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Coastal zones are vulnerable to both erosion and flood risk, which can be assessed using coupled hydro-morphodynamic models. However, the use of such models as decision support tools suffers from a high degree of uncertainty, due to both incomplete knowledge and natural variability in the system. In this work, we show for the first time how the multilevel Monte Carlo method (MLMC) can be applied in hydro-morphodynamic coastal ocean modelling, here using the popular model XBeach, to quantify uncertainty by computing statistics of key output variables given uncertain input parameters. MLMC accelerates the Monte Carlo approach through the use of a hierarchy of models with different levels of resolution. Several theoretical and real-world coastal zone case studies are considered here, for which output variables that are key to the assessment of flood and erosion risk, such as wave run-up height and total eroded volume, are estimated. We show that MLMC can significantly reduce computational cost, resulting in speed up factors of 40 or greater compared to a standard Monte Carlo approach, whilst keeping the same level of accuracy. Furthermore, a sophisticated ensemble generating technique is used to estimate the cumulative distribution of output variables from the MLMC output. This allows for the probability of a variable exceeding a certain value to be estimated, such as the probability of a wave run-up height exceeding the height of a seawall. This is a valuable capability that can be used to inform decision-making under uncertainty. • First use of MLMC (multilevel Monte Carlo) with a coupled hydro-morphodynamic model. • Large drop in computational cost for same accuracy using MLMC instead of Monte Carlo. • Determine the distribution of variables of interest in coastal zone cases using MLMC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of reliable, sophisticated hydro-morphodynamic models is essential for protecting the coastal environment against hazards such as flooding and erosion. There exists a high degree of uncertainty associated with the application of these models, in part due to incomplete knowledge of various physical, empirical and numerical closure related parameters in both the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic solvers. This uncertainty can be addressed through the application of adjoint methods. These have the notable advantage that the number and/or dimension of the uncertain parameters has almost no effect on the computational cost associated with calculating the model sensitivities. Here, we develop the first freely available and fully flexible adjoint hydro-morphodynamic model framework. This flexibility is achieved through using the pyadjoint library, which allows us to assess the uncertainty of any parameter with respect to any model functional, without further code implementation. The model is developed within the coastal ocean model Thetis constructed using the finite element code-generation library Firedrake. We present examples of how this framework can perform sensitivity analysis, inversion and calibration for a range of uncertain parameters based on the final bedlevel. These results are verified using so-called dual-twin experiments, where the 'correct' parameter value is used in the generation of synthetic model test data, but is unknown to the model in subsequent testing. Moreover, we show that inversion and calibration with experimental data using our framework produces physically sensible optimum parameters and that these parameters always lead to more accurate results. In particular, we demonstrate how our adjoint framework can be applied to a tsunami-like event to invert for the tsunami wave from sediment deposits. • Development of first free and fully flexible adjoint hydro-morphodynamic framework. • Verification of adjoint capabilities using dual-twin experiments. • Application of adjoint methods to analyse sensitivity to spatially-varying parameters. • Use of adjoint methods to calibrate for several uncertain parameters in an experiment. • Inversion of a tsunami-like wave using final sediment deposits from experimental data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of morphodynamic models to simulate sediment transport accurately is a challenging process that is becoming ever more important because of our increasing exploitation of the coastal zone, as well as sea-level rise and the potential increase in strength and frequency of storms due to a changing climate. Morphodynamic models are highly complex given the non-linear and coupled nature of the sediment transport problem. Here we implement a new depth-averaged coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport model within the coastal ocean model Thetis , built using the code generating framework Firedrake which facilitates code flexibility and optimisation benefits. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first full morphodynamic model including both bedload and suspended sediment transport which uses a discontinuous Galerkin based finite element discretisation. We implement new functionalities within Thetis extending its existing capacity to model scalar transport to modelling suspended sediment transport, incorporating within Thetis options to model bedload transport and bedlevel changes. We apply our model to problems with non-cohesive sediment and account for effects of gravity and helical flow by adding slope gradient terms and parametrising secondary currents. For validation purposes and in demonstrating model capability, we present results from test cases of a migrating trench and a meandering channel comparing against experimental data and the widely-used model Telemac-Mascaret. • Implementation of a new morphodynamic model within a code generating framework. • Novel use of discontinuous Galerkin based finite element methods to solve this system. • Model simulates suspended and bedload transport with gravity and helical flow effects. • Successful validation evidence through standard trench migration and meander cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]