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Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (narrowing and flattening), and aggradation. Under lower storminess scenarios, more areas of the island experienced narrowing due to collision. Under higher storminess scenarios, more areas experienced flattening due to overwash and inundation. Both increased sea levels and increased storminess resulted in breaching when the majority of the island was not keeping pace and deflation was the dominant regime due to increased overtopping. Under the highest storminess scenario, the island was unable to recover elevation after storms and drowned in just 10 years. Plain Language Summary: Barrier islands protect mainland coastal communities during storms. In the future, the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) threaten barrier islands with increased inundation and loss of land. Barrier islands can keep pace with SLR by moving sand across the island during storm events to maintain height and width. However, if storms are too intense or sea levels are too high, the island may drown. This study uses computational models to assess the future response of a barrier island to higher sea levels and changes in frequency and intensity of storms (storminess). We found that the barrier island exhibits five behaviors in response to storms and SLR: keeping pace by maintaining height and width, losing width but maintaining height, losing height but maintaining width, losing height and width, and gaining height and width. These behaviors shifted based on the amount of SLR and storminess. Both increased SLR and increased storminess resulted in less of the island keeping pace and more of the island losing height and width; in some cases, this caused channels to be cut through the island. Under the most frequent and intense storm scenarios, the island lost significant amounts of land and was unable to recover. Key Points: Decadal barrier island behaviors shift in response to changes in sea level and storminessIncreased sea levels and storminess may cause island deflation and increase vulnerability to breachingBarrier island drowning may occur in a duration of only 10 years under high storminess and sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nourishment has shown to be an effective method for short-term storm protection along barrier islands and sandy beaches by reducing flooding, wave attack and erosion. However, the ability of nourishment to mitigate the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) and improve coastal resilience over decadal time scales is not well understood. This study uses integrated models of storm-driven hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and post-storm dune recovery to assess the effectiveness of beach and dune nourishment on barrier island morphological resilience over a 30-year period, accounting for storms and a moderate amount of SLR. Results show that at the end of the 30 years, nourishment contributes to maintaining island volumes by increasing barrier height and width compared with a no-action scenario (i.e., no nourishment, only natural recovery). During storms where the collision regime was dominant, higher volumes of sand were lost from the wider beach in the nourishment scenario than in the no-action scenario. During stronger storms, nourishment reduced dune overtopping compared with the no-action scenario, allowing the island to maintain height and width. Additionally, nourishment was particularly effective in reducing breaching during back-to-back storms occurring in the same year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (EDGR) was developed to predict the evolution of the primary foredune of a barrier island. Within EDGR, an island is represented as a sum of Gaussian shape functions representing dunes, berms, and the underlying island form. The model evolves the foredune based on estimated terminal dune height and location inputs. EDGR was assessed against observed dune evolution along the western end of Dauphin Island, Alabama over the 10 years following Hurricane Katrina (2005). The root mean square error with EDGR (ranging from 0.18 to 0.74 m over the model domain) was reduced compared to an alternate no-change model (0.69–0.96 m). Hindcasting with EDGR also supports the study of dune evolution processes. At Dauphin Island, results suggest that a low-lying portion of the site was dominated by overwash for ~5 years after Katrina, before approaching their terminal height and becoming growth-limited after 2010. EDGR's computational efficiency allows dune evolution to be rapidly predicted and enables ensemble predictions to constrain the uncertainty that may result if terminal dune characteristics are unknown. In addition, EDGR can be coupled with an external model for estimating dune erosion and/or the long-term evolution of other subaerial features to allow decadal-scale prediction of barrier island evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]