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We investigate the restriction of animal movements as a method to control the spread of bluetongue, an infectious disease of livestock that is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the onset of climate change. We derive control policies for the UK that minimise the number of infected farms during an outbreak using Bayesian optimisation and a simulation-based model of BT. Two cases are presented: first, where the region of introduction is randomly selected from England and Wales to find a generalised strategy. This "national" model is shown to be just as effective at subduing the spread of bluetongue as the current strategy of the UK government. Our proposed controls are simpler to implement, affect fewer farms in the process and, in so doing, minimise the potential economic implications. Second, we consider policies that are tailored to the specific region in which the first infection was detected. Seven different regions in the UK were explored and improvements in efficiency from the use of specialised policies presented. As a consequence of the increasing temperatures associated with climate change, efficient control measures for vector-borne diseases such as this are expected to become increasingly important. Our work demonstrates the potential value of using Bayesian optimisation in developing cost-effective disease management strategies.

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) causes abortions, stillbirths and fetal malformations in naïve ruminants. The impact of the initial outbreak (2011/2012) on British sheep farms has been previously investigated, with higher farmer perceived impacts and increased lamb and ewe mortality reported on SBV-affected farms. After several years of low, or no, circulation the UK sheep flock once again became vulnerable to SBV infection. Re-emergence was confirmed in autumn 2016. This study reports the analysis of a questionnaire designed to determine the farm-level impact of SBV on the 2016/2017 UK lambing period. Higher neonatal lamb mortality, dystocia and associated ewe deaths, and higher perceived impacts on sheep welfare, flock financial performance and farmer emotional wellness were reported on SBV confirmed (n=59) and SBV suspected (n=82), than SBV not suspected (n=74) farms. Additionally, although few farmers (20.4 per cent) reported previously vaccinating against SBV, the majority (78.3 per cent) stated they would vaccinate if purchasing at less than £1 per dose. These results are largely comparable to the findings reported for the 2011/2012 outbreak, highlighting the ongoing impact of SBV on sheep farms. If SBV continues to re-emerge cyclically, the economic and animal welfare costs to the UK sheep farming industry will continue., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© British Veterinary Association 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

In 2011-2012, northern European livestock faced a threat from a newly emerged virus, Schmallenberg virus (SBV), only a few years after a major outbreak of bluetongue serotype 8 (BTV-8). Like BTV-8, SBV is transmitted by Culicoides biting midges to ruminants and spread throughout Europe. SBV, however, spread faster, reaching the UK within three months of initial discovery. Adult ruminants show only mild, if any, clinical signs; however, infection of naive ruminants by SBV during the vulnerable period of gestation leads to abortions, stillbirths and fetal malformations. Although some data exist for the prevalence of SBV on UK sheep farms early in the outbreak, we have no information on its current status. Is SBV still circulating in the UK? To answer this, the authors designed a freedom from disease study across the southernmost counties of the UK. During autumn 2015, 1444 sheep, from 131 farms, were tested for antibodies against SBV by ELISA; 5 samples from 4 farms were twice found positive by ELISA but were later confirmed negative by virus neutralisation test. As the sheep were born between October 2014 and April 2015, the authors conclude that it is unlikely that SBV is still circulating in the south of England., (British Veterinary Association.)

The flaviviruses tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and louping ill virus (LIV) are closely-related genetically and antigenically, have broadly similar host ranges that include rodents and other mammals (including sheep), and are both transmitted by the same tick species, Ixodes ricinus. Although human infection with TBEV results in a febrile illness followed in some cases by encephalitis, humans appear to be much less susceptible to infection with LIV. However, these viruses demonstrate different susceptibilities in sheep; LIV infection causes encephalitic disease, whereas TBEV infection generally does not. To investigate the role of the immune response in this mixed outcome, groups of sheep were inoculated with either virus, or with a primary inoculation with one virus and secondary inoculation with the other. Markers of both adaptive and innate immune responses were measured. In each group studied, infection resulted in seroconversion, demonstrated by the detection of virus specific neutralising antibodies. This appeared to control infection with TBEV but not LIV, which progressed to a febrile infection, with transient viraemia and elevated levels of serum interferon. This was followed by neuroinvasion, leading to up-regulation of innate immune transcripts in discrete areas of the brain, including interferon inducible genes and chemokines. Prior inoculation with TBEV did not prevent infection with LIV, but did appear to reduce disease severity and viraemia. We postulate that LIV has adapted to replicate efficiently in sheep cells, and disseminate rapidly following infection. By contrast, TBEV fails to disseminate in sheep and is controlled by the immune response., (Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations., (© 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Following its emergence in northern Europe in 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a vector-borne disease transmitted by the bites of Culicoides midges, has spread across much of the continent. Here we develop simple models to describe the spread of SBV at a continental scale and, more specifically, within and between NUTS2 regions in Europe. The model for the transmission of SBV between regions suggests that vector dispersal is the principle mechanism for transmission, even at the continental scale. The within-region model indicates that there is substantial heterogeneity amongst regions in the force of infection for cattle and sheep farms. Moreover, there is considerable under-ascertainment of SBV-affected holdings, though the level of under-ascertainment varies between regions. We contrast the relatively simple approach adopted in this study with the more complex continental-scale micro-simulation models which have been developed for pandemic influenza and discuss the strengths, weaknesses and data requirements of both approaches., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3-4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3°C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale., (Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Although no naturally infected sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has ever been discovered, it remains possible that BSE once infected the UK sheep population, has been transmitted between sheep, and is still present today. We constructed a mathematical model to assess the current maximum theoretical exposure to consumers from BSE-infected ovine material and to estimate the risk reduction that could be achieved by abattoir-based control options if BSE-infected sheep were ever found in the national flock. We predict that, if present, the exposure to consumers from a single BSE-infected sheep would be high: one sheep, close to the end of its incubation period, is likely to contribute 10-1000 times more infectious material than a fully infectious cow. Furthermore, 30% of this exposure comes from infectivity residing in lymphatic and peripheral tissue that cannot be completely removed from a carcass. We are 95% confident that throughout Great Britain, no more than four sheep flocks currently harbour an ongoing BSE epidemic. However, since the exposure from a single infected sheep is high, the annual human exposure from four 'typical' BSE-infected flocks could be considerable. Small reductions in exposure could be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues. A six-month age restriction is likely to be more effective and genotype-based strategies the most effective.

The experimental infection of sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) by the oral route and the likelihood that sheep were fed BSE-infected meat and bone meal has led to extensive speculation as to whether or not sheep are naturally infected with BSE. In response, the UK government has initiated the National Scrapie Plan (NSP), an ambitious pound 120 million per year project to create a BSE- and scrapie-resistant national sheep flock, by selectively breeding for a genotype of sheep believed to be resistant to both diseases. This genotype has recently been shown to be susceptible to BSE by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation. Should these sheep be sufficiently susceptible to BSE via natural transmission, the NSP might fail. Here we estimate the susceptibility of this genotype to horizontal (sheep-to-sheep) transmission of BSE by comparison with more extensive oral and i.c. exposure data for other sheep genotypes. We show that a previous estimate of the risk of BSE transmission to sheep via the feedborne route remains robust. However, using a mathematical model for the within-flock transmission of BSE, we show that, while the best estimate indicates that the NSP should be successful, current data cannot exclude the failure of the NSP.

The entire sheep flock in the UK has been threatened with slaughter if BSE is found in farmed sheep, largely on the grounds that an epidemic of BSE in sheep could be harder to contain than was the case for cattle, and that lamb could present a greater risk to consumers than beef. However, identifying BSE in a sheep is not straightforward, because of its similarities to the related disease, scrapie. Here, we review the likelihood that any UK sheep have BSE, how they might have got it, how a case could be identified and what the Government is doing in terms of surveillance and possible control methods.

Because there is a theoretical possibility that the British national sheep flock is infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), we examined the extent of a putative epidemic. An age cohort analysis based on numbers of infected cattle, dose responses of cattle and sheep to BSE, levels of exposure to infected feed, and number of BSE-susceptible sheep in the United Kingdom showed that at the putative epidemic peak in 1990, the number of cases of BSE-infected sheep would have ranged from fewer than 10 to about 1500. The model predicts that fewer than 20 clinical cases of BSE in sheep would be expected in 2001 if maternal transmission occurred at a rate of 10%. Although there are large uncertainties in the parameter estimates, all indications are that current prevalence is low; however, a simple model of flock-to-flock BSE transmission shows that horizontal transmission, if it has occurred, could eventually cause a large epidemic.

A female sheep with an apparent XO/XX karyotype was discovered while screening barren ewes. The animal exhibited a normal phenotype. This is the first reported case of mosaicism associated with gonadal dysgenesis in the sheep.