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As the imperative to address climate change intensifies, understanding the effectiveness of policy interventions becomes paramount. In the context of addressing these urgent challenges and given the inadequacy of current policies to address this issue, this study examines the extent to which Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Targets (LTTs) can contribute to achieving ambitious climate goals. Recognizing the critical need for effective climate action, we employ the advanced modelling tools PROMETHEUS and GCAM to assess the implications of different scenarios–Current Policies (CP), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), and combination of NDCs with Long-Term Targets (NDC_LTT)–on the future development of energy system and emission. This study, by employing these well-known models, seeks to provide an improved understanding of the impacts of NDCs on global emission trajectories and whether the integration of NDCs and LTTs can help close the gap towards Paris-compatible pathways. The study analyzes various sectors including buildings, transportation, electricity generation, and industry to provide insights into the limitations of existing policies and the potential of enhanced commitments to drive transformative changes in a global scale. The effectiveness of these policies varies across different sectors, highlighting the challenges that need to be addressed for achieving the required emission reduction targets in the medium- and long-term. Key findings indicate significant shifts in energy consumption, fuel mix, technology adoption, and emission trajectories, particularly under the synergistic action represented by the NDC_LTT scenario.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions-NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries' Energy-Water-Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries' strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as "Nexus Approach") in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development.