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This research investigates the effects of land use/land cover (LULC) and demographical changes on runoff and erosion processes in the watersheds of border highlands in Serbia. It provides an interdisciplinary approach, linking demography (human geography) with physical geography (hydrology and geomorphology). (A) A predominant decrease in curve number (CN), a key hydrological indicator, is recorded in more than 20 watersheds in Eastern and Southeastern Serbia, largely due to continuous depopulation and abandonment of arable land over recent decades. In contrast, minor CN changes are dominant in over 10 watersheds in Western and Southwestern Serbia. (B) Through cluster analysis, four regions are spatially delineated by changes in four key indicators: runoff, soil erosion, agricultural land use, and rural population. Soil erosion change is correlated with the deagrarianisation and depopulation processes at a significance of p < 0.0001 with r = 0.580 and r = 0.629, respectively. The border watersheds are being studied for the first time using a complex approach that analyses the relationships between changes in demography, land use, surface runoff, and soil erosion. The study results contribute to a better understanding of sustainable land management and risk management in the hilly and mountainous border regions, which are particularly vulnerable to torrential flooding and soil erosion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The erosion potential model was applied to estimate the soil erosion status of rural settlements during the years 1971 and 2011. We used univariate and bivariate local Moran's I indices to detect and visualize the spatial clustering of settlements with respect to changes in erosion intensity and agricultural land use, as well as their mutual spatial correlation. The study area was differentiated into four statistically significant clusters using the calculated bivariate local Moran's I indices. The statistical analysis examined the two largest clusters, i.e., the high–high and low–low clusters, and the results of the research indicate that the first four principal components explained 70.50% and 73.47% of the total variance, respectively. In the high–high cluster, the low rates of erosion reduction (average Index Z = 98) in the most significant types of rural settlements were determined according to demographic indicators (i.e., the higher population vitality and population density, the smaller share of the old population and the lower average age of the population) and the large proportion of arable land and Neogene sediments. In the low–low cluster, high erosion reduction rates were detected (average index Z = 64). In this cluster, the more statistically significant influence of natural conditions in combination with demographic–agrarian processes (i.e., the larger share of the old population, the higher average age of the population, the lower vitality index and deagrarization) were decisive factors in changing erosion intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many Eastern European countries, the standard of living increased as a result of the process of industrialization in the second half of the 20th Century. Consequently, the population in rural areas with small-scale farming decreased due to the availability of employment elsewhere. This directly impacted soil erosion (and thereby sustainability of the land), but the degree and direction are not well known. This study investigates two municipalities within Serbia, their change in population and its impact on land use changes and soil erosion. The standard of living increased after the industrialization process in the 1960s within these municipalities. The erosion potential model is used to calculate gross annual erosion. The changes related to population and arable land in rural settlements are analyzed according to proportional spatial changes. The results show an overall decrease of erosion intensity in the study area. In addition, two basic findings are derived: first, the highest level of human impact on soil is in rural settlements at the lowest elevation zones, where erosion intensity shows the least amount of decrease; and, second, the most intensive depopulation process, recorded in higher elevation zones, indicates a rapid decrease of erosion intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]