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Fagus sylvatica forests are considered to be of Community interest according to Directive 92/43/EEC. Climate change predictions for Spain point to a warming scenario, coupled with decreasing rainfall, which may have an impact on their future distribution particularly at the extremes of its distribution area. Species distribution models incorporating bioclimatic, topographic and phytogeographic variables were used as predictors to assess their habitat suitability under current conditions and a climate change projection. Ten single models were generated and an ensemble-forecasting model was subsequently built by computing a consensus of single-model projections. The results revealed that ombrothermic indices are the main factors controlling the distribution of Spanish beech forests. They are highly vulnerable to climate change and could suffer a decline in their habitat suitability if climate trends observed are maintained in the future. The least favoured areas for them will be located close to the limit between the Temperate and Mediterranean climates, where they could suffer a loss of habitat suitability. Conversely, suitable new areas could be found mainly in western areas of the Cantabrian Range and in the Central Pyrenees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reports the results of the analysis of annual mean temperature and precipitation series from 171 meteorological stations distributed over Castile and Leon [Castilla y León in Spanish] in Spain on monthly, seasonal and annual time-scales for a 37-year study period (1961–1997). Various statistical tools were used to detect and characterize significant changes in these series. The magnitude of the trends was derived from the slopes of the regression lines using the least squares method, and the statistical significance was determined by means of nonparametric tests. Positive trends of about 0.33 °C in the annual mean temperature were found for the whole period. Mean temperatures increased in spring and winter, the winter trend being statistically significant. The months of December and March also showed significant trends. Decreases in rainfall were found for three seasons (winter, spring and autumn), with statistically significant trends in March. Summer precipitation showed slight increases over the 37-year period. On this basis, the authors consider that the increase in summer precipitation and the decrease in the range of average temperatures between the warmest and the coldest months of the year (continentality), point towards a trend to a more oceanic climate in Castile and Leon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The wine sector plays a key role in the domestic Spanish economy. • A new integrated methodology is proposed for assessing suitable areas for viticulture. • The Compensated Thermicity Index is useful to delimitate potential areas for viticulture. • The approach is a helpful tool for agronomic and oenological management. In 2018, Spain was the third largest producer and the leading exporter of wine in the world. Viticulture is an important economic activity in the Castilla y León region, and is an element capable of halting the flight from the countryside and favouring demographic settlement in rural areas. A new integrated methodology for characterizing and delimitating areas suitable for vineyard cultivation is proposed here. The approach combines traditional climate indices with others used in bioclimatology and with soil variables, and applies various statistical analyses to select the predictors that best characterize the vineyards. These predictors are then integrated in species distribution models and a geographic information system. The methodology was tested in the Denomination of Origin León (hereafter DO León) in northwest Spain. Ten single models using the maximum entropy modelling algorithm were run for each of the six wine-grape varieties. Single-model projections built as a consensus of the ten models into an ensemble-forecasting approach were later used to generate maps of suitable areas for each variety. The results confirm the delimitation of the DO León as a Denomination of Origin. The bioclimatic variables Compensated Thermicity Index and Continentality Index and the soil variables pH, Clay Content, Soil Retention Capacity and Soil Saturation Humidity are defining for all the varieties studied. Garnacha and Mencía were the most different varieties in relation to their bioclimatic and soil requirements. Suitability maps revealed that the DO could be extended into neighbouring areas up to 30 km around it. The proposed methodology is a useful tool for agronomic and oenological management; it allows a more effective selection of sites for new vineyards, improves vineyard management, and can even be used to protect territories with a historical and cultural heritage of grape cultivation, thus favouring demographic settlement in rural areas and avoiding depopulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the relationships between rainfall in Spain (1961–2010) and four teleconnection patterns on three time scales (monthly, seasonal and annual) using data from 144 meteorological stations. Spearman's test was used to carry out partial correlations, and spatial distribution maps of the correlation coefficients were generated with kriging method. We regionalise the study area into homogeneous areas containing weather stations with a similar precipitation response to the patterns. The links between precipitation and the NAO, AO and EA are generally positive in the east and negative in the west of Spain, whereas WeMO correlates positively in the north and negatively in the rest. As a general result, the winter months and winter season show the highest percentage of weather stations with statistically significant correlations. Spearman coefficients of up to 0.62 were found for the NAO, AO and EA. WeMO strongly correlates (values up to 0.55) from October to April. Five areas have been defined: centre/southwest, northwest, north, northeast, and southeast. The mode which best explains rainfall in the two western areas is the NAO; in the north, the WeMO exerts a notable influence; EA correlates better with precipitation in the two eastern zones, especially in spring, autumn and part of winter. They are better controllers of rainfall in these areas than in the whole of the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]