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3 results on '"Alizée Chemison"'

1. Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa

Author

Alizée Chemison, Gilles Ramstein, Anne Jones, Andy Morse, and Cyril Caminade

Subjects
Medicine, Science
Abstract

Abstract Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, and is considered a priority pathogen by the WHO. RVF epidemics mostly occur in Africa and can decimate livestock herds, causing significant economic losses and posing health risks for humans. RVF transmission is associated with the occurrence of El Niño events that cause floods in eastern Africa and favour the emergence of mosquitoes in wetlands. Different risk models have been developed to forecast RVF transmission risk but very few studies have validated models at pan-African scale. This study aims to validate the skill of the Liverpool Rift Valley Fever model (LRVF) in reproducing RVF epidemics over Africa and to explore the relationship between simulated climatic suitability for RVF transmission and large-scale climate modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Our results show that the LRVF model correctly simulates RVF transmission hotspots and reproduces large epidemics that affected African countries. LRVF was able to correctly reproduce major RVF epidemics in Somalia, Kenya, Zambia and to a lesser extent for Mauritania and Senegal. The positive phases of ENSO and DMI are associated with an increased risk of RVF over the Horn of Africa, with important time lags. Following research activities should focus on the development of predictive modelling systems at different time scales.

Published
2024
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2. Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Author

Alizée Chemison, Gilles Ramstein, Adrian M. Tompkins, Dimitri Defrance, Guigone Camus, Margaux Charra, and Cyril Caminade

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.

Published
2021
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3. Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Author

Guigone Camus, Gilles Ramstein, Cyril Caminade, Margaux Charra, Dimitri Defrance, Adrian M. Tompkins, Alizée Chemison, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics [Trieste] (ICTP), University of Liverpool, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Epidemiology, Rain, Science, Greenland, General Physics and Astronomy, Distribution (economics), Climate change, Mosquito Vectors, Global Warming, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 03 medical and health sciences, Malaria transmission, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, Anopheles, parasitic diseases, Prevalence, medicine, Animals, Humans, Ice Cover, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, biology, business.industry, Global warming, General Chemistry, Models, Theoretical, medicine.disease, biology.organism_classification, Malaria, 3. Good health, 030104 developmental biology, Geography, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Climatology, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, business, Risk assessment, Climate-change impacts
Abstract

Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments., Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.

Published
2021
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