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One of the problems of risk analysis of complex engineering systems is the uncertainty of initial information about the time and damage associated with occurrence and development of the risk situation. The paper proposes a methodology and procedure for constructing a risk tree, loading it with initial data, calculating the corresponding characteristics: the distributions of time to reach the intermediate and main risk events and of associated with them damages, as well as their moments. Methodology involves the construction of the most dangerous path of risk situation development with respect to different criteria as well as analysis the sensitivity of risk characteristics to the initial information. The proposed approach is applied to a model of an automated system for remote monitoring of underwater gas pipeline. The proposed methodology and its implementation on a real-world example constitute the novelty of the work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

The paper investigates a model of a k-out-of-n system, the residual lifetime of which changes after failures of any of its components. The problem of a Preventive Maintenance (PM) organization as advice to the Decision Maker (DM) for such a system is considered. The purpose of this paper is to propose a mathematical model of the k-out-of-n system to support DM about PM. For most practical applications, it is usually possible to estimate the lifetime distribution parameters of the system components with limited accuracy (only one or two moments), which is why special attention is paid to the sensitivity analysis of the system reliability characteristics and decisions about PM to the shape of system components lifetime distributions. In the numerical examples, we consider the 3-out-of-6 model discussed in our previous works for two real systems. The novelty, significance, and features of this study consist of the following, after the failure of one of the system components, the load on all the others increases, which leads to a decrease in their residual lifetime. We model this situation with order statistics and study the quality of PM strategies with respect to the availability maximization criterion. At the same time, we are focusing on the study of the sensitivity of decision-making to the type of lifetime distribution of system components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

In a previous paper, the problem of how the preventive maintenance organization for the k-out-of-n: F system could be used, in order to maximize system availability, was considered. The current paper continues these investigations using a different optimization criterion. The proposed approach is based on decision making theory for regenerative processes. We propose a general procedure for comparing different preventive maintenance strategies based on the ordered statistics distributions, aiming to choose the best one with respect to cost-type criterion. The lifetime distributions of system units are usually unknown and only one or two of their moments are available. For this reason, we pay special attention to the sensitivity analysis of decision making about preventive maintenance, taking into account the shape of the system unit lifetime distributions. A numerical study of two examples based on a real-world system illustrates the results of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...