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Background: Data on migration trends are crucially lacking in developing countries. The lack of basic information on migration contrasts sharply with the increasing importance of migration in the policy agenda of both sending and receiving countries. Objective: The general objectives of this paper are: to show how trends in international migration can be reconstructed with three questions in a household survey; to evaluate the precision of the estimates; and to test how sensitive the estimates are to several methodological choices and assumptions. Methods: Migration trends are reconstructed with event history models. The reconstruction uses data collected through migration surveys conducted in cities in three countries (Senegal, Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ghana) as part of the MAFE (Migration between Africa and Europe) project. Specifically, two types of data are used: simple data on the first migration of children of household heads, collected through household surveys, and full migration histories of children collected in biographic surveys. First, we evaluate the precision of our estimates using data collected in the household questionnaire. Next, the sensitivity of our results to different methodological choices and assumptions is evaluated. Results: Migration trends measured with simple data from household surveys are broadly consistent with results obtained from full migration histories. However, increases in migration trends tend to be underestimated with household data. Migration probabilities are also affected by large confidence intervals. Conclusions: Estimates using household data may be affected by large confidence intervals, and migrations trends are influenced by the simplifying assumptions that are made when using these data. Despite these limitations, estimates based on three simple questions provide useful information on migration levels and trends.

Paradoxically, while sub-Saharan migration represents only a small fraction of total migrant flows and stocks in Europe, it has become a major topic of public debate. This is perhaps because quantitative data on African migration are quite scarce, so the phenomenon is poorly understood. In response to this knowledge gap, the MAFE project (Migration between Africa and Europe) was set up to collect original quantitative data with the aim of shedding new light on African migration. This article presents the methodology of the MAFE project, whose goal was to produce data for analysis of migration trends, their causes and consequences at micro level. The MAFE project is based on comparable, longitudinal (retrospective), multilevel and multi-topic data concerning three African migration flows (migrants from DR Congo, Ghana and Senegal). A multisite approach is adopted, based on surveys conducted in countries of both origin and destination. Beyond the MAFE project, this article highlights the classic problems encountered by surveys on international migration, and recommends a more (self-)critical approach in this field of research.

Les migrations subsahariennes sont un sujet paradoxal en Europe : alors qu'elles ne représentent qu'une petite partie de la totalité des flux et des stocks de migrants, elles sont au coeur du débat public. La raison en est peut-être que les migrations africaines sont un phénomène mal compris, pour lequel on dispose de relativement peu de données quantitatives. Dans ce contexte, le projet Migrations entre l'Afrique et l’Europe (MAFE) a été conçu pour recueillir des données quantitatives originales afin de jeter un éclairage nouveau sur les migrations africaines. Cet article présente la méthodologie du projet MAFE dont l'objectif était de produire des données permettant d'analyser les tendances de migration, leurs causes et leurs conséquences au niveau micro. Le projet MAFE s'appuie sur des données comparables, longitudinales (rétrospectives), multiniveaux et multithématiques concernant trois flux migratoires africains (migrants congolais, ghanéens et sénégalais). Les enquêtes suivent une approche multisites, reposant sur des enquêtes menées à la fois dans les pays d'origine et d'accueil. Au-delà du projet MAFE, l'article met en évidence les problèmes classiques de la méthodologie des enquêtes sur les migrations internationales, et préconise une approche plus (auto)critique dans ce domaine de recherche.

Previous research, mostly focused on Asian and Latin American contexts, found that women are increasingly present in international migration flows, especially as independent economic actors. This article examines the extent to which these two trends can be observed in the African context. It uses data collected as part of the Migration between Africa and Europe (MAFE) project in Senegal, DR Congo and several European countries. Discrete-time event-history analysis reveals only moderate increases in the likelihood of female migration over time, especially towards Western destinations, but no decline in gender gaps. The collection of rich retrospective information from both current and return migrants allows a more in-depth investigation of the nature of women’s moves. Several indicators can be used to examine the extent to which women move autonomously or in association to their partner. While some evidence of a rise in autonomous female migration was found among the Congolese, no salient change was visible in Senegal. The findings were interpreted in light of the more rigid patriarchal system and traditional gender norms that characterize Senegal in comparison to DR Congo.

Onward mobility – leaving the country of destination in order to move to a third country – is an under-researched phenomenon which challenges the idea that migration is a one-off event, leading to permanent settlement in the country of destination. Taking advantage of a recent multi-sited survey on migration between Senegal and France, Italy and Spain, this article examines the drivers of onward mobility within Europe. The biographic nature of the data enables us to adopt a life-course perspective and to analyse, in a discrete-time event history framework, the ways in which processes of economic, legal and social integration at destination shape subsequent mobility trajectories. Findings show that the low-skilled, the self-employed and the unemployed, as well as those lacking longer-term residence permits are the most likely to re-migrate. Furthermore, the presence of kin and friends in the country of settlement discourages remigration, whereas social ties in other European countries constitute one of the most important resources in triggering onward mobility within Europe.

Les enquetes Migration entre l’Afrique et l’Europe (MAFE) revelent une tendance a la baisse des migrations de retour en particulier en Republique democratique du Congo (RD Congo). Les retours sont en grande majorite spontanes plutot que forces ou encourages par les pays de destination. Seuls 16 % des migrants senegalais et 15 % des Congolais ont declare etre rentres suite a des difficultes rencontrees en Europe, y compris en raison de « problemes de papiers ». Les perspectives de reinsertion dans le pays d’origine jouent un role majeur dans les decisions de retour. Par ailleurs, les restrictions imposees a l’immigration par les pays europeens ont tendance a reduire la propension au retour des migrants.

Since the mid-1970s, sub-Saharan candidates for migration to Europe have been confronted with increasingly stiff policy measures. This chapter explores how migration between Senegal and Europe has evolved in this context. Taking advantage of the retrospective nature of the data from the MAFE project (Migration between Africa and Europe) in addition to other available sources, it offers a unique quantitative account of the history of Senegalese migration. The results show that, between 1975 and 2008, there was neither a surge in out-migration (despite the widespread belief in an African invasion in Europe) nor the decline that might have been expected if restrictions had been effective. In fact, results tend in many ways to support the hypothesis that the effectiveness of restrictive policies is hampered by a number of unintended effects due to the ability of (would-be) migrants to adapt to new rules. Among these unintended effects are: the decline in intentions to return from Europe, the increase in attempts to migrate to Europe and the growth of irregular migration.

Le secteur immobilier est considéré au Sénégal comme le principal débouché des investissements des Sénégalais de l'extérieur. Ainsi, la manne que représentent les transferts des migrants pourrait bien être un facteur d'amélioration des conditions d'habitat des ménages dakarois. C'est l'hypothèse que teste cet article à travers diverses analyses réalisées à partir des données collectées à Dakar dans le cadre de l'enquête Mafe. Sans surprise, les premiers résultats montrent qu'au moment de l'enquête, les ménages avec migrant(s) sont globalement mieux logés que les ménages sans migrant (type de logement, densité, niveau d'équipement). Mais la suite des résultats nuancent l'effet de la migration internationale sur les conditions d'habitat des ménages dakarois. D'une part, l'argent de la migration perçu par les ménages est faiblement utilisé à des fins de construction ou de transformation de l'habitat. D'autre part, l'analyse des conditions d'accès à la propriété des ménages, au moment de l'entrée dans le logement et non à celui de l'enquête, montre l'absence d'influence des migrants. Finalement, les investissements immobiliers des migrants semblent assez peu orientés vers l'amélioration des conditions d'habitat des ménages auxquels ils sont apparentés. Ceci n'empêche pas qu'ils puissent jouer un rôle dans la transformation de l'habitat à Dakar, notamment à travers des investissements locatifs.

In Senegal, the real estate sector drains the majority of investments made by Senegalese expatriates. Migrant remittances could thus play a positive role in improving the housing conditions of households in Dakar. This paper aims to test this hypothesis via a series of analyses conducted on data in Dakar for the MAFE Senegal survey. Not surprisingly, the first results show that at the time of the survey, the housing conditions of households with migrant(s) were generally better than those without (type of dwelling, persons per room, consumer durables, etc.). But subsequent findings qualify the impact of international migration on the living conditions of Dakarian households. First, the remittances sent by migrants are rarely used to build or renovate a dwelling. Second, analysis of home ownership at the time of entry into the dwelling and not at the time of the survey shows that migrants have no influence on home purchases. Last, emigrant investments in real estate rarely serve to improve the housing conditions of the households to which they belong. They can nonetheless contribute to urban renewal in Dakar, notably via investments in the rental market.

This paper provides a methodological assessment of the advantages and drawbacks of the origin-based snowballing technique as a reliable method to construct representative samples of international migrants in destination areas. Using data from the MAFE-Senegal Project, our results indicate that this is a very risky method in terms of quantitative success. Besides, it implies some clear selection biases: it overrepresents migrants more strongly connected to their home country, and it tends to overestimate both poverty in households at origin and the influence of previous migration experiences of social networks on individuals’ out-migration.