15 results
Search Results
2. Evolution and study of a copycat effect in intimate partner homicides: A lesson from Spanish femicides.
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Torrecilla, José L., Quijano-Sánchez, Lara, Liberatore, Federico, López-Ossorio, Juan J., and González-Álvarez, José L.
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HOMICIDE , *INTIMATE partner violence , *INJURY risk factors , *TIME series analysis , *VIOLENT crimes , *BIOLOGICAL evolution - Abstract
Objectives: This paper focuses on the issue of intimate partner violence and, specifically, on the distribution of femicides over time and the existence of copycat effects. This is the subject of an ongoing debate often triggered by the social alarm following multiple intimate partner homicides (IPHs) occurring in a short span of time. The aim of this research is to study the evolution of IPHs and provide a far-reaching answer by rigorously analyzing and searching for patterns in data on femicides. Methods: The study analyzes an official dataset, provided by the system VioGén of the Secretaría de Estado de Seguridad (Spanish State Secretariat for Security), including all the femicides occurred in Spain in 2007-2017. A statistical methodology to identify temporal interdependencies in count time series is proposed and applied to the dataset. The same methodology can be applied to other contexts. Results: There has been a decreasing trend in the number of femicides per year. No interdependencies among the temporal distribution of femicides are observed. Therefore, according to data, the existence of copycat effect in femicides cannot be claimed. Conclusions: Around 2011 there was a clear change in the average number of femicides which has not picked up. Results allow for an informed answer to the debate on copycat effect in Spanish femicides. The planning of femicides prevention activities should not be a reaction to a perceived increase in their occurrence. As a copycat effect is not detected in the studied time period, there is no evidence supporting the need to censor media reports on femicides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
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3. The economic value of time of informal care and its determinants (The CUIDARSE Study).
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Oliva-Moreno, Juan, Peña-Longobardo, Luz María, García-Mochón, Leticia, del Río Lozano, María, Mosquera Metcalfe, Isabel, and García-Calvente, María del Mar
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CONTINGENT valuation , *WILLINGNESS to pay , *OPPORTUNITY costs , *SOCIAL values - Abstract
Objective: The main aims of this paper are to analyse the monetary value of informal care time using different techniques and to identify significant variables associated with the number of caregiving hours. Data and methods: A multicentre study in two Spanish regions in adult caregivers was conducted. A total sample of 604 people was available. A multivariate analysis was performed to identify the variables associated with the number of hours of caregiving time. In the monetary valuation of informal care provided, three approaches were used: replacement cost method, opportunity cost and contingent valuation (willingness to pay and willingness to accept). Results: The main determinants of the amount of time of informal care provided were age, gender, the level of care receiver´s dependence and the professional care services received (at home and out of home). The value estimated for informal care time ranges from EUROS 80,247 (replacement cost method) to EUROS 14,325 (willingness to pay), with intermediate values of EUROS 27,140 and EUROS 29,343 (opportunity cost and willingness to accept, respectively). Several sensitivity analyses were performed over the base cases, confirming the previous results. Conclusions: Time of informal care represents a great social value, regardless of the applied technique. However, the results can differ strongly depending on the technique chosen. Therefore, the choice of technique of valuation is not neutral. Among the determinants of informal care time, the professional care received at home has a complementary character to informal care, while the formal care outside the home has a substitute character. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
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4. An index-based method for evaluating seismic retrofitting techniques. Application to a reinforced concrete primary school in Huelva.
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Requena-García-Cruz, María-Victoria, Morales-Esteban, Antonio, Durand-Neyra, Percy, and Estêvão, João M. C.
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REINFORCED concrete , *PRIMARY schools , *RETROFITTING , *NONLINEAR analysis - Abstract
A project named PERSISTAH (Projetos de Escolas Resilientes aos SISmos no Território do Algarve e de Huelva, in Portuguese) is being developed. It aims to cooperatively assess and improve the seismic vulnerability of primary schools in the Algarve (Portugal) and Huelva (Spain). A large number of schools have to be analysed. In order to determine which seismic retrofitting technique is optimal, an index-based method is presented in this paper. It considers three parameters: first, the efficiency of the seismic retrofitting technique in relation to the structural improvement obtained; second, the cost of the implementation of the retrofitting technique; and third, the architectural impact. It should be mentioned that a specific measurement for each solution according to its geometry has been performed. Also, coefficients to consider the singularities of each analysis and the importance of the parameters (number of buildings, typology, available funds, etc.) in the study are considered. The most representative primary school of Huelva has been chosen to test the index-based method. The most suitable retrofitting techniques for this type of buildings have been tested. The retrofitting technique which most increased the seismic performance has been the addition of X and V bracings within the building’s bays. Furthermore, the analyses have revealed that adding the retrofitting elements in the most vulnerable direction of the building provides a high efficiency. The results have also shown that implementing techniques of lower architectural impact gives acceptable results. The analysis of the mean damage level index has shown that the building would experiment a severe damage. All the retrofitting techniques applied have reduced it, at least, up to moderate damage. Finally, it should be noted that the position of the retrofitting elements is also paramount for providing an optimal retrofitting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
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5. Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries.
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Graefe, Andreas, Green, Kesten C., and Armstrong, J. Scott
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ELECTIONS & economics , *ECONOMETRIC models , *REGRESSION analysis , *FUTUROLOGISTS , *COEFFICIENTS (Statistics) - Abstract
Problem: Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts? Methods: To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, U.K., and the U.S. The guidelines direct forecasters using causal models to be conservative to account for uncertainty by (I) modifying effect estimates to reflect uncertainty either by damping coefficients towards no effect or equalizing coefficients, (II) combining forecasts from diverse models, and (III) incorporating more knowledge by including more variables with known important effects. Findings: Modifying the econometric models to make them more conservative reduced forecast errors compared to forecasts from the original models: (I) Damping coefficients by 10% reduced error by 2% on average, although further damping generally harmed accuracy; modifying coefficients by equalizing coefficients consistently reduced errors with average error reductions between 2% and 8% depending on the level of equalizing. Averaging the original regression model forecast with an equal-weights model forecast reduced error by 7%. (II) Combining forecasts from two Australian models and from eight U.S. models reduced error by 14% and 36%, respectively. (III) Using more knowledge by including all six unique variables from the Australian models and all 24 unique variables from the U.S. models in equal-weight “knowledge models” reduced error by 10% and 43%, respectively. Originality: This paper provides the first test of applying guidelines for conservative forecasting to established election forecasting models. Usefulness: Election forecasters can substantially improve the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models by following simple guidelines for conservative forecasting. Decision-makers can make better decisions when they are provided with models that are more realistic and forecasts that are more accurate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
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6. Socioeconomic differences in body mass index in Spain: An intersectional multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy.
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Hernández-Yumar, Aránzazu, Wemrell, Maria, Abásolo Alessón, Ignacio, González López-Valcárcel, Beatriz, Leckie, George, and Merlo, Juan
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SOCIOECONOMICS , *BODY mass index , *ACADEMIC achievement , *STATISTICAL correlation , *MEDICAL care - Abstract
Many studies have demonstrated the existence of simple, unidimensional socioeconomic gradients in body mass index (BMI). However, in the present paper we move beyond such traditional analyses by simultaneously considering multiple demographic and socioeconomic dimensions. Using the Spanish National Health Survey 2011–2012, we apply intersectionality theory and multilevel analysis of individual heterogeneity and discriminatory accuracy (MAIHDA) to analyze 14,190 adults nested within 108 intersectional strata defined by combining categories of gender, age, income, educational achievement and living situation. We develop two multilevel models to obtain information on stratum-specific BMI averages and the degree of clustering of BMI within strata expressed by the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). The first model is a simple variance components analysis that provides a detailed mapping of the BMI disparities in the population and measures the accuracy of stratum membership to predict individual BMI. The second model includes the variables used to define the intersectional strata as a way to identify stratum-specific interactions. The first model suggests moderate but meaningful clustering of individual BMI within the intersectional strata (ICC = 12.4%). Compared with the population average (BMI = 26.07 Kg/m2), the stratum of cohabiting 18-35-year-old females with medium income and high education presents the lowest BMI (-3.7 Kg/m2), while cohabiting 36-64-year-old females with low income and low education show the highest BMI (+2.6 Kg/m2). In the second model, the ICC falls to 1.9%, suggesting the existence of only very small stratum specific interaction effects. We confirm the existence of a socioeconomic gradient in BMI. Compared with traditional analyses, the intersectional MAIHDA approach provides a better mapping of socioeconomic and demographic inequalities in BMI. Because of the moderate clustering, public health policies aiming to reduce BMI in Spain should not solely focus on the intersectional strata with the highest BMI, but should also consider whole population polices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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7. Differences in labour participation between people living with HIV and the general population: Results from Spain along the business cycle.
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Peña Longobardo, Luz María and Oliva-Moreno, Juan
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HIV-positive persons , *JOB involvement , *POPULATION health , *BUSINESS cycles , *HIV infection epidemiology , *EMPLOYMENT - Abstract
Background: HIV/AIDS (Human immunodeficiency virus/Acquired immune deficiency syndrome) not only has a strong impact on the health of the worldwide population but also affects the labour status of HIV-positive people. The primary aim of this paper is to compare the labour participation of people living with HIV (PlwHIV) with the labour participation of the general population along the last business cycle in Spain. Method: The data used are from the Hospital Survey on HIV-AIDS, with a total sample size of 4,651 PlwHIV and the Labour Force Survey from 2001 to 2010, with a total sample size of 660,674 individuals as general population. Propensity Score Matching method was used to analyse the differences between the labour participation of PlwHIV and the general population. Additionally, several specific models categorised into different subgroups (gender, education, source of infection and level of defences) were also performed. Results: We identified a convergence in labour participation across the period in the two populations considered: PlwHIV was 23% less likely to have a job than the general population during 2001–2002 and 14% less likely during 2009–2010. This convergence is mainly explained by two facts: first, the positive evolution of people infected by sex; second, the change in the PlwHIV population composition with a decreasing weight of people infected by drug use throughout the decade. Thereby, at the end of period, there was no statistical difference in the employment rate between PlwHIV infected through sex and the general population but there was strongly difference in PlwHIV infected through drugs. Conclusion: Inmunological status, source of infection and level of education play a relevant role among the PlwHIV population when comparing their labour participation with the general population. In spite of this positive result, the likelihood of being employed in HIV-positive people continues to be different from that of non-carriers. Our study shows that institutional features of labour markets are relevant and should be considered in comparison between countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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8. The skills related to the early reading acquisition in Spain and Peru.
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Sellés, Pilar, Ávila, Vicenta, Martínez, Tomás, and Ysla, Liz
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IMMIGRANTS , *LANGUAGE awareness , *COMPREHENSIVE instruction (Reading) , *TEACHING , *PSYCHOLINGUISTICS - Abstract
This paper deals with the skills related to the early reading acquisition in two countries that share language. Traditionally on reading readiness research there is a great interest to find out what factors affect early reading ability, but differ from other academic skills that affect general school learnings. Furthermore, it is also known how the influence of pre-reading variables in two countries with the same language, affect the development of the reading. On the other hand, several studies have examined what skills are related to reading readiness (phonological awareness, alphabetic awareness, naming speed, linguistic skills, metalinguistic knowledge and basic cognitive processes), but there are no studies showing whether countries can also influence the development of these skills.Our main objective in this study was to establish whether there were differences in the degree of acquisition of these skills between Spanish (119 children) and Peruvian (128 children), five years old children assessed in their own countries and after controlling Economic, Social and Cultural Status (ESCS). The results show that there are significant differences in the degree of acquisition of these skills between these two samples. It's especially relevant, in these results, that the main predictor in a regression study was the country of origin, explaining a higher percentage of variance than other variables such as age differences, in months, or gender. These findings corroborate the results obtained in other studies with migrant population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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9. Relative age effect in elite soccer: More early-born players, but no better valued, and no paragon clubs or countries.
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Doyle, John R. and Bottomley, Paul A.
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META-analysis , *PSYCHOMETRICS , *SOCIAL statistics , *POISSON regression , *SOCCER players , *HEALTH - Abstract
The paper analyses two datasets of elite soccer players (top 1000 professionals and UEFA Under-19 Youth League). In both, we find a Relative Age Effect (RAE) for frequency, but not for value. That is, while there are more players born at the start of the competition year, their transfer values are no higher, nor are they given more game time. We use Poisson regression to derive a transparent index of the discrimination present in RAE. Also, because Poisson is valid for small frequency counts, it supports analysis at the disaggregated levels of country and club. From this, we conclude there are no paragon clubs or countries immune to RAE; that is clubs and countries do not differ systematically in the RAE they experience; also, that Poisson regression is a powerful and flexible method of analysing RAE data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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10. “Gaining or losing”: The importance of the perspective in primary care health services valuation.
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Martín-Fernández, Jesús, Ariza-Cardiel, Gloria, Peña-Longobardo, Luz Mª, Polentinos-Castro, Elena, Oliva-Moreno, Juan, Gil-Lacruz, Ana Isabel, Medina-Palomino, Héctor, and Del Cura-González, Isabel
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HEALTH care intervention (Social services) , *PRIMARY health care , *WILLINGNESS to pay , *HEALTH outcome assessment - Abstract
Rationale and objectives: Economic theory classifies an intervention as socially beneficial if the total Willingness to Pay (WTP) of those who gain exceeds the total Willingness to accept (WTA) of those who are harmed. This paper examines the differences in health system users’ valuation of a health care service in primary care setting based on the WTP and WTA perspectives, discussing the impact of personal and service variables, including risk attitudes, on these disparities. Method: Six hundred and sixty two subjects who asked for care in health centres in the Region of Madrid (Spain) were interviewed, using the contingent valuation method to estimate WTP and WTA. Patient sociodemographic characteristics, health needs, satisfaction with the service and risk attitude and behaviour under risk (measured by self-reported scales and lottery games respectively) were collected. Generalised Linear Models were used to estimate the association between the explanatory variables and the WTA/WTP ratio. Results: We obtained the WTA/WTP ratio for 570 subjects (mean 1.66 CI 95%: 1.53–1.79; median 1, interquartile range 1–2). People with higher education or in high social groups expressed WTA values closest to WTP. The opposite occurred in patients with the greatest health needs or who were born abroad. Self-reported expression of risk aversion appeared also related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. Satisfaction with the service evaluated was the most influential factor in the WTA/WTP ratio. Conclusion: Health need, difficulty in obtaining substitutes and satisfaction with the service could serve for profiling people averse to loss for health care services in primary care setting. Self-reported expression of risk aversion could also be related to increases in the WTA/WTP ratio. This would mean that these characteristics should be taken into account both in the design and implementation of new healthcare interventions, as in the making decision for disinvestment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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11. Socioeconomic characterization of regions through the lens of individual financial transactions.
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Hashemian, Behrooz, Massaro, Emanuele, Bojic, Iva, Murillo Arias, Juan, Sobolevsky, Stanislav, and Ratti, Carlo
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TAXATION of securities trading , *SOCIOECONOMIC factors , *ECONOMIC decision making , *ECONOMIC activity , *MACHINE learning , *ECONOMIC indicators - Abstract
People are increasingly leaving digital traces of their daily activities through interacting with their digital environment. Among these traces, financial transactions are of paramount interest since they provide a panoramic view of human life through the lens of purchases, from food and clothes to sport and travel. Although many analyses have been done to study the individual preferences based on credit card transaction, characterizing human behavior at larger scales remains largely unexplored. This is mainly due to the lack of models that can relate individual transactions to macro-socioeconomic indicators. Building these models, not only can we obtain a nearly real-time information about socioeconomic characteristics of regions, usually available yearly or quarterly through official statistics, but also it can reveal hidden social and economic structures that cannot be captured by official indicators. In this paper, we aim to elucidate how macro-socioeconomic patterns could be understood based on individual financial decisions. To this end, we reveal the underlying interconnection of the network of spending leveraging anonymized individual credit/debit card transactions data, craft micro-socioeconomic indices that consists of various social and economic aspects of human life, and propose a machine learning framework to predict macro-socioeconomic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2017
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12. Antifraud Editorial Policy in Spanish and Latin American Scientific Publication: JCR Social Sciences Edition.
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Hernández-Ruiz, Alejandra
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SCIENCE publishing , *FRAUD in science , *AUTHORS , *SOCIAL sciences , *EDITORIAL writing , *CONFLICT of interests , *ETHICS - Abstract
The process of publishing scientific papers should be based on universal principles of professional conduct: credibility, truth and authenticity. In academia, the inclusion of policies on ethical standards in journal instructions to authors could prevent misconduct and fraud in scientific publication. Due to the lack of attention to research ethics in the Social Sciences, in particular in Spain and Latin America, this research aims to analyze the scientific misconduct policy of the Spanish and Latin American journals in the JCR-Social Sciences Edition (2014). To achieve our goal, 104 selected journal instructions to authors were examined in relation to the following ethical principles: (1) the rights of people involved in the research; (2) the welfare of animals used in research; (3) conflicts of interest; and (4) publication issues. Our results suggest that publication issues such as unpublished research and the ban on simultaneous submission are the most frequently cited ethical issues. In spite of the efforts made by policy-making bodies to establish misconduct guidelines, very few journals adhere to ICMJE and COPE recommendations. Given the ethical heterogeneity evinced by our study, and by previous studies, it seems that the development of a uniform code of ethics in the field of Social Sciences may be required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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13. The Multi-Scale Network Landscape of Collaboration.
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Bae, Arram, Park, Doheum, Ahn, Yong-Yeol, and Park, Juyong
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MULTISCALE modeling , *DATA analysis , *DATA modeling , *MUSICIANS , *COMPACT discs , *COMMUNICATION - Abstract
Propelled by the increasing availability of large-scale high-quality data, advanced data modeling and analysis techniques are enabling many novel and significant scientific understanding of a wide range of complex social, natural, and technological systems. These developments also provide opportunities for studying cultural systems and phenomena—which can be said to refer to all products of human creativity and way of life. An important characteristic of a cultural product is that it does not exist in isolation from others, but forms an intricate web of connections on many levels. In the creation and dissemination of cultural products and artworks in particular, collaboration and communication of ideas play an essential role, which can be captured in the heterogeneous network of the creators and practitioners of art. In this paper we propose novel methods to analyze and uncover meaningful patterns from such a network using the network of western classical musicians constructed from a large-scale comprehensive Compact Disc recordings data. We characterize the complex patterns in the network landscape of collaboration between musicians across multiple scales ranging from the macroscopic to the mesoscopic and microscopic that represent the diversity of cultural styles and the individuality of the artists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2016
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14. Cities through the Prism of People’s Spending Behavior.
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Sobolevsky, Stanislav, Sitko, Izabela, Tachet des Combes, Remi, Hawelka, Bartosz, Murillo Arias, Juan, and Ratti, Carlo
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DATA analysis , *SOCIOECONOMICS , *MICROECONOMICS , *ECONOMIC impact analysis , *COMPARATIVE studies - Abstract
Scientific studies of society increasingly rely on digital traces produced by various aspects of human activity. In this paper, we exploit a relatively unexplored source of data–anonymized records of bank card transactions collected in Spain by a big European bank, and propose a new classification scheme of cities based on the economic behavior of their residents. First, we study how individual spending behavior is qualitatively and quantitatively affected by various factors such as customer’s age, gender, and size of his/her home city. We show that, similar to other socioeconomic urban quantities, individual spending activity exhibits a statistically significant superlinear scaling with city size. With respect to the general trends, we quantify the distinctive signature of each city in terms of residents’ spending behavior, independently from the effects of scale and demographic heterogeneity. Based on the comparison of city signatures, we build a novel classification of cities across Spain in three categories. That classification exhibits a substantial stability over different city definitions and connects with a meaningful socioeconomic interpretation. Furthermore, it corresponds with the ability of cities to attract foreign visitors, which is a particularly remarkable finding given that the classification was based exclusively on the behavioral patterns of city residents. This highlights the far-reaching applicability of the presented classification approach and its ability to discover patterns that go beyond the quantities directly involved in it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
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15. Alimentación y cultura en España: una aproximación desde la antropología social.
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Arnaiz, Mabel Gracia
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FOOD consumption , *MALNUTRITION , *SOCIAL groups , *SOCIAL sciences , *SOCIOECONOMICS , *FOOD preferences - Abstract
The food fact is essentially multidimensional: it goes between ecological, biological, psychological, socio-economic or political spaces. As other complex phenomena, today no one can deny that food should be studied from a cross-disciplinary perspective. In Spain, there are many studies made from experimental, social or human sciences that, using hyper-specialized knowledge, show nutritional, psychological or economic dimensions, e.g., of food preferences and aversions, food consumption or malnutrition. However, they are usually unidirectional approaches of the same phenomenon, supported by the frameworks of each epistemic science. Scientific collaboration includes scarcely closer disciplines. But sparing scientific intersections does not seem, as I will try to show in this paper, appropriate or useful. Especially when it is necessary to understand and solve problems, that affect social groups, operate in multiple and changing contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2010
- Full Text
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