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We infer the GIA signal and its uncertainty along the central Pacific coast of North America using 680 sea-level index points and over 20,000 model runs sampling >700 (1-D) Earth viscosity models and 29 ice sheet reconstructions. Due to the large spatial extent and different tectonic settings of the study area, we divided it into three sub-regions (northern, central and southern) for which model parameters were inferred separately. Also, given that this region is tectonically active, the influence of this process (as well as sediment isostatic adjustment) was accounted for where possible by removing it from the data using published estimates. Our results indicate that it is not possible to produce an acceptable to for all of the RSL data with a single set of model parameters, suggesting significant lateral variability in viscous structure. Specifically, low viscosities (1019–1020 Pas) are inferred in the upper mantle within the northern region (southwestern British Columbia and northwest Washington) compared to those inferred (2–5 × 1020 Pas) for the central and southern regions (extending from southern Washington to southern California). High quality model fits were obtained for all data except those from the northern region where no single parameter set was able to capture both the rapid and large RSL fall during the late glacial and the monotonic rise during the mid-to-late Holocene at all localities. This suggests the need for an Earth model that incorporates departures from a linear Maxwell rheology (as applied here) and/or lateral variations in viscosity structure. Using our optimal model parameter sets, we show that GIA is a significant contributor to both contemporary vertical land motion and relative sea level change in our study region and so should be considered when interpreting observations of these signals and for making future relative sea level projections. Model output of present-day vertical land motion at 483 GPS stations and sea-level change at 56 tide gauge stations is provided (with estimated uncertainty) so that these data can be used to study non-GIA processes more accurately.

Sea level rise presents a hazard for coastal populations, and the Mississippi Delta (MD) is a region particularly at risk due to the high rates of land subsidence. We apply a gravitationally self-consistent model of glacial and sediment isostatic adjustment (SIA) along with a realistic sediment load reconstruction in this region for the first time to determine isostatic contributions to relative sea level (RSL) and land motion. We determine optimal model parameters (Earth rheology and ice history) using a new high-quality compaction-free sea level indicator database. Using the optimal model parameters, we show that SIA can lower predicted RSL in the MD area by several meters over the Holocene and so should be taken into account when modeling these data. We compare modeled contemporary rates of vertical land motion with those inferred using GPS. This comparison indicates that isostatic processes can explain the majority of the observed vertical land motion north of latitude 30.7°N, where subsidence rates average about 1 mm/yr; however, subsidence south of this latitude shows large data-model discrepancies of greater than 3 mm/yr, indicating the importance of nonisostatic processes. This discrepancy extends to contemporary RSL change, where we find that the SIA contribution in the Delta is on the order of 10−1 mm/yr. We provide estimates of the isostatic contributions to 20th and 21st century sea level rates at Gulf Coast Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level tide gauge locations as well as vertical and horizontal land motion at GPS station locations near the MD.

We determine the contribution of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) to future relative sea-level change for the North American coastline between Newfoundland and Texas. We infer GIA model parameters using recently compiled and quality-assessed databases of past sea-level changes, including new databases for the United States Gulf Coast and Atlantic Canada. At 13 cities along this coastline, we estimate the GIA contribution to range from a few centimeters (e.g., 3 [−1 to 9] cm Miami) to a few decimeters (e.g., 18 [12–22] cm, Halifax) for the period 2085–2100 relative to 2006–2015 (1−σ ranges given). We provide estimates of uncertainty in the GIA component using two different methods; the more conservative approach produces total ranges (1−σ confidence) that vary from 3 to 16 cm for the cities considered. Contributions from ocean steric and dynamic changes as well as those from changes in land ice are also estimated to provide context for the GIA projections. When summing the contributions from all three processes at the 13 cities considered along this coastline, using median or best-estimate values, the GIA signal comprises 5–38% of the total depending on the adopted climate forcing and location. The contributions from ocean dynamic/steric changes and ice mass loss are similar in amplitude but with spatial variation that approximately cancels, resulting in GIA dominating the net spatial variability north of 35°N.

Projections of sea level rise for the east coast of North America at 2100CE were generated considering contributions from: ocean warming, land ice melting and isostatic land motion. The primary contribution of this study is the development of an improved Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model that includes an assessment of model uncertainty using 36 ice loading histories, 363 Earth models and a new sea level proxy database comprising over 500 sea level index points. We find that, while there are differences between our projections and the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) projections from the recent International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report, the two sets of results agree to within uncertainty largely because some of the regional processes cancel. Our results indicate that the isostatic signal is large, contributing up to 1/4 of sea level change at 2100CE, and so must be included to generate accurate projections for this region.