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The circulation of SARS-CoV-2 omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants with enhanced transmissibility and capacity for immune evasion resulted in a recent pandemic wave that began in April–May of 2022. We performed a statistical phylogeographic study that aimed to define the cross-border transmission patterns of BA.4 and BA.5 at the earliest stages of virus dispersal. Our sample included all BA.4 and BA.5 sequences that were publicly available in the GISAID database through mid-May 2022. Viral dispersal patterns were inferred using maximum likelihood phylogenetic trees with bootstrap support. We identified South Africa as the major source of both BA.4 and BA.5 that migrated to other continents. By contrast, we detected no significant export of these subvariants from Europe. Belgium was identified as a major hub for BA.4 transmission within Europe, while Portugal and Israel were identified as major sources of BA.5. Western and Northern European countries exhibited the highest rates of cross-border transmission, as did several popular tourist destinations in Southern and Central/Western Europe. Our study provides a detailed map of the early dispersal patterns of two highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 omicron subvariants at a time when there was an overall relaxation of public health measures in Europe.

Our study aims to describe the global distribution and dispersal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. Genomic surveillance data were extracted from the CoV-Spectrum platform, searching for BA.1*, BA.2*, BA.3*, BA.4*, and BA.5* variants by geographic region. BA.1* increased in November 2021 in South Africa, with a similar increase across all continents in early December 2021. BA.1* did not reach 100% dominance in all continents. The spread of BA.2*, first described in South Africa, differed greatly by geographic region, in contrast to BA.1*, which followed a similar global expansion, firstly occurring in Asia and subsequently in Africa, Europe, Oceania, and North and South America. BA.4* and BA.5* followed a different pattern, where BA.4* reached high proportions (maximum 60%) only in Africa. BA.5* is currently, by Mid-August 2022, the dominant strain, reaching almost 100% across Europe, which is the first continent aside from Africa to show increasing proportions, and Asia, the Americas, and Oceania are following. The emergence of new variants depends mostly on their selective advantage, translated as enhanced transmissibility and ability to invade people with existing immunity. Describing these patterns is useful for a better understanding of the epidemiology of the VOCs’ transmission and for generating hypotheses about the future of emerging variants.

Some emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants raise concerns due to their altered biological properties. For both B.1.1.7 and B.1351 variants, named as variants of concern (VOC), increased transmissibility was reported, whereas B.1.351 was more resistant to multiple monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), as well as convalescent and vaccination sera. To test this hypothesis, we examined the proportion of VOC over time across different geographic areas where the two VOC, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, co-circulate. Our comparative analysis was based on the number of SARS-CoV-2 sequences on GISAID database. We report that B.1.1.7 dominates over B.1.351 in geographic areas where both variants co-circulate and the B.1.1.7 was the first variant introduced in the population. The only areas where B.1.351 was detected at higher proportion were South Africa and Mayotte in Africa, where this strain was associated with increased community transmission before the detection of B.1.1.7. The dominance of B.1.1.7 over B.1.351 could be important since B.1.351 was more resistant to certain mAbs, as well as heterologous convalescent and vaccination sera, thus suggesting that it may be transmitted more effectively in people with pre-existing immunity to other VOC. This scenario would lessen the effectiveness of vaccine and urge the need to update them with new strains.