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Sustainable intensification (SI) is envisioned as an effective strategy for developing countries to increase farm productivity while reducing negative environmental and social externalities. The development of regionally appropriate SI options however requires accounting for the knowledge and preferences of key stakeholders. In Bangladesh, the Government has requested international donors to support the development of dry season rice expansion in the coastal region. Policies however tend to be made without adequate study of farmers' preferences and ambitions; this can render crop intensification efforts ineffective. Understanding farmers' preferences for alternative crops and crop management practices are therefore crucial for success where agricultural development investments aim at incorporating the principles of SI. Using coastal Bangladesh as a case study– we aim to (1) quantify farmers' preferences for alternative irrigated crop and crop management options in comparison to the status quo (land fallowing), (2) analyze whether farmers' preferences are conditioned by concerns regarding the cost and availability of irrigation and fertilizer inputs in comparison to expected net revenues, (3) understand how the heterogeneity in preferences can be attributed to farmer and/or farm characteristics, institutional, and biophysical factors, (4) determine how much farmers' are willing to invest in different crops and crop management options – including those reliant and not reliant on irrigation. Taking 300 farmers in two diverse coastal environments, a choice experiment (CE) was employed to explore the heterogeneity in farmers' preferences for different dry " rabi " season intensification options (' boro ' rice, maize, wheat and mungbean) against the status quo (dry season land fallowing after harvest of the monsoon season rice crop). Analyses included random parameter logit modeling followed by willingness-to-invest and profit simulations. Analyses revealed strong farmer preferences against rice and in favor of irrigated maize, and also in favor of rainfed or partially irrigated mungbean as an alternative to land fallowing. Irrespective of their location and environmental conditions, respondents had largely a negative preference for irrigation and fertilizer use due to high investment costs and associated production risks in the dry season. Nonetheless, a significant positive effect on their willingness-to-intensify cropping was observed where farmers felt it feasible to provide in-field drainage to limit waterlogging risks. The study signifies the importance of accounting for farmers' preferences while developing context-specific SI policies. Improving agronomic investments, tenure security, market, credit and extension support are likely prerequisites, alongside targeted diffusion of stress-tolerant mungbean and maize varieties for SI in coastal Bangladesh. Unlabelled Image • Government's policy encourages intensified cropping in the coastal region of Bangladesh. • Analyze farmers' preferences for alternative crop intensification options using a choice experiment. • Preferences against rice and in favor of mungbean, and maize as alternative to land fallowing. • Farmers' preference for non-rice crops in place of dry season land fallowing conflicts ongoing policy favoring rice. • Agronomic investments, tenure, markets, credit, and extension are prerequisites for sustainable intensification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal systems are facing natural and human-driven change coupled with a rising population. With increasing shifts in socioecological conditions during the past several decades, it is important to understand how socioecological drivers at different hierarchical levels: -micro, -meso, and -macro affect coastal farming systems, which play a crucial role in the livelihoods of coastal dwellers. Mixed rice-livestock-aquaculture farming in Southern Bangladesh exemplifies the rapid change occurring in many of the world's coastal farming systems in response to these drivers. We used panel data observations from the above study area and modeled trajectories of farm typologies, and the impact of multi-level socioecological drivers by a novel approach. Our approach integrates: (1) a well-articulated conceptual frame of change observed using (2) a temporal view of the potential drivers, change process and farm type outcomes, with the twenty years panel data of 502 households that is analyzed by means of (3) multivariate statistics in conjunction with panel data models that operationalize the conceptual frame. Our approach allows (a) estimating dynamic effects over time that typically cannot be estimated in a cross-sectional data set, (b) distinguishing between time-invariant fixed and time dependent random effects of multi-level socioecological drivers, and (c) controlling for omitted variables to a certain extent. Considering farming systems both within and outside of polder embankment systems intended to protect against oceanic water intrusion, we found a gradual shift from heterogeneous, rice-livestock farm types to more homogenous farms with less livestock and more off-farm activities. Micro-level factors including farm plot fragmentation, farmers' experience in cropping, machinery, salinity and soil fertility were influencing changes in farming systems. Meso-level factors including markets, road infrastructure, labor availability, access to extension and land tenure also affect the trajectory of farming systems change. Among macro-level drivers, increasing population density positively and significantly influenced cropping intensity among farms outside polder systems. Within polders, a positive but non-significant trend was observed for the influence of population density on cropping intensity. Our data also indicate negative and significant influence of cyclonic storms on cropping intensity over time in both areas. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for multiple levels of socioecological drivers of change when developing appropriate policy options for sustainable development in South Asia's coastal farming systems. • Agricultural changes in coastal Bangladesh over 20 years in response to external drivers. • Novel approach embedded in –micro–meso–macro modelling of trajectories of change. • Farming systems in Bangladesh show diverse complex spatio-temporal dynamics. • Heterogeneous, rice-livestock farms shifted to homogenous farms with off-farm income. • Effects of population pressure on cropping intensity are positive but inconsistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]