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Non-ability-based confidence is confidence in one’s ability that is not calibrated to actual ability. Here, we examine what psychological factors are associated with possessing more or less confidence relative to one’s ability and to what extent genetic and environmental processes contribute to these links. Using data from the Texas Twin Project ( N = 1,588 participants, aged 7–15 years), we apply a latent variable residual approach to calculate non-ability-based confidence as self-rated confidence net of ability on standardized cognitive tests. Non-ability-based confidence was modestly heritable (9%–28%) and strongly positively correlated with the need for cognition, mastery goal orientation, grit, openness, and emotional stability. These correlations were partly mediated by genetic factors (57% of the association on average). This widespread pattern of associations between non-ability-based confidence and several other measures of thinking, feeling, and acting suggest that non-ability-based confidence can be conceptualized as a personality attribute.

Non-ability-based confidence is one of the most pervasive human psychological biases. It is a part of a family of confidence judgments, including overconfidence and metacognitive calibration accuracy, defined by a discrepancy between self-perception of ability and actual ability. Across many domains, most people exhibit some degree of miscalibration in their confidence. Some people may be overconfident and others are underconfident. Despite the prevalence of non-ability-based confidence, relatively little research has investigated how non-ability-based confidence develops and why some people are more or less confident than others despite sharing the same level of ability. We use a longitudinal dataset to explore the childhood predictors of adolescent non-ability-based confidence. Achievement growth in math and reading in childhood was modeled and used to predict adolescent non-ability-based confidence in math and reading. Results show that the initial level of achievement predicts lower non-ability-based confidence in math. On the other hand, a faster rate of achievement growth across childhood predicts greater non-ability-based confidence in reading. These results highlight how previous experiences inform people’s self-perceptions over and above their true abilities. Discussion focuses on the factors that shape non-ability-based confidence over the lifespan and the limitations of the current findings.