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The evolution of the Amazon forest is tightly coupled to its terrestrial water balance. Here, the authors show that forest biomass changes in the Amazon are a driver of the spatiotemporal variation of evapotranspiration, and such changes could have a larger impact on water availability in the dry regions (southern, eastern) of the Amazon.

The drivers of the increase in atmospheric methane since 2006 remain unclear. Here, the authors use satellite and in situ measurements of CO and CH4 to show that fossil fuels and biogenic sources contribute 12–19 Tg CH4per year and 12–16 Tg CH4per year respectively to the recent atmospheric methane increase.

The net climate impact of gas and coal life-cycle emissions are highly dependent on methane leakage. Every molecule of methane leaked alters the climate advantage because methane warms the planet significantly more than CO _2 over its decade-long lifetime. We find that global gas systems that leak over 4.7% of their methane (when considering a 20-year timeframe) or 7.6% (when considering a 100 year timeframe) are on par with life-cycle coal emissions from methane leaking coal mines. The net climate impact from coal is also influenced by SO _2 emissions, which react to form sulfate aerosols that mask warming. We run scenarios that combine varying methane leakage rates from coal and gas with low to high SO _2 emissions based on coal sulfur content, flue gas scrubber efficiency, and sulfate aerosol global warming potentials. The methane and SO _2 co-emitted with CO _2 alter the emissions parity between gas and coal. We estimate that a gas system leakage rate as low as 0.2% is on par with coal, assuming 1.5% sulfur coal that is scrubbed at a 90% efficiency with no coal mine methane when considering climate effects over a 20 year timeframe. Recent aerial measurement surveys of US oil and gas production basins find wide-ranging natural gas leak rates 0.65% to 66.2%, with similar leakage rates detected worldwide. These numerous super-emitting gas systems being detected globally underscore the need to accelerate methane emissions detection, accounting, and management practices to certify that gas assets are less emissions intensive than coal.

Estimating the impacts of climate change on the global carbon cycle relies on projections from Earth system models (ESMs). While ESMs currently project large warming in the high northern latitudes, the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of Arctic-Boreal ecosystems are highly uncertain. The new generation of increased complexity ESMs in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is intended to improve future climate projections. Here, we benchmark the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 (8 CMIP5 members and 12 CMIP6 members) with the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) tool over the region of NASA’s Arctic-Boreal vulnerability experiment (ABoVE) in North America. We show that the projected average net biome production (NBP) in 2100 from CMIP6 is higher than that from CMIP5 in the ABoVE domain, despite the model spread being slightly narrower. Overall, CMIP6 shows better agreement with contemporary observed carbon cycle variables (photosynthesis, respiration, biomass) than CMIP5, except for soil carbon and turnover time. Although both CMIP ensemble members project the ABoVE domain will remain a carbon sink by the end of the 21st century, the sink strength in CMIP6 increases with CO _2 emissions. CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles indicate a tipping point defined here as a negative inflection point in the NBP curve by 2050–2080 independently of the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) for CMIP6 or representative concentration pathway (RCP) for CMIP5. The model ensembles therefore suggest that, if the carbon sink strength keeps declining throughout the 21st century, the Arctic-Boreal ecosystems in North America may become a carbon source over the next century.