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Physically based approaches for the regional assessment of slope stability using DEM topography usually consist of one-dimensional descriptions and include many simplifying assumptions with respect to more realistic, three-dimensional analyses. We investigated a new application of the well-known, publicly available software TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis) in combination with Scoops3D, to analyze three-dimensional slope stability throughout a digital landscape in a time-dependent fashion, typically non implemented in three-dimensional models. TRIGRS was used to simulate the dynamic hydraulic conditions within the slopes induced by a rainstorm. Scoops3D then used the resulting pore water pressure for three-dimensional stability assessment. We applied this approach to the July 2011 landslide event in Mt. Umyeon, South Korea, and results were compared with the landslide initiation locations reported for this rainfall event. Soil depth in the study area was described by three different simple models. Stability maps, obtained by the one-dimensional (TRIGRS only) and three-dimensional (TRIGRS and Scoops3D), time-dependent approaches, were compared to observations to assess the timing and locations of unstable sites by means of a synthetic index, previously specifically developed for dealing with point landslide locations. We highlight the performance of the three-dimensional approach with respect to the one-dimensional method represented by TRIGRS alone, and the consistency of the time-dependence of the results obtained using the combined approach with observations.

An accurate landslide-susceptibility assessment is fundamental for preventing landslides and minimizing damage. In this study, a new time-variant slope-stability (TiVaSS) model for landslide prediction is developed. A three-dimensional (3D) subsurface flow model is coupled with the infinite slope-stability model to consider the effect of horizontal water movement in the subsurface. A 3D Richards' equation is solved numerically for the subsurface flow. To overcome the massive computational requirements of the 3D subsurface flow module, partially implicit temporal discretization and the simplification of first-order spatial discretization are proposed and applied in TiVaSS. A graphical user interface and two-dimensional data visualization are supported in TiVaSS. The model is applied to a 2011źMt. Umyeon landslide in the Republic of Korea, and its overall performance is satisfactory. A new time-variant slope-stability model for predicting rainfall-induced landslides is developed.The three-dimensional subsurface unsaturated flow and an infinite slope-stability model are combined.A graphical user interface including input and output visualization is supported.

A rainfall induced slope failure is a common natural hazard in mountainous areas worldwide. Sudden and rapid failures which have a high possibility of occurrence in a steep slope are always the most dangerous due to their suddenness and high velocities. Based on a series of experiments this study aimed to determine a critical angle which could be considered as an approximate threshold for a sudden failure. The experiments were performed using 0.42 mm mean grain size sand in a 200 cm long, 60 cm wide and 50 cm deep rectangular flume. A numerical model was created by integrating a 2D seepage flow model and a 2D slope stability analysis model to predict the failure surface and the time of occurrence. The results showed that, the failure mode for the entire material will be sudden for slopes greater than 67°; in contrast the failure mode becomes retrogressive. There is no clear link between the degree of saturation and the mode of failure. The simulation results in considering matric suction showed good matching with the results obtained from experiment. A subsequent discarding of the matric suction effect in calculating safety factors will result in a deeper predicted failure surface and an incorrect predicted time of occurrence.

Many researchers have evaluated the influence of vegetation cover on slope stability. However, due to the extensive variety of site conditions and vegetation types, different studies have often provided inconsistent results, especially when evaluating in different regions. Therefore, additional studies need to be conducted to identify the positive impacts of vegetation cover for slope stabilization. This study used the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability Model (TRIGRS) to predict the occurrence of landslides in a watershed in Jinbu-Myeon, Pyeongchang-gun, Korea. The influence of vegetation cover was assessed by spatially and temporally comparing the predicted landslides corresponding to multiple trials of cohesion values (which include the role of root cohesion) and real observed landslide scars to back-calculate the contribution of vegetation cover to slope stabilization. The lower bound of cohesion was defined based on the fact that there are no unstable cells in the raster stability map at initial conditions, and the modified success rate was used to evaluate the model performance. In the next step, the most reliable value representing the contribution of vegetation cover in the study area was applied for landslide assessment. The analyzed results showed that the role of vegetation cover could be replaced by increasing the soil cohesion by 3.8 kPa. Without considering the influence of vegetation cover, a large area of the studied watershed is unconditionally unstable in the initial condition. However, when tree root cohesion is taken into account, the model produces more realistic results with about 76.7% of observed unstable cells and 78.6% of observed stable cells being well predicted.

This paper addresses the effects of extreme rainfall on the stability of cut slopes in Yen Bai city, Northern Viet Nam. In this area, natural slopes are excavated to create places for infrastructures and buildings. Cut slopes are usually made without proper site investigations; the design is mostly based on experience. In recent years, many slope failures have occurred along these cuts especially in rainy seasons, resulting in properties damaged and loss of lives. To explain the reason that slope failure often happens during rainy seasons, this research analyzed the influence of extreme rainfalls, initial ground conditions, and soil permeability on the changes of pore water pressure within the typical slope, thereafter determining the impact of these changes on the slope stability factor of safety. The extreme rainfalls were selected based on all of the rainfalls triggering landslide events that have occurred over the period from 1960 to 2009. The factor of safety (FS) was calculated using Bishop's simplified method. The results show that when the maximum infiltration capacity of the slope top soil is less than the rainfall intensity, slope failures may occur 14 hours after the rain starts. And when this happens, the rainfall duration is the deciding factor that affects the slope FS values. In short, cut slopes in Yen Bai may be stable in normal conditions after the excavation, but under the influence of tropical rain storms, their stability is always questionable.

In Korea, landslide damage areas have increased significantly from the 1990s to the 2000s owing to increases in rainfall intensity and the number of rainy days in addition to indiscriminate land development. This study was conducted to predict shallow landslide-prone areas by using the transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability model (TRIGRS). A landslide event that occurred on July 27, 2011, in Mt. Umyeon, Seoul, was modeled, and the stability results were compared with 140 observed landslide points in both time and location to evaluate the performance of TRIGRS. Simulated outcomes from five different raster cells of 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 m with the same background information were compared to identify the ultimate grid scale. The results revealed that in location estimation, smaller grid size resulted in more accurate results. However, the 10 and 15 m grid sizes gave better results in the timing assessment When the best grid size was considered TRIGRS overestimated t...

This study compares the performance of transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope stability (TRIGRS) model and time-variant slope stability (TiVaSS) model in the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. TRIGRS employs one-dimensional (1-D) subsurface flow to simulate the infiltration rate, whereas a three-dimensional (3-D) model is utilized in TiVaSS. The former has been widely used in landslide modeling, while the latter was developed only recently. Both programs are used for the spatiotemporal prediction of shallow landslides caused by rainfall. This study uses the July 2011 landslide event that occurred in Mt. Umyeon, Seoul, Korea, for validation. The performance of the two programs is evaluated by comparison with data of the actual landslides in both location and timing by using a landslide ratio for each factor of safety class ( $${\text{LR}}_{\text{class}}$$ index), which was developed for addressing point-like landslide locations. Moreover, the influence of surface flow on landslide initiation is assessed. The results show that the shallow landslides predicted by the two models are highly consistent with those of the observed sliding sites, although the performance of TiVaSS is slightly better. Overland flow affects the buildup of the pressure head and reduces the slope stability, although this influence was not significant in this case. A slight increase in the predicted unstable area from 19.30 to 19.93% was recorded when the overland flow was considered. It is concluded that both models are suitable for application in the study area. However, although it is a well-established model requiring less input data and shorter run times, TRIGRS produces less accurate results.

This study aims to assess the slope stability variation of Jeonbuk drainage areas by RCM model outputs based on A1B climate change scenario and infinite slope stability model based on the previous research by Choi et al.(2013). For a large-scale slope stability analysis, we developed a GIS-based database regarding topographic, geologic and forestry parameters and also calculated daily maximum rainfall for the study period(1971~2100). Then, we assess slope stability variation of the 20 sub-catchments of Jeonbuk under the climate change scenario. The results show that the areal-average value of safety factor was estimated at 1.36(moderately stable) in spite of annual rainfall increase in the future. In addition, 7 sub-catchments became worse and 5 sub-catchments became better than the present period(1971~2000) in terms of safety factor in the future.

This study aims to assess the slope stability variation of Jeollabuk-do drainage areas by RCM model outputs based on A1B climate change scenario and infinite slope stability model based on the specific catchment area concept. For this objective, we downscaled RCM data in time and space: from watershed scale to rain gauge scale in space and from monthly data to daily data in time and also developed the GIS-based infinite slope stability model based on the concept of specific catchment area to calculate spatially-distributed wetness index. For model parameterization, topographic, geologic, forestry digital map were used and model parameters were set up in format of grid cells(). Finally, we applied the future daily rainfall data to the infinite slope stability model and then assess slope stability variation under the climate change scenario. This research consists of two papers: the first paper focuses on the methodologies of climate change scenario preparation and infinite slope stability model development.

A three-dimensional (3D) seepage-flow numerical simulation model was developed for seepage analysis of a landslide dam. A 3D seepage-flow numerical simulation model coupled with a two-dimensional (2D) surface flow and erosion/deposition model was developed for seepage analysis of a slope due to a rainfall event. The conventional water-phase (one-phase) seepage-flow model assumed only water-phase flow in seepage analysis, which was inadequate for unsaturated soil domains. A water-air two-phase seepage-flow model that considers both the water and air phases in the seepage-flow process was also used for the seepage analysis. The pore-water pressure and moisture-content data obtained from the seepage-flow model were used to analyze the stability. Janbu’s simplified method and the extended Spencer method were used for the stability analysis. The numerical simulation results almost compared well with laboratory experimental measurements.

There has been an increase for the landslide areas and restoration expenses due, in large part, to the increased locally heavy rains caused by recent climate change as well as the reckless development. This study carried out a slope stability analysis by the application of distributed wetness index, using the GIS-based infinite slope stability model, which took the root cohesion effect into consideration, for part of Mt. Umyeon in Seoul, where landslide occurred in July 2011, in order to compensate the defects of existing analysis method, and subsequently compared its result with the case on the exploitation of lumped wetness index. In addition, this study estimated the distributed wetness index by methodology, applying three methods of specific catchment area calculation: single flow direction (SFD), multiple flow direction (MFD), and infinity flow direction (IFD), for catchment area, one of the variables of distributed wetness indices, and finally implemented a series of comparative analysis for slope stability by methodology. The simulation results showed that most unstable areas within the study site were dominantly located in cutting-area surroundings along with the residential area and the mountaintop and unstable areas of IFD and lumped wetness index method were similar while SFD and MFD provided smaller unstable areas than the two former methods.