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We estimated the generation interval distribution for coronavirus disease on the basis of serial intervals of observed infector-infectee pairs from established clusters in Singapore. The short mean generation interval and consequent high prevalence of presymptomatic transmission requires public health control measures to be responsive to these characteristics of the epidemic.

ObjectivesAsia's first national advance care planning (ACP) program was established in Singapore in 2011 to enhance patient autonomy and self-determination in end-of-life (EoL) care decision-making. However, no known study has examined the extent to which ACP in Singapore successfully met its aims. The purpose of the current study was to examine the attitudes of local healthcare professionals on patients’ autonomy in decision-making at the EoL since they strongly influence the extent to which patient and family wishes are fulfilled.MethodsGuided by the Interpretive-Systemic Framework and Proctor's conceptual taxonomy of implementation research outcomes, an interview guide was developed. Inquiries focused on healthcare professionals’ attitudes towards ACP, their clinical experiences working with patients and families, and their views on program effectiveness. Sixty-three physicians, nurses, medical social workers, and designated ACP coordinators who were actively engaged in ACP facilitation were recruited from seven major hospitals and specialist centers in Singapore through purposive sampling. Twelve interpretive-systemic focus groups were conducted, recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a thematic analysis.ResultsThe extent to which patients in Singapore can exert autonomy in EoL care decision-making is influenced by five themes: (i) collusion over truth-telling to patient, (ii) deferment of autonomy by patients, (iii) negotiating patient self-determination, (iv) relational autonomy as the gold standard and (v) barriers to realization of patient choices.Significance of resultsHealthcare practitioners in Asian communities must align themselves with the values and needs of patients and their family and jointly make decisions that are consistent and congruent with the values of patients and their families. Sensitivity towards such cross-cultural practices is key to enhancing ACP awareness, discourse, and acceptability in Asian communities.

Objective To develop a risk score for the real-time prediction of readmissions for patients using patient specific information captured in electronic medical records (EMR) in Singapore to enable the prospective identification of high-risk patients for enrolment in timely interventions. Methods Machine-learning models were built to estimate the probability of a patient being readmitted within 30 days of discharge. EMR of 25,472 patients discharged from the medicine department at Ng Teng Fong General Hospital between January 2016 and December 2016 were extracted retrospectively for training and internal validation of the models. We developed and implemented a real-time 30-day readmission risk score generation in the EMR system, which enabled the flagging of high-risk patients to care providers in the hospital. Based on the daily high-risk patient list, the various interfaces and flow sheets in the EMR were configured according to the information needs of the various stakeholders such as the inpatient medical, nursing, case management, emergency department, and postdischarge care teams. Results Overall, the machine-learning models achieved good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic ranging from 0.77 to 0.81. The models were used to proactively identify and attend to patients who are at risk of readmission before an actual readmission occurs. This approach successfully reduced the 30-day readmission rate for patients admitted to the medicine department from 11.7% in 2017 to 10.1% in 2019 (p Conclusion Machine-learning models can be deployed in the EMR system to provide real-time forecasts for a more comprehensive outlook in the aspects of decision-making and care provision.

Background: The Singapore national Advance Care Planning (ACP) programme was launched in 2011 with the purpose of ensuring that healthcare professionals are fully aware of patients’ treatment preferences. There is little research assessing the performance of such programmes in ethnically diverse Asian countries; hence, the purpose of this study was to qualitatively examine patients and caregivers’ experiences with the ACP programme. Method: We conducted interviews with 28 participants, thirteen of whom identified as proxy decision makers (PDMs) and the remainder as patients. Interviews focused on respondents’ experiences of chronic illness and of participating in the ACP programme. Textual data was analysed through a framework analysis approach. Results: Participants’ narratives focused on four major themes with 12 subthemes: a) Engagement with Death, factors influencing respondents’ acceptance of ACP; b) Formation of Preferences, the set of concerns influencing respondents’ choice of care; c) Choice of PDM, considerations shaping respondents’ choice of nominated health spokesperson; and d) Legacy Solidification, how ACP is used to ensure the welfare of the family after the patient passes. These findings led to our development of the directive decision-making process framework, which delineates personal and sociocultural factors influencing participants’ decision-making processes. Respondents’ continual participation in the intervention were driven by their personal belief system that acted as a lens through which they interpreted religious doctrine and socio-cultural norms according to their particular needs. Conclusion: The directive decision-making process framework indicated that ACP could be appropriate for the Asian context because participants displayed an awareness of the need for ACP and were able to develop a concrete treatment plan. Patients in this study made decisions based on their perceived long-term legacy for their family, who they hoped to provide with a solid financial and psychological foundation after their death. Published version Research for this paper was supported by the Agency for Integrated Care Singapore, which receives public funding from the Ministry of Health of the Singaporean Government. The funder has played no role in the study design; collection, analysis or interpretation of data, or preparation of the manuscript.

Background Frailty is frequently found to be associated with increased healthcare utilisation in western countries, but little is known in Asian population. This study was conducted to investigate the association between frailty and healthcare utilisation by care setting among community-dwelling older adults in Singapore.Methods We conducted a six-month look-back and six-month post-baseline analysis of healthcare utilisation. Data from a longitudinal population-based survey were linked with healthcare utilisation data obtained from an administrative database. Baseline frailty status was measured using the five-item FRAIL scale, which is categorised into three groups: robust (0), pre-frail (1–2), and frail (3–5). Healthcare utilisation included government primary care clinic visits, specialised outpatient clinic visits, emergency department visits, day surgery and hospitalisations. Multivariable logistic and negative binomial regression were applied to examine the associations between frailty with healthcare utilisation, controlling for other confounding variables. Results In our sample of 701 older adults, 64.8% were of robust health, 27.7% belonged to the pre-frail category, and 7.6% were frail. Compared to the non-frail group, frail individuals had a higher rate of specialised outpatient clinic visits (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 2.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2-6.5), emergency department visits (IRR: 3.1, 95%CI: 1.1-8.1), day surgeries done (IRR: 6.4, 95%CI: 1.3-30.9), and hospitalisations (IRR: 6.7, 95%CI: 2.1-21.1) in the six-months before the baseline and in subsequent six months (IRR: 3.3, 95%CI: 1.6-7.1; 6.4, 2.4-17.2; 5.8, 1.3-25.8; 13.1, 4.9-35.0; respectively). Frailty was also significantly associated with an increased in the number of specialised outpatient clinic visits, emergency department visits and hospitalisations in 6 months before and after baseline, with controlling for covariates. Conclusions Among community-dwelling adults, frailty was positively associated with the likelihood and the number of specialised outpatient clinic visits, emergency department visits, day surgeries and hospitalisations but no significant associations were observed with primary care utilization. The positive association was significant at 6-month before and after the baseline. As frailty is a potentially reversible health state with early screening and intervention, providing preventive activities that delay the onset or progression of frailty should have the potential effect on delaying secondary and tertiary care needs.

Background Around the world, different models of paediatric palliative care have responded to the unique needs of children with life shortening conditions. However, research confirming their utility and impact is still lacking. This study compared patient-related outcomes and healthcare expenditures between those who received home-based paediatric palliative care and standard care. The quality of life and caregiver burden for patients receiving home-based paediatric palliative care were also tracked over the first year of enrolment to evaluate the service’s longitudinal impact. Method A structured impact and cost evaluation of Singapore-based HCA Hospice Care’s Star PALS (Paediatric Advance Life Support) programme was conducted over a three-year period, employing both retrospective and prospective designs with two patient groups. Results Compared to the control group (n = 67), patients receiving home-based paediatric palliative care (n = 71) spent more time at home than in hospital in the last year of life by 52 days (OR = 52.30, 95% CI: 25.44–79.17) with at least two fewer hospital admissions (OR = 2.46, 95% CI: 0.43–4.48); and were five times more likely to have an advance care plan formulated (OR = 5.51, 95% CI: 1.55–19.67). Medical costs incurred by this group were also considerably lower (by up to 87%). Moreover, both patients’ quality of life (in terms of pain and emotion), and caregiver burden showed improvement within the first year of enrolment into the programme. Discussion Our findings suggest that home-based paediatric palliative care brings improved resource utilization and cost-savings for both patients and healthcare providers. More importantly, the lives of patients and their caregivers have improved, with terminally ill children and their caregivers being able to spend more quality time at home at the final stretch of the disease. Conclusions The benefits of a community paediatric palliative care programme have been validated. Study findings can become key drivers when engaging service commissioners or even policy makers in appropriate settings.

Background : Many middle- and high-income countries face the challenge of meeting preferences for home deaths. A better understanding of associated factors could support the design and implementation of policies and practices to enable dying at home. This study aims to identify factors associated with the place of death in Singapore, a country with a strong sense of filial piety. Settings/participants : A retrospective cohort of 62,951 individuals (≥21 years old) who had died from chronic diseases in Singapore between 2012–2015 was obtained. Home death was defined as a death that occurred in a private residence whereas non-home deaths occurred in hospitals, nursing homes, hospices and other locations. Data were obtained by extracting and linking data from five different databases. Hierarchical multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the effects of individual, clinical and system factors sequentially. Results : Twenty-eight percent of deaths occurred at home. Factors associated with home death included being 85 years old or older (OR 4.45, 95% CI 3.55–5.59), being female (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.16–1.25), and belonging to Malay ethnicity (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.82–2.01). Compared to malignant neoplasm, deaths as a result of diabetes mellitus (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.69–2.20), and cerebrovascular diseases (OR 1.28, 95% CI 1.19–1.36) were also associated with a higher likelihood of home death. Independently, receiving home palliative care (OR 3.45, 95% CI 3.26–3.66) and having a documented home death preference (OR 5.08, 95% CI 3.96–6.51) raised the odds of home deaths but being admitted to acute hospitals near the end-of-life was associated with lower odds (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.90–0.94). Conclusion : Aside from cultural and clinical factors, system-based factors including access to home palliative care and discussion and documentation of preferences were found to influence the likelihood of home deaths. Increasing home palliative care capacity and promoting advance care planning could facilitate home deaths if this is the desired option of patients. NMRC (Natl Medical Research Council, S’pore) MOH (Min. of Health, S’pore) Published version

Despite being simply defined as a process to further one's understanding about future medical care, the process of implementing advance care planning (ACP) within acute hospital settings can be complex.We describe different ACP service models adopted in Singapore, and the facilitators for, and barriers to, its effective implementation.Qualitative focus group study with thematic analysis.We purposefully sampled four stakeholder groups involved in the implementation of ACP. Our sample included 63 participants, 12 physicians, 15 nurses, 24 medical social workers, and 12 ACP coordinators from seven public hospitals and one specialist center.We describe three different acute-care models adopted in Singapore, differentiated by leadership approach, target population, delivery process, and job roles. Our results revealed nine themes, organized into four categories, including: (1) hospital culture (curative norms, absence of preference-supportive culture), (2) organizational priority and leadership (low priority on hospital agenda, inappropriate leadership), (3) goals and distinction (lack of shared purpose and goals, no clear differentiation from existing practices), and (4) work practices (pigeonholing of ACP practice, inappropriate resourcing, accountability and feedback).We learned that to implement ACP effectively in an acute-care setting, there needs to be a cultural and behavioral transformation, led by committed and empowered leaders. Organizations that can create a shared purpose built on an ethos of honoring patients' preferences, and support this with systematic processes and adequate resourcing, will be more equipped to implement ACP effectively.

ObjectiveThe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) integrated care pathway (ICP) programme was designed and implemented to ensure that the care for patients with COPD is comprehensive and integrated across different care settings from primary care to acute hospital and home. We evaluated the effectiveness of the ICP programme for patients with COPD.Design, setting and participantsA retrospective propensity score matched cohort study was conducted comparing differences between programme enrolees and propensity-matched non-enrolees in a Regional Health System in Singapore. Data on patients diagnosed with COPD who enrolled in the programme (n=95) and patients who did not enrol (n=6330) were extracted from the COPD registry and hospital administrative databases. Enrolees and non-enrolees were propensity score matched.Outcome measuresThe risk of COPD hospitalisations and COPD hospital bed days savings were compared between the groups using a difference-in-difference strategy and generalised estimating equation approach. Adherence with recommended care elements for the COPD-ICP group was measured quarterly at baseline and during a 2-year follow-up period.ResultsCompared with non-enrolees, COPD hospitalisation risk for ICP programme enrolees was significantly lower in year 2 (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.73; 95% CI 0.54 to 1.00). Similarly, COPD hospital bed days was significantly lower for enrolees in year 2 (IRR: 0.78; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.95). ICP programme patients had sustained improvements in compliance with all recommended care elements for patients with COPD. The overall all-or-none care bundle compliance rate had improved from 28% to 54%.ConclusionThe study concluded that the COPD-ICP programme was associated with reductions in COPD hospitalisation risk and COPD health utilisation in a 2-year follow-up period.

With an aging Singapore population, there is an increasing demand for dementia care. The present study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Primary Care Dementia Clinic (PCDC) in comparison with the Memory Clinic (MC; hospital-based) and other polyclinics.A quasi-experimental design was implemented. Effectiveness of PCDC was assessed through caregiver satisfaction, quality of life (caregiver-rated) and adverse events rates. Quality-of-Life measures using the EuroQol 5 Dimension Questionnaire (EQ-5D) at baseline, 6 months and 12 months was assessed. Costs were calculated from a societal perspective. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the PCDC was compared with MC and other polyclinics.The present study showed that quality of life and the rate of adverse events at 12 months were similar between the three groups. Caregiver satisfaction at 12 months was higher in the PCDC group when compared with other polyclinics. There were no observed differences in societal cost between the three groups. At 6-month follow up, direct medical costs for PCDC were significantly lower that of other polyclinics. At 12-month follow up, PCDC patients had higher Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) compared with the MC group.PCDC provided effective care, similar to care at MC and better than care at other polyclinics. Caregiver satisfaction was higher for the PCDC group, and PCDC patients had lower direct medical costs at 6-month follow up. Given these findings, adopting a PCDC model in other polyclinics in Singapore can be beneficial for optimal right siting of patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 479-486.

Introduction: Depression in the elderly is a major public health issue. Socioeconomic status (SES) and social support are strong risk factors for depression. This study aimed to investigate the influence of SES and social support in elderly depression, and the modifying effect of social support on the relationship between SES and depression. Materials and Methods: A community-based survey was conducted on residents ≥60 years old. Depressive symptoms were determined with scores ≥5 using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine the odds ratio (OR) of depressive symptoms with respect to SES and social support, and interaction terms between the two variables. Results: Of 2447 responses analysed, 188 (7.8%) respondents had depressive symptoms. Living in 2-room housing, living alone/with a domestic helper, infrequent leisure time with children/grandchildren or being childless, and feeling socially isolated were independently associated with depressive symptoms. Relative to residents living with spouse and children in 4-/5-room housing, the highest ORs for depressive symptoms were those living with spouse and children in 2-room (OR: 3.06, P

Background: Due to limited end-of-life discussions and the absence of palliative care, hospitalisations are frequent at the end of life among nursing home residents in Singapore, resulting in high health-care costs. Aim: Our objective was to evaluate the economic impact of Project Care at the End-of-Life for Residents in homes for the Elderly (CARE) programme on nursing home residents compared to usual end-of-life care. Design and settings/participants: Project CARE was introduced in seven nursing homes to provide advance care planning and palliative care for residents identified to be at risk of dying within 1 year. The cases consisted of nursing home residents enrolled in the Project CARE programme for at least 3 months. A historical group of nursing home residents not in any end-of-life care programme was chosen as the matched controls. Cost differences between the two groups were analysed over the last 3 months and final month of life. Results: The final sample comprised 48 Project CARE cases and 197 controls. Compared to the controls, the cases were older with more comorbidities and higher nursing needs. After risk adjustment, Project CARE cases demonstrated per-resident cost savings of SGD$7129 (confidence interval: SGD$4544–SGD$9714) over the last 3 months of life and SGD$3703 (confidence interval: SGD$1848–SGD$5557) over the last month of life (US$1 = SGD$1.3). Conclusion: This study demonstrated substantial savings associated with an end-of-life programme. With a significant proportion of the population in Singapore requiring nursing home care in the near future, these results could assist policymakers and health-care providers in decision-making on allocation of health-care resources.

ObjectiveTo describe the end-of-life care preferences of individuals, and to examine the influence of age and gender on these preferences.Design, setting and participantsA retrospective cohort study was conducted. Participants included all adults (≥21 years old) (n=3380) who had completed a statement of their preferences as part of a national Advance Care Planning (ACP) programme in Singapore. Data were extracted from the national and Tan Tock Seng Hospital ACP database.Main measuresEnd-of-life care preferences were obtained from the ACP document and differentiated by health status (healthy, chronically ill or diagnosed with advanced illnesses). To analyse the data, descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis were used.ResultsAcross healthy and chronically ill patients, the majority did not opt for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) or other life-sustaining measures. Among individuals with advanced illnesses, 94% preferred not to attempt CPR but 69% still preferred to receive some form of active medical treatment. Approximately 40% chose to be cared for, and to die at home. Age and sex significantly predict preferences in those with advanced illnesses. Older age (>=75 years) showed higher odds for home as preferred place of care (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.23 to 1.89) and place of death (OR 1.29; 95% CI 1.03 to 1.61) and lower odds for CPR (OR 0.31; 95% CI 0.18 to 0.54) and full treatment (OR 0.32; 95% CI 0.17 to 0.62). Being female was associated with lower odds for home as preferred place of care (OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.84) and place of death (OR 0.70; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.85) and higher odds for full treatment (OR 2.35; 95% CI 1.18 to 4.68).ConclusionThe majority preferred to not proceed with life-sustaining treatments, but there was still a strong preference to receive some form of limited treatment. Better understanding of end-of-life care preferences through ACP can better guide end-of-life care programme planning, and resource allocation decisions.

Background: Cost of informal care constitutes an important component of total dementia care cost. It also reflects resource utilization by patients and caregivers. We aim to quantify the informal cost of care for mild to moderate dementia patients.Methods: We recruited 165 patient–caregiver dyads with mild to moderate dementia. Informal care burden was assessed using the Resource Utilization in Dementia (RUD)-Lite instrument. A generalized linear model was fitted for association between cost of informal care and cognitive impairment, taking into account patient demographics, disease factors, and use of paid domestic help. Marginal estimates were obtained from the model for the purpose of illustration and discussion.Results: Total hours of informal care by primary caregiver doubled in moderate dementia patients, with 57.9% having paid domestic help to assist in care. Functional factors and use of paid domestic help were significantly associated with informal care costs. Costs were consistently higher for patients without paid domestic help for mild- and moderate dementia.Conclusion: This study demonstrates the informal care costs of caring for mild–moderate dementia patients in Singapore, with the unique cost savings provided by live-in paid domestic help, and potentially may aid policy-makers in allocation of resources and support to caregivers.

Introduction: This study determines the extent of, and factors associated with, delayed discharges for stroke patients from inpatient rehabilitation. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study utilising medical notes review was conducted at an inpatient rehabilitation centre in Singapore. Acute stroke patients (n = 487) admitted between March 2005 and December 2006 were studied. The primary measure was delayed discharge defi ned as an extension in inpatient stay beyond the planned duration. Factors associated with delays in discharge were categorised as individual, caregiver, medical and organisational. Results: There were a total of 172 delayed discharges (35.6%). The mean [standard deviation (SD)] length of stay was 40.5 days (SD, 19.5 days) and 25.8 days (SD, 11.4 days) for patients with delayed and prompt discharges, respectively. Mean extension of stay was 9.7 days (SD, 13.8 days). Caregiver-related reasons were cited for 79.7% of the delays whereas organisational factors (awaiting nursing home placement, investigations or specialist appointments) accounted for 17.4%. Four factors were found to be independently associated with delayed discharge: discharge to the care of foreign domestic helper, nursing home placement, lower admission Functional Independence Measure (FIM) motor score and discharge planning process. Conclusions: Our study suggests that caregiver and organisational factors were main contributors of delayed discharge. Targeted caregiver training and the provision of post-discharge support may improve the confidence of caregivers of patients with greater motor disability. The use of structured discharge planning programmes may improve the efficiency of the rehabilitation service. To reduce delays, problems with the supply of formal and informal post-discharge care must also be addressed. Key words: Caregiver, Discharge planning, Length of stay, Nursing home

Introduction: This paper aims to illustrate the use of computer simulation in evaluating the impact of a prototype automated dispensing system on waiting time in an outpatient pharmacy and its potential as a routine tool in pharmacy management. Materials and Methods: A discrete event simulation model was developed to investigate the impact of a prototype automated dispensing system on operational efficiency and service standards in an outpatient pharmacy. Results: The simulation results suggest that automating the prescription-filing function using a prototype that picks and packs at 20 seconds per item will not assist the pharmacy in achieving the waiting time target of 30 minutes for all patients. Regardless of the state of automation, to meet the waiting time target, 2 additional pharmacists are needed to overcome the process bottleneck at the point of medication dispense. However, if the automated dispensing is the preferred option, the speed of the system needs to be twice as fast as the current configuration to facilitate the reduction of the 95th percentile patient waiting time to below 30 minutes. The faster processing speed will concomitantly allow the pharmacy to reduce the number of pharmacy technicians from 11 to 8. Conclusion: Simulation was found to be a useful and low cost method that allows an otherwise expensive and resource intensive evaluation Key words: Automation, Dispensing, Manpower, Outpatient Pharmacy, Simulation model- ling, Waiting time

We evaluated the impact of Singapore's Medisave for Chronic Disease Management Program (CDMP) program for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.A longitudinal study comparing differences in compliance with recommended diabetes care processes and management strategies, hospitalization, and costs among the Medisave for CDMP participants and propensity-matched nonparticipants.Data on patients diagnosed with T2DM who participated in the Medisave for CDMP (n = 10,559) and eligible patients who did not participate (n = 22,089) were extracted from the National Healthcare Group (NHG) diabetes registry. Participants and nonparticipants were propensity-score matched. Processes of care, all-cause and diabetes-related hospitalization risk, and healthcare costs incurred in 2007, 2008, and 2009 were compared between groups. A difference-in-difference strategy and generalized estimating equation approach were used.Compliance with recommended processes of care improved significantly for program patients. Compared to nonparticipants, all-cause hospitalization risk for participants was significantly lower in 2007 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.76; 95% CI, 0.65-0.88) and 2008 (OR: 0.79; 95% CI, 0.68-0.92) but the difference was not statistically significant in 2009 (OR: 0.91; 95% CI, 0.79-1.05). Total healthcare cost was 14-15% lower for participants in 2007 and 2008 but not significantly different in 2009. Similar results were observed for diabetes-related hospitalization rates and inpatient costs. The policy did not have a significant impact on participants with wellcontrolled diabetes at baseline.The extension of Medisave coverage to outpatient treatment increased the compliance with the processes of diabetes care. The policy reduced hospitalization risk and total healthcare cost in the short term but effects were not sustained by the third year.

This paper is a country case study for the Universal Health Coverage Collection, organized by WHO. Woan Shin Tan and colleagues illustrate progress towards UHC and its monitoring and evaluation in Singapore. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Background The study objective was to compare physical function documented in the medical records with interview data, and also to evaluate hospital mortality predictions using pre-admission and on-admission functional status derived from these two data sources. Methods A prospective cohort study of 1402 subjects aged 65 years and older to the general medicine department of an acute care hospital was conducted. Patient-reported pre-admission and on-admission functional status for impairment in any of the five activities of daily living (ADLs) items (feeding, dressing, grooming, toileting and bathing), transferring and walking, were compared with those extracted from the medical records. For the purpose of mortality prediction, pre-admission and on-admission impairment in transferring from the two data sources were included in separate multivariable logistic regression models. We used a variable selection method that combines bootstrap resampling with stepwise backward elimination. Results For all ADL categories, the agreement between the data sources was good for pre-admission functional status (k: 0.53–0.75) but poor for on-admission status (k: 0.18–0.31). On-admission impairment was higher in the medical records than at interview for all basic ADLs. Using interview data as the gold standard, although sensitivity for pre- and on-admission ADLs was high (59–93%), specificity for on-admission status was poor (30–37%). The pre-admission models using interview data predicted mortality better than the model using medical records (c-statistic: 0.83 versus 0.82). Similar results were found for models incorporating on-admission functional status (c-statistic: 0.84 versus 0.81). However, the differences between the four models were not statistically significant. Conclusion Medical records can be a good source for pre-admission functional status but on-admission functional impairment was over-reported in the medical records. The discriminatory power of the hospital mortality prediction model was significantly improved with the incorporation of functional status information but it was not significantly affected by their time reference or source of data.

The aim of this study was to estimate the direct medical costs of COPD in two public health clusters in Singapore from 2005 to 2009.Patients aged 40 years and over, who had been diagnosed with COPD, were identified in a Chronic Disease Management Data-mart. Annual utilization of health services in inpatient, specialist outpatient, emergency department and primary care settings was extracted from the Chronic Disease Management Data-mart. Trends in attributable costs, proportions of costs and health-care utilization were analyzed across each level of care. A weighted attribution approach was used to allocate costs to each health-care utilization episode, depending on the relevance of co-morbidities.The mean total cost was approximately $9.9 million per year. Inpatient admissions were the major cost driver, contributing an average of $7.2 million per year. The proportion of hospitalization costs declined from 75% in 2005 to 68% in 2009. Based on the 5-year average, attendances at primary care clinics, emergency department and specialist clinics contributed 3%, 5% and 17%, respectively, of overall COPD costs. On average, 42% of the total cost burden was incurred for the medical management of COPD. The share of cost incurred for the treatment of conditions related and unrelated to COPD were 29% and 26%, respectively, of the total average costs.COPD is likely to represent a significant burden to the public health system in most countries. The findings are particularly relevant to understanding the allocation of health-care resources and informing appropriate cost containment strategies.

Tan WS, Heng BH, Chua KS, Chan KF. Factors predicting inpatient rehabilitation length of stay of acute stroke patients in Singapore. Objective To determine the predictors of hospital length of stay (LOS) of stroke patients at the point of admission. Design A retrospective cohort study. Setting An acute hospital rehabilitation center in Singapore. Participants Stroke patients (N=491) admitted between March 2005 and December 2006. Interventions None. Main Outcome Measures Rehabilitation LOS was calculated as the total number of rehabilitation days before discharge. We measured the functional status of patients by using the Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Results The median LOS was 29 days (mean = 30.8d). Independent clinical and sociodemographic characteristics found to significantly predict rehabilitation LOS were FIM motor score at admission, the presence of more than 3 comorbid conditions at admission, living with nonimmediate relatives before admission, and the hospital subsidy status of the patient. In particular, the admission FIM motor score explained 43% of the variation in LOS and decreased the LOS by approximately 1.1 days for each 1-point increase in score. Conclusion Patients' socioeconomic status and family structure was found to influence LOS and should be considered in allocating resources and determining treatment need. The extent of motor function of patients at admission is an important factor influencing rehabilitation LOS and is a useful tool for facilitating rehabilitation resource planning for stroke patients.

Introduction The treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) involves different care providers across care sites. This fragmentation of care increases the morbidity and mortality burden, as well as acute health services use. The COPD-Integrated Care Pathway (ICP) was designed and implemented to integrate the care across different sites from primary care to acute hospital and home. It aims to reduce the prevalence of COPD among the population in the catchment, reduce risk of hospital admissions, delay or prevent the progression of the disease and reduce mortality rate by adopting a coordinated and multidisciplinary approach to the management of the patients’ medical conditions. This study on the COPD-ICP programme is undertaken to determine the impact on processes of care, clinical outcomes and acute care utilisation. Methods and analysis This will be a retrospective, pre-post, matched-groups study to evaluate the effectiveness of the COPD-ICP programme in improving clinical outcomes and reducing healthcare costs. Programme enrolees (intervention group) and non-enrolees (comparator group) will be matched using propensity scores. Administratively, we set 30% as our target for proportion admission difference between programme and non-programme patients. A sample size of 62 patients in each group will be needed for statistical comparisons to be made at 90% power. Adherence with recommended care elements will be measured at baseline and quarterly during 1-year follow-up. Risk of COPD-related hospitalisations as primary outcome, healthcare costs, disease progression and 1-year mortality during 1-year follow-up will be compared between the groups using generalised linear regression models. Ethics and dissemination This protocol describes the implementation and proposed evaluation of the COPD-ICP programme. The described study has received ethical approval from the NHG Domain Specific Review Board (DSRB Ref: 2013/01200). Results of the study will be reported through peer-review publications and presentations at healthcare conferences.