1. Securing fuel demand with unconventional oils: A metabolic perspective.
- Author
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Manfroni, Michele, Bukkens, Sandra G.F., and Giampietro, Mario
- Subjects
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MULTIPLE scale method , *GASOLINE , *GASOLINE supply , *ENERGY consumption , *PETROLEUM industry , *PETROLEUM - Abstract
A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no 'good' or 'bad' primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society. [Display omitted] • A new method to assess if unconventional oils can provide energy security is shown. • The analysis of oil metabolic patterns sheds light on their feasibility and viability. • The profiles of oil product supplied and required must match in the long term. • High shares of unconventional crudes cause supply bottlenecks. • Expansion of US and EU fuel use patterns would result in gasoline and diesel shortage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2022
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