1. Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios
- Author
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Costa-Font, Joan, Wittenberg, Raphael, Patxot, Concepcio, Comas-Herrera, Adelina, Gori, Cristiano, di Maio, Alessandra, Pickard, Linda, Pozzi, Alessandro, and Rothgang, Heinz
- Abstract
This study examines the sensitivity of future long-term care demand and expenditure estimates to official demographic projections in four selected European countries: Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom. It uses standardised methodology in the form of a macro-simulation exercise and finds evidence for significant differences in assumptions about demographic change and its effect on the demand for long-term care, and on relative and absolute long-term care expenditure. It concludes that mortality-rate assumptions can have a considerable influence on welfare policy planning. Relative dispersion between country-specific and Eurostat official estimates was found to be higher for the United Kingdom and Germany than for Italy and Spain, suggesting that demographic projections had a greater influence in those countries.
- Published
- 2008
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