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1. Randomized controlled trial of molnupiravir SARS-CoV-2 viral and antibody response in at-risk adult outpatients.

Author

Standing JF, Buggiotti L, Guerra-Assuncao JA, Woodall M, Ellis S, Agyeman AA, Miller C, Okechukwu M, Kirkpatrick E, Jacobs AI, Williams CA, Roy S, Martin-Bernal LM, Williams R, Smith CM, Sanderson T, Ashford FB, Emmanuel B, Afzal ZM, Shields A, Richter AG, Dorward J, Gbinigie O, Van Hecke O, Lown M, Francis N, Jani B, Richards DB, Rahman NM, Yu LM, Thomas NPB, Hart ND, Evans P, Andersson M, Hayward G, Hood K, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Little P, Hobbs FDR, Khoo S, Butler C, Lowe DM, and Breuer J

Subjects
Adult, Humans, Outpatients, Antibody Formation, Antibodies, Viral, Antiviral Agents therapeutic use, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, COVID-19, Cytidine analogs & derivatives, Hydroxylamines
Abstract

Viral clearance, antibody response and the mutagenic effect of molnupiravir has not been elucidated in at-risk populations. Non-hospitalised participants within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 symptoms randomised to receive molnupiravir (n = 253) or Usual Care (n = 324) were recruited to study viral and antibody dynamics and the effect of molnupiravir on viral whole genome sequence from 1437 viral genomes. Molnupiravir accelerates viral load decline, but virus is detectable by Day 5 in most cases. At Day 14 (9 days post-treatment), molnupiravir is associated with significantly higher viral persistence and significantly lower anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody titres compared to Usual Care. Serial sequencing reveals increased mutagenesis with molnupiravir treatment. Persistence of detectable viral RNA at Day 14 in the molnupiravir group is associated with higher transition mutations following treatment cessation. Viral viability at Day 14 is similar in both groups with post-molnupiravir treated samples cultured up to 9 days post cessation of treatment. The current 5-day molnupiravir course is too short. Longer courses should be tested to reduce the risk of potentially transmissible molnupiravir-mutated variants being generated. Trial registration: ISRCTN30448031., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Published
2024
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2. A molnupiravir-associated mutational signature in global SARS-CoV-2 genomes.

Author

Sanderson T, Hisner R, Donovan-Banfield I, Hartman H, Løchen A, Peacock TP, and Ruis C

Subjects
Humans, Genome, Viral drug effects, Genome, Viral genetics, Phylogeny, Viral Load, Virus Replication drug effects, Virus Replication genetics, Evolution, Molecular, COVID-19 Drug Treatment, Antiviral Agents pharmacology, Antiviral Agents therapeutic use, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 transmission, COVID-19 virology, Cytidine analogs & derivatives, Cytidine pharmacology, Cytidine therapeutic use, Hydroxylamines pharmacology, Hydroxylamines therapeutic use, Mutation drug effects, SARS-CoV-2 drug effects, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, Mutagenesis drug effects
Abstract

Molnupiravir, an antiviral medication widely used against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), acts by inducing mutations in the virus genome during replication. Most random mutations are likely to be deleterious to the virus and many will be lethal; thus, molnupiravir-induced elevated mutation rates reduce viral load 1,2 . However, if some patients treated with molnupiravir do not fully clear the SARS-CoV-2 infections, there could be the potential for onward transmission of molnupiravir-mutated viruses. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 sequencing databases contain extensive evidence of molnupiravir mutagenesis. Using a systematic approach, we find that a specific class of long phylogenetic branches, distinguished by a high proportion of G-to-A and C-to-T mutations, are found almost exclusively in sequences from 2022, after the introduction of molnupiravir treatment, and in countries and age groups with widespread use of the drug. We identify a mutational spectrum, with preferred nucleotide contexts, from viruses in patients known to have been treated with molnupiravir and show that its signature matches that seen in these long branches, in some cases with onward transmission of molnupiravir-derived lineages. Finally, we analyse treatment records to confirm a direct association between these high G-to-A branches and the use of molnupiravir., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Published
2023
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3. Independent SARS-CoV-2 staff testing protected academic and health-care institutions in northwest London.

Author

Bailey C, Sanderson T, Townsley H, Goldman J, Black JRM, Young G, Goldstone R, Fowler AS, Ward S, Jackson DJ, Cubitt L, Dearing V, O'Neil O, Crawford M, Snell D, Finadis M, Edwards A, Perez-Lloret J, Gahir J, Carr EJ, Riddell A, Aitken J, Ambrose K, Sawyer C, O'Reilly N, Caidan S, Wu MY, Walker PA, Hindmarsh S, Howell M, Jordan A, Fleming J, Houlihan C, Nastouli E, Moores R, Hsu D, Papineni P, Corrah T, Gilson R, MacRae J, Hubank M, Van As N, Turajlic S, Beale R, Levi M, Barrell S, Williams B, Gamblin S, Nicod J, Gandhi S, Bauer DLV, Wall EC, and Swanton C

Subjects
Humans, London, COVID-19 Testing, Health Facilities, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19
Abstract

Competing Interests: Sequencing data for all positive samples are publicly available through COG-UK resources. CB, TS, HT, JGo, RGi, JN, DLVB, and ECW accessed and verified the data. CB, ECW, DLVB, SGan, and CSw were responsible for the decision to submit the Correspondence for publication. CB and TS were responsible for formal analysis, investigation, methodology, visualisation, writing the original draft, and conceptualisation. HT was involved in the investigation, methodology, visualisation, manuscript review and editing, and conceptualisation. JGo was responsible for software, methodology, formal analysis, and data curation. JRMB performed formal analysis and validation. JGan was responsible for the methodology, resources, data curation, and project administration. GY performed formal analysis. RGo was responsible for software, resources, and data curation. ASF, SW, DJJ, LC, VD, OO'N, MC, DS, MF, AE, JP-L, AR, JA, NO'R, SC, MYW, PAW, and CSa were involved with the methodology, resources, data curation, and project administration. EJC was involved with software and project administration. SH, JF, and KA helped with supervision, software, and methodology. MHo performed project administration and supervision. AJ was responsible for methodology, resources, data curation, and project administration. CH, EN, MHu, RM, DH, PP, TC, RGi, JM, NVA, ST, RB, ML, and SB managed resources, data curation, and project administration. BW and SGam handled funding acquisition and project administration with SGam also providing supervision. JN was involved with project administration, supervision, and methodology. SGan performed supervision, funding acquisition, methodology, project administration, writing, review, and editing. DLVB was responsible for supervision, methodology, formal analysis, visualisation, conceptualisation, and writing the original draft. ECW performed supervision, investigation, data curation, conceptualisation, writing, review, and editing. CSw was responsible for supervision, funding acquisition, conceptualisation, project administration, writing, review, and editing. This research was funded in whole, or in part, by the Wellcome Trust (FC011104, FC011233, FC001030, FC001159, FC001827, FC001078, FC001099, and FC001169). TS is supported by a Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust grant 210918/Z/18/Z. Unrelated to this Correspondence, CSw reports grants from BMS, Ono-Pharmaceuticals, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche-Ventana, Pfizer, and Archer Dx; personal fees from Genentech, Sarah Canon Research Institute, Medicxi, Metabomed, Bicycle Therapeutics, GRAIL, Amgen, AstraZeneca, BMS, Illumina, GlaxoSmithKline, MSD, and Roche-Ventana; and stock options from Apogen Biotech, Epic Biosciences, GRAIL, Achilles Therapeutics, and Bicycle Therapeutics. We thank Sir Paul Nurse, Jules Marczack, Bobbi Clayton, Gita Mistry, and all the research staff who volunteered to work on the COVID-19 testing pipeline at the Francis Crick Institute. We also thank the staff of the National Institute for Health and Care Research Clinical Research Facility at University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust including Dr Mike Brown, Martin Bruce, Kirsty Adams, Miguel Alvarez, Marivic Ricamara, and Dr Mike Gandy at the Health Services Laboratory.

Published
2023
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4. Taxonium, a web-based tool for exploring large phylogenetic trees.

Author

Sanderson T

Subjects
Humans, Phylogeny, Pandemics, Internet, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, COVID-19 epidemiology
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a step change in the scale of sequencing data, with more genomes of SARS-CoV-2 having been sequenced than any other organism on earth. These sequences reveal key insights when represented as a phylogenetic tree, which captures the evolutionary history of the virus, and allows the identification of transmission events and the emergence of new variants. However, existing web-based tools for exploring phylogenies do not scale to the size of datasets now available for SARS-CoV-2. We have developed Taxonium, a new tool that uses WebGL to allow the exploration of trees with tens of millions of nodes in the browser for the first time. Taxonium links each node to associated metadata and supports mutation-annotated trees, which are able to capture all known genetic variation in a dataset. It can either be run entirely locally in the browser, from a server-based backend, or as a desktop application. We describe insights that analysing a tree of five million sequences can provide into SARS-CoV-2 evolution, and provide a tool at cov2tree.org for exploring a public tree of more than five million SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Taxonium can be applied to any tree, and is available at taxonium.org, with source code at github.com/theosanderson/taxonium., Competing Interests: TS No competing interests declared, (© 2022, Sanderson.)

Published
2022
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5. Determinants of Spike infectivity, processing, and neutralization in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants BA.1 and BA.2.

Author

Pastorio C, Zech F, Noettger S, Jung C, Jacob T, Sanderson T, Sparrer KMJ, and Kirchhoff F

Subjects
Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2, Antibodies, Neutralizing, Antibodies, Viral, BNT162 Vaccine, Humans, Pandemics, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus genetics, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus metabolism, Viral Envelope Proteins, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus chemistry
Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron rapidly outcompeted other variants and currently dominates the COVID-19 pandemic. Its enhanced transmission and immune evasion are thought to be driven by numerous mutations in the Omicron Spike protein. Here, we systematically introduced BA.1 and/or BA.2 Omicron Spike mutations into the ancestral Spike protein and examined the impacts on Spike function, processing, and susceptibility to neutralization. Individual mutations of S371F/L, S375F, and T376A in the ACE2-receptor-binding domain as well as Q954H and N969K in the hinge region 1 impaired infectivity, while changes to G339D, D614G, N764K, and L981F moderately enhanced it. Most mutations in the N-terminal region and receptor-binding domain reduced the sensitivity of the Spike protein to neutralization by sera from individuals vaccinated with the BNT162b2 vaccine and by therapeutic antibodies. Our results represent a systematic functional analysis of Omicron Spike adaptations that have allowed this SARS-CoV-2 variant to dominate the current pandemic., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Published
2022
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6. Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

Author

Vöhringer HS, Sanderson T, Sinnott M, De Maio N, Nguyen T, Goater R, Schwach F, Harrison I, Hellewell J, Ariani CV, Gonçalves S, Jackson DK, Johnston I, Jung AW, Saint C, Sillitoe J, Suciu M, Goldman N, Panovska-Griffiths J, Birney E, Volz E, Funk S, Kwiatkowski D, Chand M, Martincorena I, Barrett JC, and Gerstung M

Subjects
Amino Acid Substitution, COVID-19 transmission, England epidemiology, Epidemiological Monitoring, Humans, Molecular Epidemiology, Mutation, Quarantine statistics & numerical data, SARS-CoV-2 classification, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus genetics, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 virology, Genome, Viral genetics, Genomics, SARS-CoV-2 genetics
Abstract

The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Published
2021
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7. SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Author

Eales, O, Page, AJ, de Oliveira Martins, L, Wang, H, Bodinier, B, Haw, D, Jonnerby, J, Atchison, C, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Nunez, RTM, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Chapman, MHS, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O’Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, MG, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, MEng, BEWT, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, Bouzidi, KE, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O’Brien, PS, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Ashby, D, Barclay, W, Taylor, G, Cooke, G, Ward, H, Darzi, A, Riley, S, Chadeau-Hyam, M, Donnelly, CA, Elliott, P, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Department of Health, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding, Medical Research Council (MRC), Cancer Research UK, Commission of the European Communities, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust: Research Capability Funding (RCF)

Subjects
Delta variant, Science & Technology, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, 1103 Clinical Sciences, C500, Microbiology, Genetic diversity, B900, Infectious Diseases, England, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, 1108 Medical Microbiology, Mutation, Humans, Transmission advantage, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Phylogeny, 0605 Microbiology
Abstract

Background Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Genomic surveillance in regions of high immunity is crucial in detecting emerging variants that can more successfully navigate the immune landscape. Methods We present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. During round 14 (9 September–27 September 2021) and 15 (19 October–5 November 2021) lineages were determined for 1322 positive individuals, with 27.1% of those which reported their symptom status reporting no symptoms in the previous month. Results We identified 44 unique lineages, all of which were Delta or Delta sub-lineages, and found a reduction in their mutation rate over the study period. The proportion of the Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was increasing, with a reproduction number 15% (95% CI 8–23%) greater than the most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Further, AY.4.2 was less associated with the most predictive COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.029) and had a reduced mutation rate (p = 0.050). Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England. Conclusions As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals.

Published
2022

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