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In this study Lagrangian large‐eddy simulation of cloudy mixed layers in evolving warm air masses in the Arctic is constrained by in situ observations from the recent PASCAL field campaign. A key novelty is that time dependence is maintained in the large‐scale forcings. An iterative procedure featuring large‐eddy simulation on microgrids is explored to calibrate the case setup, inspired by and making use of the typically long memory of Arctic air masses for upstream conditions. The simulated mixed‐phase clouds are part of a turbulent mixed layer that is weakly coupled to the surface and is occasionally capped by a shallow humidity layer. All eight simulated mixed layers exhibit a strong time evolution across a range of time scales, including diurnal but also synoptic fingerprints. A few cases experience rapid cloud collapse, coinciding with a rapid decrease in mixed‐layer depth. To gain insight, composite budget analyses are performed. In the mixed‐layer interior the heat and moisture budgets are dominated by turbulent transport, radiative cooling, and precipitation. However, near the thermal inversion the large‐scale vertical advection also contributes significantly, showing a distinct difference between subsidence and upsidence conditions. A bulk mass budget analysis reveals that entrainment deepening behaves almost time‐constantly, as long as clouds are present. In contrast, large‐scale subsidence fluctuates much more strongly and can both counteract and boost boundary‐layer deepening resulting from entrainment. Strong and sudden subsidence events following prolonged deepening periods are found to cause the cloud collapses, associated with a substantial reduction in the surface downward longwave radiative flux. Key Points: Lagrangian LES of Arctic cloudy mixed layers in evolving warm air masses is constrained by in situ observations from the PASCAL field campaignA novel iterative method relying on LES on microgrids is applied to optimize the case configuration and adjust biases in GCM‐derived forcingsBudget studies give insight into local and remote controls on AML evolution, suggesting large‐scale subsidence events can cause low‐level cloud collapse over the sea ice [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]