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In this paper, we estimate the impact on female labor force participation of a massive conditional cash transfer program—Universal Child Allowance, AUH—launched in Argentina in 2009. We identify the intention-to-treat effect by comparing eligible and non-eligible women over time through a diff-in-diff methodology. The results suggest a negative and economically significant effect of the program on female labor force participation. The disincentive to participate is present for married women, while the effect is not statistically significant for unmarried women with children. We also find evidence on the heterogeneity of the effect depending on woman’s education, husband’s employment status, number and age of children, and whether the woman is the main responsible of domestic chores. The relatively large value of the benefit and the fact that transfers are mostly directed to mothers may explain the sizeable effect of the program on female labor supply. The welfare implications of the results are not clear and deserve further inspection., Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales

In 2009 Argentina introduced a large poverty-alleviation program (AUH) that provides monthly cash transfers per child to households without workers in the formal sector. In this paper we study the potential unintended effect of this program on fertility. We apply a difference-in-difference strategy comparing the probability of having a new child among eligible and ineligible mothers both before and after the program inception. The intention to treat estimations suggest a significant positive impact on fertility in households with at least one child (around 2 percentage points), but no significant effect on childless households. Given the short time window since the implementation of the AUH, we are unable to identify whether this positive effect reflects changes in the timing of births or in the equilibrium number of children., Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales

The recent Universal Child Allowance program in Argentina provides monthly cash transfers to unregistered workers with children. As the program is accessible only to those who are not in formal employment, it may discourage workers transitions to the formal sector. In this paper we estimate this effect by comparing the transitions to registered jobs of eligible workers (with children) with a similar but not eligible group (without children) over time. The results suggest a statistically significant and economically large disincentive to the labor market formalization of the program beneficiaries. In contrast, there is no sufficient evidence for the existence of a significant incentive for registered workers to become informal. Fil: Garganta, Santiago. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina Fil: Gasparini, Leonardo Carlos. Universidad Nacional de la Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas. Departamento de Ciencias Económicas. Centro de Estudios Distributivos Laborales y Sociales; Argentina