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Coastal systems are facing natural and human-driven change coupled with a rising population. With increasing shifts in socioecological conditions during the past several decades, it is important to understand how socioecological drivers at different hierarchical levels: -micro, -meso, and -macro affect coastal farming systems, which play a crucial role in the livelihoods of coastal dwellers. Mixed rice-livestock-aquaculture farming in Southern Bangladesh exemplifies the rapid change occurring in many of the world's coastal farming systems in response to these drivers. We used panel data observations from the above study area and modeled trajectories of farm typologies, and the impact of multi-level socioecological drivers by a novel approach. Our approach integrates: (1) a well-articulated conceptual frame of change observed using (2) a temporal view of the potential drivers, change process and farm type outcomes, with the twenty years panel data of 502 households that is analyzed by means of (3) multivariate statistics in conjunction with panel data models that operationalize the conceptual frame. Our approach allows (a) estimating dynamic effects over time that typically cannot be estimated in a cross-sectional data set, (b) distinguishing between time-invariant fixed and time dependent random effects of multi-level socioecological drivers, and (c) controlling for omitted variables to a certain extent. Considering farming systems both within and outside of polder embankment systems intended to protect against oceanic water intrusion, we found a gradual shift from heterogeneous, rice-livestock farm types to more homogenous farms with less livestock and more off-farm activities. Micro-level factors including farm plot fragmentation, farmers' experience in cropping, machinery, salinity and soil fertility were influencing changes in farming systems. Meso-level factors including markets, road infrastructure, labor availability, access to extension and land tenure also affect the trajectory of farming systems change. Among macro-level drivers, increasing population density positively and significantly influenced cropping intensity among farms outside polder systems. Within polders, a positive but non-significant trend was observed for the influence of population density on cropping intensity. Our data also indicate negative and significant influence of cyclonic storms on cropping intensity over time in both areas. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for multiple levels of socioecological drivers of change when developing appropriate policy options for sustainable development in South Asia's coastal farming systems. • Agricultural changes in coastal Bangladesh over 20 years in response to external drivers. • Novel approach embedded in –micro–meso–macro modelling of trajectories of change. • Farming systems in Bangladesh show diverse complex spatio-temporal dynamics. • Heterogeneous, rice-livestock farms shifted to homogenous farms with off-farm income. • Effects of population pressure on cropping intensity are positive but inconsistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Maize and wheat are proposed for diversification, but irrigation advice is limited. • Soil moisture content was above or near drained upper limit for depths below 0.5 m. • A significant effect of irrigation on yield was observed for maize only, in one year. • One irrigation, in addition to a starter irrigation, generally is sufficient to grow a crop. • Low-input maize cultivation is not always profitable and low fertilizer rates increase risk of negative returns. Further efforts are needed to combat poverty and agricultural productivity problems in the delta region of Bangladesh. Sustainable intensification of crop production through irrigation and production of cash crops such as maize and wheat might be a promising option to increase income and diversify food production. Only limited research has however been conducted on the potential of using surface water from canals as an irrigation source for maize and wheat production in the delta region. To better understand the contribution of shallow groundwater to crop production and number of irrigations needed for maize and wheat in this unique coastal environment, we conducted multi-locational trials on farmers' fields over three rabi seasons. In addition to soil moisture and salinity, we recorded the depth and salinity of the shallow water table throughout these experiments. Maize in particular requires considerable capital investment for seeds, fertilizer, irrigation and labor. Although farmers express wide interest in maize – which can be sold as a profitable cash crop into Bangladesh's expanding poultry feed industry – many of them are reluctant to invest in fertilizer because of the high entry costs. We therefore also investigated the profitability of growing maize under low and high (recommended) fertilizer regimens. Volumetric soil moisture at sowing and during the grain filling phase or at maturity indicated that there is ample supply of water in the profile. Most measurements were above the drained upper limit (DUL). We attributed this to the generally shallow water table depths, which never exceeded 2.75 m at any location, but generally stayed between 1–2 m depth throughout the season. The region's soil texture classes (clay loams, silt loams and silty clay loams) are all conducive for capillary rise of water into the rooting zone. Consequently, irrigation had a significant effect on maize yield in the driest winter only, whereas for wheat, it had no effect. The key for a successful maize and wheat production in the delta region of Bangladesh is to ensure a good crop establishment, which can be achieved with a starter and an additional irrigation at crown root initiation for wheat and at V6-8 for maize. Maize however is not always profitable. Compared to low fertilizer rates, higher rates reduced losses in low yielding site-years and increased profits in high-yielding site years. This indicates that it is advisable for farmers not to reduce fertilizer rates. Low-risk financial credit with rationally structured interest rates that allow farmers to invest in maize could potentially offset these constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]