Search

Sea‐ice extent is predicted to decrease in a warming climate. However, despite global warming over the past century, total Antarctic sea ice remained relatively stable from 1979 until 2015, before strongly melting. Here we explore the long‐term sea ice variability by reconstructing Antarctic sea ice since 1700 CE, based on paleoclimate records and data assimilation. Our results indicate a decline in southern hemisphere sea‐ice extent over the 20th century, driven by a reduction of 0.26 million km2 in the Weddell Sea that reached values at the end of the century lower than any other reconstructed period. The Ross Sea experienced an increasing sea‐ice cover trend due to a low‐pressure system located off the Amundsen Sea coast, offset by a decreasing trend in the Bellingshausen‐Amundsen Sea. Models failed to account for the Ross Sea increase, resulting in an overly uniform estimate of Antarctic sea ice loss over the 20th century. Plain Language Summary: Despite global warming, the Antarctic sea‐ice extent remained relatively constant over the satellite era until 2015 before a strong reduction. Numerous studies analyzed this intriguing behavior but no consensus emerged, mainly because of the shortness of observations. Here, we reconstruct the Antarctic sea‐ice over the past 300 years based on paleoclimate observations, in particular ice‐core records, combined with the physics of climate models using a so‐called data‐assimilation technique. We show that there has been a decline in the Antarctic sea‐ice extent during the 20th century. Specifically, the Atlantic sector displays a significant sea‐ice extent reduction, reaching its lowest level at the end of our reconstruction compared to the past three centuries. Our results indicate sea‐ice extent trends over the 20th century of variable signs in the Pacific sector, with a sea ice increase in western Pacific while a decrease is noticed in western Pacific. These heterogeneous spatial changes are mainly related to changes in the low‐pressure system located off the West Antarctic coasts. According to our analysis, climate models are not able to simulate the observed sea ice expansion in the eastern Pacific, leading to a too large and too homogenous Antarctic loss during the 20th century. Key Points: The Antarctic sea‐ice extent experienced a reduction over the 20th centuryThe sea‐ice extent in Weddell Sea reached its lowest level over the past 300 years at the end of the 20th centuryModels are unable to simulate the reconstructed sea ice increase in the Ross Sea, leading to an overestimation of the Antarctic sea ice loss [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean play an important role in modulating Antarctic climate. However, observations of both sea ice and wind conditions are limited in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, both temporally and spatially, prior to the satellite era (1970 onwards). Ice core chemistry data can be used to reconstruct changes over annual, decadal, and millennial timescales. To facilitate sea ice and wind reconstructions, the CLIVASH2k (CLimate Variability in Antarctica and the Southern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years) working group has compiled a database of two species, sodium [Na+] and sulfate [SO42-] , commonly measured ionic species. The database (10.5285/9E0ED16E-F2AB-4372-8DF3-FDE7E388C9A7; Thomas et al., 2022) comprises records from 105 Antarctic ice cores, containing records with a maximum age duration of 2000 years. An initial filter has been applied, based on evaluation against sea ice concentration, geopotential height (500 hPa), and surface wind fields to identify sites suitable for reconstructing past sea ice conditions, wind strength, or atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in sea ice conditions and atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean play an important role in modulating Antarctic climate. However, observations of both sea ice and wind conditions are limited in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, both temporally and spatially. Ice core chemistry data can be used to reconstruct changes over annual, decadal, and millennial timescales. To facilitate sea ice and wind reconstructions, the CLIVASH2k working group has compiled a database of two species, sodium [Na+] and sulphate [SO42-], commonly measured ionic species. The database contains records from 105 Antarctic ice cores, containing records with a maximum age duration of 2000 years. An initial filter has been applied, based on evaluation against climate observations, to identify sites suitable for reconstructing past sea ice conditions, wind strength, or atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we used the stable water isotope record (δ18O) from an ice core drilled in Palmer Land, southern Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Utilizing δ18O we identified two climate regimes during the satellite era. During the 1979–1998 positive interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) phase, a low-pressure system north of the Weddell Sea drove southeasterly winds that are associated with an increase in warm air mass intrusion onto the Larsen shelves, which melted and a decreased sea ice concentration in the Weddell Sea/increase in the Bellingshausen Sea. This climate setting is associated with anomaly low δ18O values (compared with the latter IPO period). There is significantly more melt along the northern AP ice shelf margins and on the Larsen D and southern Larsen C during the 1979–1998 IPO positive phase. The IPO positive climatic setting was coincidental with the Larsen A ice shelf collapse. In contrast, during the IPO negative phase (1999–2011), northerly winds caused a reduction in sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea/Drake Passage region. Moreover, a Southern Ocean north of the Weddell Sea high-pressure system caused low-latitude warm humid air over the tip and east of the AP, a setting that is associated with increased northern AP snowfall, a high δ18O anomaly, and less prone to Larsen ice shelf melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]