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The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), dominates winter climate variability in Europe and North America. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the winter NAO/AO has been demonstrated recently by dynamical prediction systems. However, the role of initial conditions in this predictability remains unknown. Using a latest generation seasonal forecasting system and reanalysis data, we show that the initial upper stratospheric zonal wind anomaly contributes to winter NAO/AO predictability through downward propagation of initial conditions. An initial polar westerly/easterly anomaly in the upper stratosphere propagates down to the troposphere in early winter, favoring a poleward/equatorward shift of the tropospheric mid-latitude jet. This tropospheric anomaly persists well into the late winter and induces the positive/negative phase of NAO/AO in the troposphere. Our results imply that good representation of stratospheric initial condition and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in models is important for winter climate prediction.

Abstract Narratives are paradigmatic examples of natural language, where nouns represent a proxy of information. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies revealed the recruitment of temporal cortices during noun processing and the existence of a noun-specific network at rest. Yet, it is unclear whether, in narratives, changes in noun density influence the brain functional connectivity, so that the coupling between regions correlates with information load. We acquired fMRI activity in healthy individuals listening to a narrative with noun density changing over time and measured whole-network and node-specific degree and betweenness centrality. Network measures were correlated with information magnitude with a time-varying approach. Noun density correlated positively with the across-regions average number of connections and negatively with the average betweenness centrality, suggesting the pruning of peripheral connections as information decreased. Locally, the degree of the bilateral anterior superior temporal sulcus (aSTS) was positively associated with nouns. Importantly, aSTS connectivity cannot be explained by changes in other parts of speech (e.g., verbs) or syllable density. Our results indicate that the brain recalibrates its global connectivity as a function of the information conveyed by nouns in natural language. Also, using naturalistic stimulation and network metrics, we corroborate the role of aSTS in noun processing.

Abstract Left ventricular (LV) remodeling after myocardial infarction (MI) is promoted by an intense fibrotic response, which could be targeted by the anti-fibrotic drug pirfenidone. We explored the relationship between protein modulation by pirfenidone and post-MI remodeling, based on molecular information and transcriptomic data from a swine model of MI. We identified 6 causative motives of post-MI remodeling (cardiomyocyte cell death, impaired myocyte contractility, extracellular matrix remodeling and fibrosis, hypertrophy, renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system activation, and inflammation), 4 pirfenidone targets and 21 bioflags (indirect effectors). Pirfenidone had a more widespread action than gold-standard drugs, encompassing all 6 motives, with prominent effects on p38γ-MAPK12, the TGFβ1-SMAD2/3 pathway and other effector proteins such as matrix metalloproteases 2 and 14, PDGFA/B, and IGF1. A bioinformatic approach allowed to identify several possible mechanisms of action of pirfenidone with beneficial effects in the post-MI LV remodeling, and suggests additional effects over guideline-recommended therapies.

Soil texture is key information in agriculture for improving soil knowledge and crop performance, so the accurate mapping of this crucial feature is imperative for rationally planning cultivations and for targeting interventions. We studied the relationship between radioelements and soil texture in the Mezzano Lowland (Italy), a 189 km2 agricultural plain investigated through a dedicated airborne gamma-ray spectroscopy survey. The K and Th abundances were used to retrieve the clay and sand content by means of a multi-approach method. Linear (simple and multiple) and non-linear (machine learning algorithms with deep neural networks) predictive models were trained and tested adopting a 1:50,000 scale soil texture map. The comparison of these approaches highlighted that the non-linear model introduces significant improvements in the prediction of soil texture fractions. The predicted maps of the clay and of the sand content were compared with the regional soil maps. Although the macro-structures were equally present, the airborne gamma-ray data permits us shedding light on finer features. Map areas with higher clay content were coincident with paleo-channels crossing the Mezzano Lowland in Etruscan and Roman periods, confirmed by the hydrographic setting of historical maps and by the geo-morphological features of the study area.

Extreme longevity is the paradigm of healthy aging as individuals who reached the extreme decades of human life avoided or largely postponed all major age-related diseases. In this study, we sequenced at high coverage (90X) the whole genome of 81 semi-supercentenarians and supercentenarians [105+/110+] (mean age: 106.6 ± 1.6) and of 36 healthy unrelated geographically matched controls (mean age 68.0 ± 5.9) recruited in Italy. The results showed that 105+/110+ are characterized by a peculiar genetic background associated with efficient DNA repair mechanisms, as evidenced by both germline data (common and rare variants) and somatic mutations patterns (lower mutation load if compared to younger healthy controls). Results were replicated in a second independent cohort of 333 Italian centenarians and 358 geographically matched controls. The genetics of 105+/110+ identified DNA repair and clonal haematopoiesis as crucial players for healthy aging and for the protection from cardiovascular events.

Monitoring of small ruminants for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) has recently become more relevant after two natural scrapie suspected cases of goats were found to be positive for classical BSE (C-BSE). C-BSE probably established itself in this species unrecognized, undermining disease control measures. This opens the possibility that TSEs in goats may remain an animal source for human prion diseases. Currently, there are no data regarding the natural presence of the atypical BSE in caprines. Here we report that C-BSE and L-type atypical BSE (L-BSE) isolates from bovine species are intracerebrally transmissible to goats, with a 100% attack rate and a significantly shorter incubation period and survival time after C-BSE than after L-BSE experimental infection, suggesting a lower species barrier for classical agentin goat. All animals showed nearly the same clinical features of disease characterized by skin lesions, including broken hair and alopecia, and abnormal mental status. Histology and immunohistochemistry showed several differences between C-BSE and L-BSE infection, allowing discrimination between the two different strains. The lymphoreticular involvement we observed in the C-BSE positive goats argues in favour of a peripheral distribution of PrPSc similar to classical scrapie. Western blot and other currently approved screening tests detected both strains in the goats and were able to classify negative control animals. These data demonstrate that active surveillance of small ruminants, as applied to fallen stock and/or healthy slaughter populations in European countries, is able to correctly identify and classify classical and L-BSE and ultimately protect public health.

Several polymorphic gene variants within one-carbon metabolism, an essential pathway for nucleotide synthesis and methylation reactions, are related to cancer risk. An aberrant DNA methylation is a common feature in cancer but whether the link between one-carbon metabolism variants and cancer occurs through an altered DNA methylation is yet unclear. Aims of the study were to evaluate the frequency of one-carbon metabolism gene variants in hepatocellular-carcinoma, cholangiocarcinoma and colon cancer, and their relationship to cancer risk together with global DNA methylation status. Genotyping for BHMT 716A>G, DHFR 19bp ins/del, MTHFD1 1958G>A, MTHFR 677C>T, MTR 2756A>G, MTRR 66A>G, RFC1 80G>A, SHMT1 1420C>T, TCII 776C>G and TS 2rpt-3rpt was performed in 102 cancer patients and 363 cancer-free subjects. Methylcytosine (mCyt) content was measured by LC/MS/MS in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) DNA. The MTHFD1 1958AA genotype was significantly less frequent among cancer patients as compared to controls (p = 0.007) and related to 63% reduction of overall cancer risk (p = 0.003) and 75% of colon cancer risk (p = 0.006). When considering PBMCs mCyt content, carriers of the MTHFD1 1958GG genotype showed a lower DNA methylation as compared to carriers of the A allele (p = 0.048). No differences were highlighted by evaluating a possible relationship between the other polymorphisms analyzed with cancer risk and DNA methylation. The MTHFD1 1958AA genotype is linked to a significantly reduced cancer risk. The 1958GG genotype is associated to PBMCs DNA hypomethylation as compared to the A allele carriership that may exert a protective effect for cancer risk by preserving from DNA hypomethylation.

Polymorphisms within one-carbon metabolism genes have been largely studied in relation to cancer risk for the function of this pathway in nucleotide synthesis and DNA methylation. Aims of this study were to explore the possible link among several common functional gene polymorphisms within one-carbon metabolism and survival rate in primary liver cancers, i.e., hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma, and to assess the additional effect of global DNA methylation on survival rate and mortality risk. Forty-seven primary liver cancer patients were genotyped for ten polymorphisms: DHFR 19bp ins/del, TS 2rpt-3rpt, MTHFD1 1958G>A, MTHFR 677C>T, MTR 2756A>G, MTRR 66A>G, RFC1 80G>A, SHMT1 1420C>T, BHMT 716 A>G, TC II 776C>G. Methylation was determined in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) DNA as methylcytosine (mCyt) content using LC/MS/MS. Among the polymorphisms analysed, the RFC1 80G>A (rs1051266) influenced the survival rate in primary liver cancers. The RFC1 80AA was associated to a significantly reduced survival rate (22.2%) as compared to both GG and GA genotypes (61.5% and 76% respectively, p = 0.005). When the cancer patients were stratified according to the mCyt median value as high (>5.34%) or low (≤5.34%), the concomitant presence of AA genotype and low mCyt level led to a significantly worse survival rate as compared to the G allele carriership (pA polymorphism influenced the survival rate, and the presence of RFC1 80AA genotype with low global methylation in PBMCs DNA was associated with poorer prognosis and higher mortality risk, therefore highlighting novel molecular signatures potentially helpful to define prognostic markers for primary liver cancers.

BACKGROUND:Hereditary spastic paraplegias (HSP) are a composite and genetically heterogeneous group of conditions mainly expressed by the impairment of the central motor system ("pure" forms). The involvement of other components of the central nervous system or of other systems is described in the "complicate" forms. The definition of an investigation protocol capable, by assembling clinical and paraclinical indicators to fully represent the extent of the motor system impairment, would help both the clinical handling of these conditions and contribute to our understanding of their pathogenesis. METHODS:We applied a clinical and paraclinical protocol which included tools exploring motor and non motor functioning, neurophysiology and MRI to a composite cohort of 70 molecularly defined HSP patients aged 3 to 65, to define for each indicator its significance in detailing the presence and the severity of the pathology. RESULTS:Clinically increased deep tendon reflexes and lower limb (LL) weakness are constant findings in all patients. The "complicated" forms are characterized by peripheral motor impairment, cognitive and cerebellar involvement. The Spastic Paraplegia Rating Scale efficiently reflects the severity of functional problems and correlates with disease duration. Neurophysiology consistently documents the impairment of the central motor pathway to the LLs. Nevertheless, the upper extremities and sensory system involvement is a frequent finding. MRI diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) highlighted a significant alteration of FA and MD. Combining the sampling of the various portion of the cortico-spinal tract (CST) DTI consistently discriminated patients from controls. CONCLUSION:We propose a graded clinical and paraclinical protocol for HSP phenotype definition, indicating for each tool the discriminative and descriptive capacity. Our protocol applied to 9 different forms of HSP showed that the functional impairment often extends beyond the CST. The novel DTI approach may add significant elements in disease recognition, staging and mapping.

[This corrects the article on p. e48250 in vol. 7.].

The recent discovery of hepcidin, the key iron regulatory hormone, has changed our view of iron metabolism, which in turn is long known to be linked with insulin resistant states, including type 2 diabetes mellitus and the Metabolic Syndrome (MetS). Serum ferritin levels are often elevated in MetS (Dysmetabolic hyperferritinemia--DHF), and are sometimes associated with a true mild-to-moderate hepatic iron overload (dysmetabolic iron overload syndrome--DIOS). However, the pathophysiological link between iron and MetS remains unclear. This study was aimed to investigate, for the first time, the relationship between MetS and hepcidin at population level. We measured serum hepcidin levels by Mass Spectrometry in 1,391 subjects from the Val Borbera population, and evaluated their relationship with classical MetS features. Hepcidin levels increased significantly and linearly with increasing number of MetS features, paralleling the trend of serum ferritin. In multivariate models adjusted for relevant variables including age, C-Reactive Protein, and the HFE C282Y mutation, ferritin was the only significant independent predictor of hepcidin in males, while in females MetS was also independently associated with hepcidin. Overall, these data indicate that the fundamental iron regulatory feedback is preserved in MetS, i.e. that hepcidin tends to progressively increase in response to the increase of iron stores. Due to recently discovered pleiotropic effects of hepcidin, this may worsen insulin resistance and contribute to the cardiovascular complications of MetS.

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution has been associated with cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Recent studies have proposed also a link with venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk. This study was aimed to evaluate the possible influence of air pollution-related changes on the daily flux of patients referring to the Emergency Department (ED) for VTE, dissecting the different effects of coarse and fine PM. From July 1(st), 2007, to June 30(th), 2009, data about ED accesses for VTE and about daily concentrations of PM air pollution in Verona district (Italy) were collected. Coarse PM (PM(10-2.5)) was calculated by subtracting the finest PM(2.5) from the whole PM(10). During the index period a total of 302 accesses for VTE were observed (135 males and 167 females; mean age 68.3 ± 16.7 years). In multiple regression models adjusted for other atmospheric parameters PM(10-2.5), but not PM(2.5), concentrations were positively correlated with VTE (beta-coefficient = 0.237; P = 0.020). During the days with high levels of PM(10-2.5) (≥ 75(th) percentile) there was an increased risk of ED accesses for VTE (OR 1.69 with 95%CI 1.13-2.53). By analysing days of exposure using distributed lag non-linear models, the increase of VTE risk was limited to PM(10-2.5) peaks in the short-term period. Consistently with these results, in another cohort of subjects without active thrombosis (n = 102) an inverse correlation between PM(10-2.5) and prothrombin time was found (R = -0.247; P = 0.012). Our results suggest that short-time exposure to high concentrations of PM(10-2.5) may favour an increased rate of ED accesses for VTE through the induction of a prothrombotic state.

Iron overload may represent an additional clinical problem in patients with Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS), with recent data suggesting prognostic implications. Beyond red blood cells transfusions, dysregulation of hepcidin, the key iron hormone, may play a role, but studies until now have been hampered by technical problems. Using a recently validated assay, we measured serum hepcidin in 113 patients with different MDS subtypes. Mean hepcidin levels were consistently heterogeneous across different MDS subtypes, with the lowest levels in refractory anemia with ringed sideroblasts (RARS, 1.43 nM) and the highest in refractory anemia with excess blasts (RAEB, 11.3 nM) or in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML, 10.04 nM) (P = 0.003 by ANOVA). MDS subtypes remained significant predictors of hepcidin in multivariate analyses adjusted for ferritin and transfusion history. Consistently with current knowledge on hepcidin action/regulation, RARS patients had the highest levels of toxic non-transferrin-bound-iron, while RAEB and CMML patients had substantial elevation of C-Reactive Protein as compared to other MDS subtypes, and showed lost of homeostatic regulation by iron. Growth differentiation factor 15 did not appear as a primary hepcidin regulator in this series. If confirmed, these results may help to calibrate future treatments with chelating agents and/or hepcidin modulators in MDS patients.

BACKGROUND: Relative little attention has been devoted until now to the combined effects of gene polymorphisms of the hemostatic pathway as risk factors for Myocardial Infarction (MI), the main thrombotic complication of Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the combined effect of ten common prothrombotic polymorphisms as a determinant of MI. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied a total of 804 subjects, 489 of whom with angiographically proven severe CAD, with or without MI (n = 307; n = 182; respectively). An additive model considering ten common polymorphisms [Prothrombin 20210G>A, PAI-1 4G/5G, Fibrinogen beta -455G>A, FV Leiden and "R2", FVII -402G>A and -323 del/ins, Platelet ADP Receptor P2Y12 -744T>C, Platelet Glycoproteins Ia (873G>A), and IIIa (1565T>C)] was tested. The prevalence of MI increased linearly with an increasing number of unfavorable alleles (chi(2) for trend = 10.68; P = 0.001). In a multiple logistic regression model, the number of unfavorable alleles remained significantly associated with MI after adjustment for classical risk factors. As compared to subjects with 3-7 alleles, those with few (/=8) alleles had an increased MI risk (OR 2.49, 95%CIs 1.03-6.01). The number of procoagulant alleles correlated directly (r = 0.49, P = 0.006) with endogenous thrombin potential. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of prothrombotic polymorphisms may help to predict MI in patients with advanced CAD.

BACKGROUND: The independent prognostic impact, as well as the possible causal role, of hyperhomocysteinemia (HHcy) in coronary artery disease (CAD) is controversial. No previous study specifically has addressed the relationship between HHcy and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. The aim of this study is to evaluate the prognostic impact of HHcy after CABG surgery. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We prospectively followed 350 patients who underwent elective CABG between May 1996 and May 1999. At baseline, fasting total homocysteine (tHcy) levels were measured in all participants, and a post-methionine loading (PML) test was performed in 77.7% of them (n = 272). After a median follow-up of 58 months, 33 patients (9.4%) had died, 25 because of cardiovascular events. HHcy, defined by levels higher than the 90th percentile (25.2 micromol/L) of the population's distribution, was significantly associated to total and cardiovascular mortality (P = 0.018 [log-rank test 5.57]; P = 0.002 [log-rank test 9.76], respectively). The PML test had no prognostic value. After multiple adjustment for other univariate predictors by Cox regression, including statin therapy (the most powerful predictor in uni-/multivariate analyses), high-sensitivity C Reactive Protein (hs-CRP) levels, and all known major genetic (MTHFR 677C-->T polymorphism) and non-genetic (B-group vitamin status and renal function) tHcy determinants, HHcy remained an independent prognostic factor for mortality (HRs: 5.02, 95% CIs 1.88 to 13.42, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HHcy is an important prognostic marker after CABG, independent of modern drug therapy and biomarkers.

Simulation is a key tool in population genetics for both methods development and empirical research, but producing simulations that recapitulate the main features of genomic datasets remains a major obstacle. Today, more realistic simulations are possible thanks to large increases in the quantity and quality of available genetic data, and the sophistication of inference and simulation software. However, implementing these simulations still requires substantial time and specialized knowledge. These challenges are especially pronounced for simulating genomes for species that are not well-studied, since it is not always clear what information is required to produce simulations with a level of realism sufficient to confidently answer a given question. The community-developed framework stdpopsim seeks to lower this barrier by facilitating the simulation of complex population genetic models using up-to-date information. The initial version of stdpopsim focused on establishing this framework using six well-characterized model species (Adrion et al., 2020). Here, we report on major improvements made in the new release of stdpopsim (version 0.2), which includes a significant expansion of the species catalog and substantial additions to simulation capabilities. Features added to improve the realism of the simulated genomes include non-crossover recombination and provision of species-specific genomic annotations. Through community-driven efforts, we expanded the number of species in the catalog more than threefold and broadened coverage across the tree of life. During the process of expanding the catalog, we have identified common sticking points and developed the best practices for setting up genome-scale simulations. We describe the input data required for generating a realistic simulation, suggest good practices for obtaining the relevant information from the literature, and discuss common pitfalls and major considerations. These improvements to stdpopsim aim to further promote the use of realistic whole-genome population genetic simulations, especially in non-model organisms, making them available, transparent, and accessible to everyone.