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Changes in the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) affect global sea level. Greenland stable water isotope (δ18O) records from ice cores offer information on past changes in the surface of the GIS. Here, we use the isotope-enabled Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3) climate model to simulate a set of last interglacial (LIG) idealised GIS surface elevation change scenarios focusing on GIS ice core sites. We investigate how δ18O depends on the magnitude and sign of GIS elevation change and evaluate how the response is altered by sea ice changes. We find that modifying GIS elevation induces changes in Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, sea ice and precipitation patterns. These climate feedbacks lead to ice-core-averaged isotopic lapse rates of 0.49 ‰ (100 m)−1 for the lowered GIS states and 0.29 ‰ (100 m)−1 for the enlarged GIS states. This is lower than the spatially derived Greenland lapse rates of 0.62–0.72 ‰ (100 m)−1. These results thus suggest non-linearities in the isotope–elevation relationship and have consequences for the interpretation of past elevation and climate changes across Greenland. In particular, our results suggest that winter sea ice changes may significantly influence isotope–elevation gradients: winter sea ice effect can decrease (increase) modelled core-averaged isotopic lapse rate values by about −19 % (and +28 %) for the lowered (enlarged) GIS states, respectively. The largest influence of sea ice on δ18O changes is found in coastal regions like the Camp Century site.

The Last Interglacial (LIG), a warmer period 130,000–116,000 years before present, is a potential analogue for future climate change. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures 4–5 °C higher than in the pre-industrial era. Climate model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures, possibly because they were unable to correctly capture LIG sea-ice changes. Here, we show that the latest version of the fully coupled UK Hadley Center climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a more accurate Arctic LIG climate, including elevated temperatures. Improved model physics, including a sophisticated sea-ice melt-pond scheme, result in a complete simulated loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG, which has yet to be simulated in past generations of models. This ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth and supports a fast retreat of future Arctic summer sea ice. Arctic climate in the Last Interglacial (LIG)—a warm period 130,000–116,000 years ago—is poorly simulated by modern climate models. A model with improved sea-ice melt-pond physics reproduces LIG Arctic temperatures, suggests an ice-free Arctic during this period and predicts the same by 2035.

Environmental conditions during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka) represent an important “process analogue” for understanding the climatic responses to present and future anthropogenic warming. The response of Antarctic sea ice to global warming is particularly uncertain due to the short length of the observational record. Reconstructing Antarctic winter sea-ice extent during MIS 5e therefore provides insights into the temporal and spatial patterns of sea-ice change under a warmer-than-present climate. This study presents new MIS 5e records from nine marine sediment cores located south of the Antarctic Polar Front between 55 and 70∘ S. Winter sea-ice extent and sea-surface temperatures are reconstructed using marine diatom assemblages and a modern analogue technique transfer function, and changes in these environmental variables between the three Southern Ocean sectors are investigated. The Atlantic and East Indian sector records show much more variable MIS 5e winter sea-ice extent and sea-surface temperatures than the Pacific sector records. High variability in the Atlantic sector winter sea-ice extent is attributed to high glacial meltwater flux in the Weddell Sea, indicated by increased abundances of the diatom species Eucampia antarctica and Fragilariopsis cylindrus. The high variability in the East Indian sector winter sea-ice extent is conversely believed to result from large latitudinal migrations of the flow bands of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, inferred from latitudinal shifts in the sea-surface temperature isotherms. Overall, these findings suggest that Pacific sector winter sea ice displays a low sensitivity to warmer climates. The different variability and sensitivity of Antarctic winter sea-ice extent in the three Southern Ocean sectors during MIS 5e may have significant implications for the Southern Hemisphere climatic system under future warming.

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to CMIP6 is the Tier 1 lig127k experiment, designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models and following a common experimental protocol. We present a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which (except for two) have also completed the CMIP6 DECK experiments. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 2.1 to 5.6 °C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong warming over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the piControl in June–July–August and a much-reduced minimum (August–September) summer sea ice extent in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation and areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 ka than 6 ka. New syntheses for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the specified boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6-PMIP4 lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, have potential implications for confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, Arctic sea ice, and the stability of the Greenland ice sheet.

The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59% (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78oN, in the Atlantic and Nordic seas, the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78oN there are some discrepancies between sea ice reconstructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations, and simulations with moderate CO2 increase (during the transition to high CO2 levels), may yield insight into likely 21C Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

The Last Interglacial (LIG) is a period of great importance as an analog for future climate change. Global sea level was 6-9 m higher than present. Stronger LIG summertime insolation at high northern latitudes drove Arctic land summer temperatures around 4-5 K higher than during the preindustrial era. Climate-model simulations have previously failed to capture these elevated temperatures. This may be because these models failed to correctly capture LIG sea ice changes.Here, we show that the latest version of the UK Hadley Center coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model (HadGEM3) simulates a much improved Arctic LIG climate, including the observed high temperatures. Improved model physics in HadGEM3, including a sophisticated sea ice melt-pond scheme, results in the first-ever simulation of the complete loss of Arctic sea ice in summer during the LIG.Our ice-free Arctic yields a compelling solution to the long-standing puzzle of what drove LIG Arctic warmth. The LIG simulation result is a new independent constraint on the strength of Arctic sea ice decline in climate-model projections, and provides support for a fast retreat of Arctic summer sea ice in the future.

The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Mod-elling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78° N in the Atlantic and Nordic seas the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78° N there are some discrepancies between sea-ice re-constructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations, and simulations with moderate CO2 increase (during the transition to high CO2 levels), may yield insight into likely 21C Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.

The peak of the Last Interglacial, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130–116 ka), provides a valuable ‘process analogue’ for validating the climatic feedbacks and forcings likely active under future anthropogenic warming. Reconstructing exact timings of MIS 5e peak warming and minimum winter sea-ice extent (WSIE) throughout the Southern Ocean (SO) will help to identify the interactions and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Here we present a new MIS 5e marine sediment record from the SW Atlantic sector together with 28 published core records (chronologies standardised to the LR04 δ18O benthic stack; Lisiecki and Raymo, 2005) to investigate the timing and sequence of minimum WSIE and peak warming across the SO. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) peaked earliest in the Indian (20oE–150oE) and Atlantic (70oW–20oE) sectors, at 128.7 ± 0.8 ka and 127.4 ± 1.1 ka respectively, followed by the Pacific sector (150oE–70oW) at 124.9 ± 3.6 ka. The interval of minimum WSIE for all three sectors occurred within the period from 129–125 ka, consistent with the ∼128 ka sea salt flux minimum in Antarctic ice cores. Minimum WSIE appears to have coincided with peak July insolation at 55 oS, suggesting it could be linked with the mildest winters. The reduced WSIE during MIS 5e would have likely reduced the production of deep- and bottom water masses, inhibiting storage of CO2 in the abyssal ocean and lowering nutrient availability in SO surface waters. Examining a wide spatial range of proxy records for MIS 5e is a critical step forward in understanding climatic interactions and processes that will be active under warmer global temperatures.

When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. While the role of HPC platforms in delivering better climate projections is often discussed in literature, attention is mainly focused on scalability and performance rather than on the impact of machine-dependent processes on the numerical solution. At the same time, machine dependence is an overlooked source of uncertainty when it comes to discussing the model spread observed within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP). Here we investigate the impact of machine dependence on model results and quantify, for a selected case study, the magnitude of the uncertainty. We consider the Preindustrial (PI) simulation prepared by the UK Met Office for the forthcoming CMIP6. We compare key climate variables between PI control simulations run on the UK Met Office supercomputer and the ARCHER HPC platform. Discrepancies strongly depend on the timescale. Decadal means show substantial differences of up to 0.2 °C for global mean air temperature, 1 W/m2 for TOA outgoing longwave flux and 1.2 million km2 for Southern Hemisphere sea ice area. However, on multi-centennial timescales the differences are not significant and the long-term statistics of the two runs are similar. Differences between the two simulations can be linked to variations in the strongest modes of climate variability. In the Southern Hemisphere, this results in large SST anomalies where ENSO teleconnection patterns are expected that can reach 0.6 °C (and SNR > 1) even on centennial timescales.

Significance The Dansgaard–Oeschger events contained in Greenland ice cores constitute the archetypal record of abrupt climate change. An accurate understanding of these events hinges on interpretation of Greenland records of oxygen and nitrogen isotopes. We present here the important results from a suite of modeled Dansgaard–Oeschger events. These simulations show that the change in oxygen isotope per degree of warming becomes smaller during larger events. Abrupt reductions in sea ice also emerge as a strong control on ice core oxygen isotopes because of the influence on both the moisture source and the regional temperature increase. This work confirms the significance of sea ice for past abrupt warming events., Greenland ice cores provide excellent evidence of past abrupt climate changes. However, there is no universally accepted theory of how and why these Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events occur. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain DO events, including sea ice, ice shelf buildup, ice sheets, atmospheric circulation, and meltwater changes. DO event temperature reconstructions depend on the stable water isotope (δ18O) and nitrogen isotope measurements from Greenland ice cores: interpretation of these measurements holds the key to understanding the nature of DO events. Here, we demonstrate the primary importance of sea ice as a control on Greenland ice core δ18O: 95% of the variability in δ18O in southern Greenland is explained by DO event sea ice changes. Our suite of DO events, simulated using a general circulation model, accurately captures the amplitude of δ18O enrichment during the abrupt DO event onsets. Simulated geographical variability is broadly consistent with available ice core evidence. We find an hitherto unknown sensitivity of the δ18O paleothermometer to the magnitude of DO event temperature increase: the change in δ18O per Kelvin temperature increase reduces with DO event amplitude. We show that this effect is controlled by precipitation seasonality.

Last Interglacial (LIG), stable water isotope values (δ18O) measured in Greenland deep ice cores are at least 2.5‰ higher compared to the present day. Previous isotopic climate simulations of the LIG do not capture the observed Greenland δ18O increases. Here, we use the isotope-enabled HadCM3 (UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model) to investigate whether a retreat of Northern Hemisphere sea ice was responsible for this model-data disagreement. Our results highlight the potential significance of sea ice changes on the LIG Greenland isotopic maximum. Sea ice loss in combination with increased sea surface temperatures, over the Arctic, affect δ18O: water vapour enriched in heavy isotopes and a shorter distillation path may both increase δ18O values over Greenland. We show, for the first time, that simulations of the response to Arctic sea ice reduction are capable of producing the likely magnitude of LIG δ18O increases at NEEM, NGRIP, GIPS2 and Camp Century ice core sites. However, we may underestimate δ18O changes at the Renland, DYE3 and GRIP ice core locations. Accounting for possible ice sheet changes is likely to be required to produce a better fit to the LIG ice core δ18O values.

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SHW) play an important role in regulating the capacity of the Southern Ocean carbon sink. They modulate upwelling of carbon-rich deep water and, with sea ice, determine the ocean surface area available for air–sea gas exchange. Some models indicate that the current strengthening and poleward shift of these winds will weaken the carbon sink. If correct, centennial- to millennial-scale reconstructions of the SHW intensity should be linked with past changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and sea ice. Here we present a 12,300-year reconstruction of wind strength based on three independent proxies that track inputs of sea-salt aerosols and minerogenic particles accumulating in lake sediments on sub-Antarctic Macquarie Island. Between about 12.1 thousand years ago (ka) and 11.2 ka, and since about 7 ka, the wind intensities were above their long-term mean and corresponded with increasing atmospheric CO2. Conversely, from about 11.2 to 7.2 ka, the wind intensities were below their long-term mean and corresponded with decreasing atmospheric CO2. These observations are consistent with model inferences of enhanced SHW contributing to the long-term outgassing of CO2 from the Southern Ocean. The strength of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds varied throughout the Holocene, according to a reconstruction from lake sediments, with periods of stronger winds coincident with higher atmospheric CO2 levels.

We compare multi-ice core data with δ18O model output for the early last interglacial Antarctic sea ice minimum. The spatial pattern of δ18O across Antarctica is sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea ice retreat. Local sea ice retreat increases the proportion of winter precipitation, depleting δ18O at ice core sites. However, retreat also enriches δ18O because of the reduced source-to-site distance for atmospheric vapor. The joint overall effect is for δ18O to increase as sea ice is reduced. Our data-model comparison indicates a winter sea ice retreat of 67, 59, and 43% relative to preindustrial in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean. A compilation of Southern Ocean sea ice proxy data provides weak support for this reconstruction. However, most published marine core sites are located too far north of the 128,000 years B.P. sea ice edge, preventing independent corroboration for this sea ice reconstruction. Plain Language Summary The Antarctic isotope and temperature maximum, which occurred approximately 128,000 years before present (B.P.) during the warmer than present last interglacial period, is associated with a major retreat of Antarctic sea ice. Understanding the details of this major sea ice retreat is crucial in order to understand the sensitivity of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice system and to evaluate the performance of climate model simulations in response to future warming. This work uses a multi-ice and ocean core data-model evaluation to assess the magnitude and spatial pattern of this sea ice retreat. Our results suggest that sea ice retreat was greatest in the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean and less in the Pacific sector. These results may have had serious implications for the stability of marine terminating glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet and their contribution to the last interglacial sea level rise. These results also support a hypothesized slowdown in northward ocean heat transport during the early last interglacial.

Warmer than present Antarctic and Southern Ocean temperatures during the last interglacial, approximately 128,000 years ago, have been attributed to changes in north-south ocean heat transport, causing opposing hemispheric temperature anomalies. We investigate the magnitude of Antarctic warming and Antarctic ice core isotopic enrichment in response to Northern Hemisphere meltwater input during the early last interglacial. A 1,600 year HadCM3 simulation driven by 0.25 Sv of meltwater input reproduces 50-60 % of the peak Southern Ocean summer sea surface temperature anomaly, sea ice retreat and ice core isotope enrichment. We also find a robust increase in the proportion of cold season precipitation during the last interglacial, leading to lower isotopic values at the Antarctic ice core sites. These results suggest that a HadCM3 simulation including 0.25 Sv for 3,000-4,000 years would reconcile the last interglacial observations, providing a potential solution for the last interglacial 'missing heat' problem.

Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could drive changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However, whilst CMIP5 model results feature consistent future-warming jet shifts, there is considerable disagreement in deglacial-warming jet shifts. We find here that the dependence of pre-industrial (PI) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) jet shifts on PI jet position, or state dependency, explains less of the shifts in jet simulated by the models for the LGM compared with future-warming scenarios. State dependence is also weaker for intensity changes, compared to latitudinal shifts in the jet. Winter sea ice was considerably more extensive during the LGM, along with state dependence, changes in surface heat fluxes due this sea ice change probably had a large impact on the jet. Models which both simulate realistically large expansions in sea ice and feature PI jets which are south of 50 °S, show an increase in wind speed around 55 °S, and can show a poleward shift in the jet between the PI and the LGM. However models with the PI jet positioned equatorwards of around 47 °S do not show this response: the sea ice edge is too far from the jet for it to respond. In models with accurately positioned PI jets; a +1° difference in the latitude of the sea ice edge tends to be associated with a −0.85° shift in the 850 hPa jet. However, it seems that around 5° of expansion of LGM sea ice is necessary to hold the jet in its PI position. Since observational data supports an expansion of more than 5°, this result suggests that a slight poleward shift and intensification, was the most likely jet change between the PI and the LGM. Without the effect of sea ice, models simulated polewards shifted westerlies in warming climates and equatorward shifted westerlies in colder climates. However, the feedback of sea ice counters and reverses the equatorward trend in cooler climates so that the LGM winds were more likely to have also been shifted slightly poleward.

Reconstructions of salinity are used to diagnose changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean circulation. A widely used method of determining past salinity uses oxygen isotope (δOw) residuals after the extraction of the global ice volume and temperature components. This method relies on a constant relationship between δOw and salinity throughout time. Here we use the isotope-enabled fully coupled General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 to test the application of spatially and time-independent relationships in the reconstruction of past ocean salinity. Simulations of the Late Holocene (LH), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and Last Interglacial (LIG) climates are performed and benchmarked against existing compilations of stable oxygen isotopes in carbonates (δOc), which primarily reflect δOw and temperature. We find that HadCM3 produces an accurate representation of the surface ocean δOc distribution for the LH and LGM. Our simulations show considerable variability in spatial and temporal δOw-salinity relationships. Spatial gradients are generally shallower but within ~50% of the actual simulated LH to LGM and LH to LIG temporal gradients and temporal gradients calculated from multi-decadal variability are generally shallower than both spatial and actual simulated gradients. The largest sources of uncertainty in salinity reconstructions are found to be caused by changes in regional freshwater budgets, ocean circulation, and sea ice regimes. These can cause errors in salinity estimates exceeding 4 psu. Our results suggest that paleosalinity reconstructions in the South Atlantic, Indian and Tropical Pacific Oceans should be most robust, since these regions exhibit relatively constant δOw-salinity relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Largest uncertainties will affect North Atlantic and high latitude paleosalinity reconstructions. Finally, the results show that it is difficult to generate reliable salinity estimates for regions of dynamic oceanography, such as the North Atlantic, without additional constraints.

Several studies have suggested that sea-level rise during the last interglacial implies retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The prevalent hypothesis is that the retreat coincided with the peak Antarctic temperature and stable water isotope values from 128,000 years ago (128 ka); very early in the last interglacial. Here, by analysing climate model simulations of last interglacial WAIS loss featuring water isotopes, we show instead that the isotopic response to WAIS loss is in opposition to the isotopic evidence at 128 ka. Instead, a reduction in winter sea ice area of 65±7% fully explains the 128 ka ice core evidence. Our finding of a marked retreat of the sea ice at 128 ka demonstrates the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate warming., The peak in Antarctic ice core isotope values, 128,000 years before present, was concurrent with a significantly warmer-than-present Antarctic climate. Here, the authors show that this isotope maximum was associated with a major retreat of sea ice and not a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

International audience; Measurements of Last Interglacial stable water isotopes in ice cores show that central Greenland d18O increased by at least 3‰ compared to present day. Attempting to quantify the Greenland interglacial temperature change from these ice core measurements rests on our ability to interpret the stable water isotope content of Greenland snow. Current orbitally driven interglacial simulations do not show d18O or temperature rises of the correct magnitude, leading to difficulty in using only these experiments to inform our understanding of higher interglacial d18O. Here, analysis of greenhouse gas warmed simulations from two isotope-enabled general circulation models, in conjunction with a set of Last Interglacial sea surface observations, indicates a possible explanation for the interglacial d18O rise. A reduction in the winter time sea ice concentration around the northern half of Greenland, together with an increase in sea surface temperatures over the same region, is found to be sufficient to drive a >3‰ interglacial enrichment in central Greenland snow. Warm climate d18O and dD in precipitation falling on Greenland are shown to be strongly influenced by local sea surface condition changes: local sea surface warming and a shrunken sea ice extent increase the proportion of water vapour from local (isotopically enriched) sources, compared to that from distal (isotopically depleted) sources. Precipitation intermittency changes, under warmer conditions, leads to geographical variability in the d18O against temperature gradients across Greenland. Little sea surface warming around the northern areas of Greenland leads to low d18O against temperature gradients (0.1-0.3‰ per °C), whilst large sea surface warmings in these regions leads to higher gradients (0.3-0.7‰ per °C). These gradients imply a wide possible range of present day to interglacial temperature increases (4 to >10 °C). Thus, we find that uncertainty about local interglacial sea surface conditions, rather than precipitation intermittency changes, may lead to the largest uncertainties in interpreting temperature from Greenland ice cores. We find that interglacial sea surface change observational records are currently insufficient to enable discrimination between these different d18O against temperature gradients. In conclusion, further information on interglacial sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes around northern Greenland should indicate whether +5 °C during the Last Interglacial is sufficient to drive the observed ice core d18O increase, or whether a larger temperature increases or ice sheet changes are also required to explain the ice core observations.

The sensitivity of interglacial Greenland temperature to orbital and CO2 forcing is investigated using the NorthGRIP ice core data and coupled ocean-atmosphere IPSL-CM4 model simulations. These simulations were conducted in response to different interglacial orbital configurations, and to increased CO2 concentrations. These different forcings cause very distinct simulated seasonal and latitudinal temperature and water cycle changes, limiting the analogies between the last interglacial and future climate. However, the IPSL-CM4 model shows similar magnitudes of Arctic summer warming and climate feedbacks in response to 2 × CO2 and orbital forcing of the last interglacial period (126 000 yr ago). The IPSL model produces a remarkably linear relationship between top of atmosphere incoming summer solar radiation and simulated changes in summer and annual mean central Greenland temperature. This contrasts with the stable isotope record from the Greenland ice cores, showing a multi-millennial lagged response to summer insolation. During the early part of interglacials, the observed lags may be explained by ice sheet-ocean feedbacks linked with changes in ice sheet elevation and the impact of meltwater on ocean circulation, as investigated with sensitivity studies. A quantitative comparison between ice core data and climate simulations requires to explore the stability of the stable isotope – temperature relationship. Atmospheric simulations including water stable isotopes have been conducted with the LMDZiso model under different boundary conditions. This set of simulations allows to calculate a temporal Greenland isotope-temperature slope (0.3–0.4 ‰ per °C) during warmer than present Arctic climates, in response to increased CO2, increased ocean temperature and orbital forcing. This temporal slope appears twice as small as the modern spatial gradient and is consistent with other ice core estimates. A preliminary comparison with other model results implies that other mechanisms could also play a role. This suggests that further simulations and detailed inter-model comparisons are also likely to be of benefit. Comparisons with Greenland ice core stable isotope data reveals that IPSL/LMDZiso simulations strongly underestimate the amplitude of the ice core signal during the last interglacial, which could reach +8–10 °C at fixed-elevation. While the model-data mismatch may result from missing positive feedbacks (e.g. vegetation), it could also be explained by a reduced elevation of the central Greenland ice sheet surface by 300–400 m.

We compare the present and last interglacial periods as recorded in Antarctic water stable isotope records now available at various temporal resolutions from six East Antarctic ice cores: Vostok, Taylor Dome, EPICA Dome C (EDC), EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML), Dome Fuji and the recent TALDICE ice core from Talos Dome. We first review the different modern site characteristics in terms of ice flow, meteorological conditions, precipitation intermittency and moisture origin, as depicted by meteorological data, atmospheric reanalyses and Lagrangian moisture source diagnostics. These different factors can indeed alter the relationships between temperature and water stable isotopes. Using five records with sufficient resolution on the EDC3 age scale, common features are quantified through principal component analyses. Consistent with instrumental records and atmospheric model results, the ice core data depict rather coherent and homogenous patterns in East Antarctica during the last two interglacials. Across the East Antarctic plateau, regional differences, with respect to the common East Antarctic signal, appear to have similar patterns during the current and last interglacials. We identify two abrupt shifts in isotopic records during glacial inception at TALDICE and EDML, likely caused by regional sea ice expansion. These regional differences are discussed in terms of moisture origin and in terms of past changes in local elevation histories which are compared to ice sheet model results. Our results suggest that, for coastal sites, elevation changes may contribute significantly to inter-site differences. These elevation changes may be underestimated by current ice sheet models.

About 23,000 years ago, the southern margins of the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets across Europe and North America began to melt. The melt rate accelerated ∼20,000 years ago, and global sea level eventually rose by ∼130 m as meltwater flowed into the oceans. Ice cores from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets show the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations that accompanied this shift in global ice volume and climate. However, discrepancies in the temperature reconstructions from these cores have raised questions about the long-term relationship between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Arctic temperature. On page 1177 of this issue, Buizert et al. ( 1 ) report temperature reconstructions from three locations on the Greenland ice sheet that directly address these problems.

[1] This study uses ice core methanesulphonic acid (MSA) records from the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have been warming faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere, to reconstruct the 20th century history of sea ice change in the adjacent Bellingshausen Sea. Using satellite‐derived sea ice and meteorological data, we show that ice core MSA records from this region are a reliable proxy for regional sea ice change, with years of increased winter sea ice extent recorded by increased ice core MSA concentrations. Our reconstruction suggests that the satellite‐observed sea ice decline in the Bellingshausen Sea during recent decades is part of a long‐term regional trend that has occurred throughout the 20th century. The long‐term perspective on sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea is consistent with evidence of 20th century warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and may reflect a progressive deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and, more recently, stratospheric ozone depletion. As a first‐order estimate, our MSA‐based reconstruction suggests that sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea has retreated southward by ∼0.7° during the 20th century. Comparison with other 20th century sea ice observations, reconstructions, and model simulations provides a coherent picture of Antarctic sea ice decline during the 20th century, although with regional‐scale differences evident in the timing and magnitude of this sea ice decline. This longer‐term perspective contrasts with the small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice that is observed in post‐1979 satellite data.

International audience; The EPICA ice core from Dome C extends 3259 m in depth, and encompasses 800 ka of datable and sequential ice. Numerous chemical species have been measured along the length of the cores. Here we concentrate on interpreting the main low-resolution patterns of major ions. We extend the published record for non-sea-salt calcium, sea-salt sodium and non-sea-salt sulfate flux to 800 ka. The non-sea-salt calcium record confirms that terrestrial dust originating from South America closely mirrored Antarctic climate, both at orbital and millennial timescales. A major cause of the main trends is most likely climate in southern South America, which could be sensitive to subtle changes in atmospheric circulation. Sea-salt sodium also follows temperature, but with a threshold at low temperature. We re-examine the use of sodium as a sea ice proxy, concluding that it is probably reflecting extent, with high salt concentrations reflecting larger ice extents. With this interpretation, the sodium flux record indicates low ice extent operating as an amplifier in warm interglacials. Non-sea-salt sulfate flux is almost constant along the core, confirming the lack of change in marine productivity (for sulfur-producing organisms) in the areas of the Southern Ocean contributing to the flux at Dome C. For the first time we also present long records of reversible species such as nitrate and chloride, and show that the pattern of post-depositional losses described for shallower ice is maintained in older ice. It appears possible to use these concentrations to constrain snow accumulation rates in interglacial ice at this site, and the results suggest a possible correction to accumulation rates in one early interglacial. Taken together the chemistry records offer a number of constraints on the way the Earth system combined to give the major climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary period.

Antarctic sea ice is a critical component of the climate system, affecting a range of physical and biogeochemical feedbacks, and supporting unique ecosystems. During the last glacial stage, Antarctic sea ice was more extensive than today, but uncertainties in geological (marine sediments), glaciological (ice core), and climate model reconstructions of past sea-ice extent continue to limit our understanding of its role in the Earth system. Here, we present a novel archive of past sea-ice environments from regurgitated stomach oils of snow petrels (Pagodroma nivea), preserved at nesting sites in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. We show that by combining information from fatty acid distributions and their stable carbon isotope ratios with measurements of bulk carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes and trace metal data, it is possible to reconstruct changing snow petrel diet within Marine Isotope Stage 2 (ca. 22.6–28.8 cal. kyr BP). We show that, as today, a mixed diet of krill and fish characterises much of the record. However, between 25.7–26.8 cal. kyr BP signals of krill almost disappear. By linking dietary signals in the stomach-oil deposits to modern feeding habits and foraging ranges, we infer the use by snow petrels of open water habitats (‘polynyas’) in the sea ice during our interval of study. The periods when consumption of krill was reduced are interpreted to correspond to the opening of polynyas over the continental shelf, which became the preferred foraging habitat. Our results challenge hypotheses that the development of extensive, thick, multi-year sea-ice close to the continent was a key driver of positive sea ice-climate feedbacks during glacial stages, and highlight the potential of stomach-oil deposits as a palaeo-environmental archive of Southern Ocean conditions.

The many different proxy records from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C ice core allow for the first time a comparison of nine glacial terminations in great detail. Despite the fact that all terminations cover the transition from a glacial maximum into an interglacial, there are large differences between single terminations. For some terminations, Antarctic temperature increased only moderately, while for others, the amplitude of change at the termination was much larger. For the different terminations, the rate of change in temperature is more similar than the magnitude or duration of change. These temperature changes were accompanied by vast changes in dust and sea salt deposition all over Antarctica. Here we investigate the phasing between a South American dust proxy (non-sea-salt calcium flux, nssCa2+), a sea ice proxy (sea salt sodium flux, ssNa+) and a proxy for Antarctic temperature (deuterium, δD). In particular, we look into whether a similar sequence of events applies to all terminations, despite their different characteristics. All proxies are derived from the EPICA Dome C ice core, resulting in a relative dating uncertainty between the proxies of less than 20 years. At the start of the terminations, the temperature (δD) increase and dust (nssCa2+ flux) decrease start synchronously. The sea ice proxy (ssNa+ flux), however, only changes once the temperature has reached a particular threshold, approximately 5°C below present day temperatures (corresponding to a δD value of −420‰). This reflects to a large extent the limited sensitivity of the sea ice proxy during very cold periods with large sea ice extent. At terminations where this threshold is not reached (TVI, TVIII), ssNa+ flux shows no changes. Above this threshold, the sea ice proxy is closely coupled to the Antarctic temperature, and interglacial levels are reached at the same time for both ssNa+ and δD. On the other hand, once another threshold at approximately 2°C below present day temperature is passed (corresponding to a δD value of −402‰), nssCa2+ flux has reached interglacial levels and does not change any more, despite further warming. This threshold behaviour most likely results from a combination of changes to the threshold friction velocity for dust entrainment and to the distribution of surface wind speeds in the dust source region.