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In our earlier works (Ivanov and Miletsky, 2012, 2014), we demonstrated that (1) the evolution of average sunspot latitudes can be described by a universal latitude curve, the shape of which does not depend on the cycle amplitude and (2) at the cycle decline phase, these latitudes correlate well with the current level of solar activity. In this work, we demonstrate that these features of the latitude evolution of the cycle, as well as the empirical Waldmeier rule, can be described by a simple model of a convective α-ω dynamo in a thin spherical layer with the addition of some nonlinearities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a truncated dynamo model and observations of the sunspot number to infer cycle-to-cycle variations of several dynamo parameters. A correlation study between model parameters and solar cycle observables (period, amplitude, and rising time) is done, and our results are compared with the results of other authors. Using the strongest correlations found, we determined a series of relationships that can be used for prediction purposes. This technique indicates that solar cycle 24 will have a sunspot maximum of approximately 84 around June of 2013. In the context of the used model, most of the variability found in the solar cycle can be attributed to changes in the strength of the meridional circulation. The results also point to a common origin for the source of variation of the meridional flow and differential rotation and/or the α-effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a study of a solar dynamo model operating in the bulk of the convection zone with the toroidal magnetic field flux concentrated in the subsurface rotational shear layer. We explore how this type of dynamo may depend on spatial variations of turbulent parameters and on the differential rotation near the surface. The mean-field dynamo model takes into account the evolution of magnetic helicity and describes its nonlinear feedback on the generation of large-scale magnetic field by the α-effect. We compare the magnetic cycle characteristics predicted by the model, including the cycle asymmetry (associated with the growth and decay times) and the duration--amplitude relation (Waldmeier's effects), with the observed sunspot cycle properties. We show that the model qualitatively reproduces the basic properties of the solar cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This review provides an introduction to the generation and evolution of the Sun’s magnetic field, summarising both observational evidence and theoretical models. The eleven year solar cycle, which is well known from a variety of observed quantities, strongly supports the idea of a large-scale solar dynamo. Current theoretical ideas on the location and mechanism of this dynamo are presented. The solar cycle influences the behaviour of the global coronal magnetic field and it is the eruptions of this field that can impact on the Earth’s environment. These global coronal variations can be modelled to a surprising degree of accuracy. Recent high resolution observations of the Sun’s magnetic field in quiet regions, away from sunspots, show that there is a continual evolution of a small-scale magnetic field, presumably produced by small-scale dynamo action in the solar interior. Sunspots, a natural consequence of the large-scale dynamo, emerge, evolve and disperse over a period of several days. Numerical simulations can help to determine the physical processes governing the emergence of sunspots. We discuss the interaction of these emerging fields with the pre-existing coronal field, resulting in a variety of dynamic phenomena. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798 - 2010. The analysis shows that spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition toward an active Sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to that of cycles 12, 14, and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as much as 20±8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the varying relative amplitude of the respective geomagnetic activity peaks. As the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity peaks are caused by different solar agents, related to the solar toroidal and poloidal fields, respectively, we use their variations to derive the parameters of the solar dynamo transforming the poloidal field into toroidal field and back. We find that in the last 12 cycles the solar surface meridional circulation varied between 5 and 20m/s (averaged over latitude and over the sunspot cycle), the deep circulation varied between 2.5 and 5.5m/s, and the diffusivity in the whole of the convection zone was ∼108 m2/s. In the last 12 cycles solar dynamo has been operating in moderately diffusion dominated regime in the bulk of the convection zone. This means that a part of the poloidal field generated at the surface is advected by the meridional circulation all the way to the poles, down to the tachocline and equatorward to sunspot latitudes, while another part is diffused directly to the tachocline at midlatitudes, “short-circuiting” the meridional circulation. The sunspot maximum is the superposition of the two surges of toroidal field generated by these two parts of the poloidal field, which is the explanation of the double peaks and the Gnevyshev gap in sunspot maximum. Near the tachocline, dynamo has been operating in diffusion dominated regime in which diffusion is more important than advection, so with increasing speed of the deep circulation the time for diffusive decay of the poloidal field decreases, and more toroidal field is generated leading to a higher sunspot maximum. During the Maunder minimum the dynamo was operating in advection dominated regime near the tachocline, with the transition from diffusion dominated to advection dominated regime caused by a sharp drop in the surface meridional circulation which is in general the most important factor modulating the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Observations relevant to current models of the solar dynamo are presented, with emphasis on the history of solar magnetic activity and on the location and nature of the solar tachocline. The problems encountered when direct numerical simulation is used to analyse the solar cycle are discussed, and recent progress is reviewed. Mean field dynamo theory is still the basis of most theories of the solar dynamo, so a discussion of its fundamental principles and its underlying assumptions is given. The role of magnetic helicity is discussed. Some of the most popular models based on mean field theory are reviewed briefly. Dynamo models based on severe truncations of the full MHD equations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The running cross-correlation coefficient between solar-cycle amplitudes and rise times at a certain cycle lag is found to vary in time, when using the smoothed monthly-mean sunspot group numbers available for 1610 – 1995. It may be negative or positive for different periods of time. The Waldmeier effect (in which the rise times decrease with amplitude) is also found to be very weak for some cycles. This result represents an observational constraint on solar-dynamo models and can help us better understand the long-term evolution of solar activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Secular variations of solar activity (Gleissberg and Suess cycles) have approximately 80 – 130 and 200 year periods. They are manifested in both observed and proxy data. Here, we show that the basic dynamic features of the Schwabe cycle (asymmetry of its growth and decay phases) and secular cycles (multi-frequency structure and irregular Grand-extremes), as well as a connection between them, can be described by parameter tuning of the electromechanical “toy” dynamo system which has been widely used to model the inversions of the geomagnetic field. An amplitude-frequency diagram for the model magnetic flux has the same shape as the directly observed and reconstructed sunspot area indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss the current status of solar dynamo theory and describe the dynamo model developed by our group. The toroidal magnetic field is generated in the tachocline by the strong differential rotation and rises to the solar surface due to magnetic buoyancy to create active regions. The decay of these active regions at the surface gives rise to the poloidal magnetic field by the Babcock-Leighton mechanism. This poloidal field is advected by the meridional circulation first to high latitudes and then down below to the tachocline. Dynamo models based on these ideas match different aspects of observational data reasonably well. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measurements of the general magnetic field of the Sun seen as a star were performed over last 45 years by the CrAO and five other observatories (1968–2012, nearly 23 thousand daily strengths B ). Analysis of the B time series showed that the most substantial long-term period of the field variation is the Hale’s cycle 22 years, which cannot be explained by dynamo theory. It reveals a saw-edged profile, indicating perhaps a cosmic origin of the cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales. Drawing from dynamo theory, together with the empirical results of past solar activity and similar phenomena for solar-like stars, we show that the variability of the solar cycle can be essentially understood in terms of a weakly nonlinear limit cycle affected by random noise. In contrast to ad hoc “toy models” for the solar cycle, this leads to a generic normal-form model, whose parameters are all constrained by observations. The model reproduces the characteristics of the variable solar activity on timescales between decades and millennia, including the occurrence and statistics of extended periods of very low activity (grand minima). Comparison with results obtained with a Babcock–Leighton-type dynamo model confirm the validity of the normal-mode approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]