies addressing similar patterns of violence in different post-conflict settings. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We used simulation modelling to analyse spatial variation in wildfire exposure relative to key social and economic features on the island of Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational values and highly valued agricultural areas that are increasingly being threatened by severe wildfires. Historical fire data and wildfire simulations were used to estimate burn probabilities, flame length and fire size. We examined how these risk factors varied among and within highly valued features located on the island. Estimates of burn probability excluding non-burnable fuels, ranged from 0-1.92 x 10[sup -3], with a mean value of 6.48 x 10[sup -5]. Spatial patterns in modelled outputs were strongly related to fuel loadings, although topographic and other influences were apparent. Wide variation was observed among the land parcels for all the key values, providing a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk management activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The geometric shape is traditionally used to calculate phytoplankton cell measurements (e.g. biovolume), but it can also play an important role in determining community distributions. Little is known about how geometric shapes relate to other morphological traits or to the environment. We explored whether shapes and related morphological traits are selected by environmental forcing. For this, samples were collected seasonally at 21 stations in coastal-marine waters of the Salento Peninsula (Italy). Phytoplankton taxa were classified in terms of geometric shape, biovolume (organism size) and surface-to-volume ratio ( S: V). The relationship between greatest axial linear dimension (GALD) and S: V was assessed for each shape. A Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was performed to evaluate phytoplankton shape distribution on temporal and spatial scales. Phytoplankton community was characterized by high morphological diversity. GALD and S: V were inversely related in most of the shapes. CCA showed that phytoplankton shape distribution was influenced more by seasonal than by spatial variation: elongated shapes characterized the cold period; rounded and combined shapes the warmer period. Most of the shapes showed conservatism of the S: V and trade-off with the size. Geometric shapes represent an interesting feature to be considered in trait-based approaches to study phytoplankton distributions in aquatic ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1995 to 2004, in Genoa, Italy, daily concentrations of twelve polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were measured in particulate phase (PM10), around a coke oven plant in operation from the 1950s and closed in 2002. The study permitted to identify the coke oven as the main PAH source in Genoa, causing constant exceeding of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) air quality target (1.0 ng/m3) in the urban area till 1,900 meters distance downwind the plant. For this reason the plant was closed. Distance and daily hours downwind the coke plant were the main sources of variability of toxic BaP equivalent (BaPeq) concentrations and equations that best fitted these variables were experimentally obtained. During full plant activity, annual average BaPeq concentrations, measured in the three sampling sites aligned downwind to the summer prevalent winds, were: 85 ng/m3 at 40 m (site 2, industrial area), 13.2 ng/m3 at 300 m (site 3, residential area) and 5.6 ng/m3 at 575 m (site 4, residential area). Soon after the coke oven's closure (February 2002) BaPeq concentrations (annual average) measured in residential area, decreased drastically: 0.2 ng/m3 at site 3, 0.4 ng/m3 at site 4. Comparing 1998 and 2003 data, BaPeq concentrations decreased 97.6% in site 3 and 92.8% in site 4. Samples collected at site 3, during the longest downwind conditions, provided a reliable PAH profile of fugitive coke oven emissions. This profile was significantly different from the PAH profile, contemporary found at site 5, near the traffic flow. This study demonstrates that risk assessment based only on distance of residences from a coke plant can be heavily inaccurate and confirmed that seasonal variability of BaPeq concentrations and high variability of fugitive emissions of PAHs during coke oven activities require at least one year of frequent and constant monitoring (10-15 samples each month). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analysed the time evolution of the decay parameters of the L'Aquila aftershock sequence, neglecting spatial variability. During the first two months after the main shock, the sequence showed quite unusual properties: a particularly slow decay of the aftershock rate that progressively accelerated and a very scarce sensitivity to the occurrence of strong aftershocks. In the first few days, the decrease of the aftershock rate was compatible with an Omori's process with power-law exponent p ≈ 0.5. The successive increase of the exponent up to about p = 1.2 in the following months can be interpreted as the emergence of a negative exponential regime that has been found to control the decay of other sequences occurred in Italy and California. In fact, two decay models, even including a negative exponential term, reproduce the aftershock rate in the first 60 days significantly better than the Omori's law according to the Akaike information criteria. In this time interval, the strongest aftershocks do not seem to have produced significant increases of the aftershock rate while a couple of them seem to be preceded, rather than followed, by a slight increase of the rate. Consequently, epidemic models do not perform significantly better than non-epidemic ones for durations shorter than 60-80 days. A slow change of decay parameters seems to have been preceded a clear increase of the rate occurred 80 days after the main shock in correspondence of a relatively strong aftershock in the main fault area and of the activation of a previously silent fault segment in the NW. As a consequence of such reactivation, epidemic models become preferable with respect to non-epidemic ones for longer durations. The L'Aquila main shock productivity is the highest ever observed in Italy since the installation of a modern seismic network in Italy in mid 1980s, as the number of generated aftershock is from three to 10 times higher than for any previous earthquake of similar magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]