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Rotavirus vaccination has been shown to reduce rotavirus burden in many countries, but the long-term magnitude of vaccine impacts is unclear, particularly in low-income countries. We use a transmission model to estimate the long-term impact of rotavirus vaccination on deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2006 to 2034 for 112 low- and middle-income countries. We also explore the predicted effectiveness of a one- vs two- dose series and the relative contribution of direct vs indirect effects to overall impacts. To validate the model, we compare predicted percent reductions in severe rotavirus cases with the percent reduction in rotavirus positivity among gastroenteritis hospital admissions for 10 countries with pre- and post-vaccine introduction data. We estimate that vaccination would reduce deaths from rotavirus by 49.1 % (95 % UI: 46.6-54.3 %) by 2034 under realistic coverage scenarios, compared to a scenario without vaccination. Most of this benefit is due to direct benefit to vaccinated individuals (explaining 69-97 % of the overall impact), but indirect protection also appears to enhance impacts. We find that a one-dose schedule would only be about 57 % as effective as a two-dose schedule 12 years after vaccine introduction. Our model closely reproduced observed reductions in rotavirus positivity in the first few years after vaccine introduction in select countries. Rotavirus vaccination is likely to have a substantial impact on rotavirus gastroenteritis and its mortality burden. To sustain this benefit, the complete series of doses is needed., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: JMB reports personal fees from WHO outside the submitted work. EWH reports personal fees from Merck & Co for unrelated work. VEP is a member of the WHO Immunization and Vaccine-related Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) and has received reimbursement from Merck and Pfizer for travel expenses to Scientific Input Engagements unrelated to the topic of this manuscript., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Group A rotaviruses (RVAs) with distinct G and P genotype combinations have been reported globally. We report the genome composition and possible origin of seven G8P[4] and five G2P[4] human RVA strains based on the genetic evolution of all 11 genome segments at the nucleotide level. Twelve RVA ELISA positive stool samples collected in the representative countries of Eastern, Southern and West Africa during the 2007-2012 surveillance seasons were subjected to sequencing using the Ion Torrent PGM and Illumina MiSeq platforms. A reference-based assembly was performed using CLC Bio's clc_ref_assemble_long program, and full-genome consensus sequences were obtained. With the exception of the neutralising antigen, VP7, all study strains exhibited the DS-1-like genome constellation (P[4]-I2-R2-C2-M2-A2-N2-T2-E2-H2) and clustered phylogenetically with reference strains having a DS-1-like genetic backbone. Comparison of the nucleotide and amino acid sequences with selected global cognate genome segments revealed nucleotide and amino acid sequence identities of 81.7-100 % and 90.6-100 %, respectively, with NSP4 gene segment showing the most diversity among the strains. Bayesian analyses of all gene sequences to estimate the time of divergence of the lineage indicated that divergence times ranged from 16 to 44 years, except for the NSP4 gene where the lineage seemed to arise in the more distant past at an estimated 203 years ago. However, the long-term effects of changes found within the NSP4 genome segment should be further explored, and thus we recommend continued whole-genome analyses from larger sample sets to determine the evolutionary mechanisms of the DS-1-like strains collected in Africa.