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現在、中国社会は、世界規模のリスクのみならず、固有のリスクへの対応に迫られる複雑な時期に突入しているがゆえに、中国国内においてもリスク研究が重要視されてきた。しかし、本研究において、実証的な調査研究を支える理論研究を精査した結果、中国固有の社会・文化的コンテクストから論考する研究が少ないことが明らかとなった。一方で、圧縮された近代化や社会主義体制における市場経済化など中国独自の発展プロセスは、他国を参照しにくい特徴があるため、中国のリスク研究を整理しつつ、その固有の理論の発展を構想する必要性が浮上してきた。本稿では、多分野において展開される中国におけるリスク研究を概観した上で、とりわけ社会・文化的に構築される側面に依拠するリスクの捉え方の変容及びリスクが発生する背景の固有性を考察した。その結果、リスクの成因や特徴等を分析するといった社会の構造分析からリスクの多元的認知分析へと変化していることが明らかとなり、中でも、社会管理における政府の位置づけという中国固有の特徴との関連性が見出された。以上を踏まえ、今後の中国におけるリスク研究やガバナンス等に対する示唆を提示した。, Nowadays, it is often pointed out that Chinese society is entering a complex period of time when it is necessary to deal with not only global risks but also unique risks to China, so risk researches in China have be emphasized. However, in this research, it found when examining the theoretical studies that to support empirical research, there are few studies that are discussed from the socio-cultural context of China. Since China’s unique development process, such as compressed modernization and market economy in a socialist system, has characteristics that is difficult to refer to other countries, it has become necessary to organize its own risk researches and consider its own theoretical development. This paper gives an overview of China’s risk researches in multiple fields, and especially analyzes the transformation in the understanding of socio-culturally constructed risks and its unique backgrounds. As a result, it has become clear that the social structure analysis has be transformed into the multidimensional cognitive analysis of risk. And the relationship with the unique characteristic of China, which is the position of the government in social management, was found. Based on the above, suggestions for future risk research or risk governance could be presented.

The COVID 19 crisis and geopolitical ruptures of recent years have highlighted the importance of operations and supply chain management (OSCM) to firms and society. How do OSCM executives make decisions under uncertainty, and how do they balance the competing needs of various stakeholders? The behavioral agency model (BAM), which has been widely used in the management literature, focuses on the executive as the unit of analysis, like the behavioral science research in which it is embedded;by contrast, much of the supply chain risk management research has examined risk at the level of the firm. We review BAM literature and its core constructs, refine its original predictions, identify OSCM executive decision contexts that could take advantage of BAM, and highlight research opportunities using BAM. We aim to provide a platform for further risk research applying BAM in the domain of OSCM executive decision-making.

Over 48,000 people died by suicide in 2018 in the United States, and more than 25 times that number attempted suicide. Research on suicide has focused much more on risk factors and adverse outcomes than on protective factors and more healthy functioning. Consequently, little is known regarding relatively positive long-term psychological adaptation among people who attempt suicide and survive. We recommend inquiry into the phenomenon of long-term well-being after nonfatal suicide attempts, and we explain how this inquiry complements traditional risk research by (a) providing a more comprehensive understanding of the sequelae of suicide attempts, (b) identifying protective factors for potential use in interventions and prevention, and (c) contributing to knowledge and public education that reduce the stigma associated with suicide-related behaviors.

The knowledge base for cruise holidays is conceptually underdeveloped and narrowly focused on health and safety and environmental concerns. This critical review of risk research in relation to ocean cruising identifies knowledge gaps revealing the significance of factors such as financial, performance, time-loss, opportunity, functional, social and psychological risk. This review calls for a wider conceptualisation of risk that moves beyond an emphasis on physical risk. A deeper understanding of risk in ocean cruising contributes to cruise research and to the wider discourse in tourism and risk studies, and provides significant empirical and conceptual insights for future research.

As the vice president of Advanced Concepts & Technology for Raytheon Intelligence & Space, Bradford Tousley leads an innovative technology incubator inside Raytheon Technologies, which focusses on high-reward/high-risk disruptive technologies for the defense industry. In this interview he discusses the history of Raytheon Technologies and some of the advancements, including quantum computing, ARAKNID, DyNAMO, directed energy weapons, digital engineering, and synthetic biology, which will enable US forces and allies to maintain full-spectrum dominance in the battlespace in the near future. See video at https://youtu.be/8BGtJSISKUs.

Inter-agency collaboration is a well-established, yet very difficult process in public governance. Despite the fact that it is often unsuccessful, collaboration risk research is still undeveloped and the impact of this risk on the effectiveness of joint activities is still underestimated. This issue is of particular significance in public safety networks, where inter-agency collaboration processes are conducted under the conditions of the complexity and uncertainty. For this reason, the article is intended to: (1) identify factors of collaboration risk in public safety networks, (2) determine the impact of individual risk factors on inter-agency collaboration outcomes, (3) identify the relationship between risk factors of inter-agency collaboration in public safety networks, and (4) analyse the growth of this risk in public safety networks. These purposes were achieved using the Systematic Literature Review based on PRISMA Group methodology and Interpretive Structural Modelling together with MICMAC analysis. The applied research approach also has some limitations resulting from the number of experts. However, the results obtained allow us to better understand issues of inter-agency collaboration risk in public safety networks. They identify key collaboration risk factors, such as inappropriate collaboration rules and inadequate allocation of tasks and resources. In consequence, they indicate risk symptoms that are worth keeping track of in order to prevent collaboration ineffectiveness.

The Fukushima nuclear disaster has raised the importance on the reliability and risk research of the spent fuel pool (SFP), including the risk of internal events, fire, external hazards and so on. From a safety point of view, the low decay heat of the spent fuel assemblies and large water inventory in the SFP has made the accident progress goes very slow, but a large number of fuel assemblies are stored inside the spent fuel pool and without containment above the SFP building, it still has an unignored risk to the safety of the nuclear power plant. In this paper, a standardized approach for performing a holistic and comprehensive evaluation approach of the SFP risk based on the probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) method has been developed, including the Level 1 SFP PSA and Level 2 SFP PSA and external hazard PSA. The research scope of SFP PSA covers internal events, internal flooding, internal fires, external hazards and new risk source-fuel route risk is also included. The research will provide the risk insight of Spent Fuel Pool operation, and can help to make recommendation for the prevention and mitigation of SFP accidents which will be applicable for the SFP configuration risk management.

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has improved its elemental technologies used for assessing external events since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Accident in 2011. HRA needs to be improved for analyzing tasks performed under extreme conditions (e.g., different actors responding to external events or performing operations using portable mitigation equipment). To make these improvements, it is essential to understand plant-specific and scenario-specific conditions that affect human performance. The Nuclear Risk Research Center (NRRC) of the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) has developed an HRA guide that compiles qualitative analysis methods for collecting plant-specific and scenario-specific conditions that affect human performance into “narratives,” reflecting the latest research trends, and models for analysis of tasks under extreme conditions.

On a global scale, from 2005 to 2019, there were 275 high-magnitude, low-frequency disasters that involved 14,172 fatalities and four million affected people. Similar patterns have taken place during longer periods of time in recent decades. This paper aims to analyse the contribution of the international landslide research community to disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management in reference to the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in a literature review. The first section notes the relevance of disaster risk research contributions for the implementation of initiatives and strategies concerning disaster risk management. The second section highlights background information and current applications of drones in the field of hazards and risk. The methodology, which included a systematic peer review of journals in the ISI Web of Science and SCOPUS, was presented in the third section, where the results include analyses of the considered data. This study concludes that most current scholarly efforts remain rooted in hazards and post-disaster evaluation and response. Future landslide disaster risk research should be transdisciplinary in order to strengthen participation of the various relevant stakeholders in contributing to integrated disaster risk management at local, subnational, national, regional and global levels.

Competitiveness has always been the basis for building a market economy. In modern conditions, this quality should also be enjoyed by public sector institutions. Pre-education that takes place in the public sector of the economy, which mainly includes educational institutions, is aimed at creating a competitive environment among educational institutions, in which they must fight for victory in the competition to complete a state task, for applicants, for reputation, and, ultimately, for budget funding. And in this situation, various management systems, often borrowed from the commercial sphere of activity, come to the fore. One of these systems is the risk management system, which includes both the positive and negative nature of risk and its hybrid component in the modern interpretation. Existing risk management standards consider risk from these positions. Purpose of work it is a study of budget risks from the point of view of the process approach, assessment and relationship of the stages of the budget process and risks. The novelty of this work is the use of risk-based thinking to achieve the effectiveness of the quality management system of budget processes. Methods. The methodological apparatus of research on the stated problem is based on the methods of economic and comparative analysis, expert assessments. Results. The results of the study revealed a clear relationship and reflection of the main principles of the process approach in the budget process. In addition, it was determined that the budget process also has the characteristic key elements of the process approach. measures to prevent budget risks are taken jointly by the owner and participants in the budget process, using the necessary resources and following the relevant principles, while the coordinator, who is responsible for the coordinated work of participants in the process and ensures the safety and timely presentation of all potentially useful information, plays a key role in preventing and minimizing budget process risks.

The article considers the main approaches to risk research, which is a constant companion of human activity. It is shown that the process of forming the theoretical bases of risk occurred over a long period of time in all areas of social, humanitarian and natural knowledge, which led to the emergence of various risk-based concepts. The dynamics of the attitude to risk in different periods of human history is presented, which resulted in the emergence of a modern «risk society», in which risk is perceived as the reverse side of progress.

The affordability of property-level adaptation measures against flooding is crucial due to the movement toward integrated flood risk management, which requires the individuals threatened by flooding to actively manage flooding. It is surprising to find that affordability is not often discussed, given the important roles that affordability and social justice play regarding flood risk management. This article provides a starting point for investigating the potential rate of unaffordability of flood risk property-level adaptation measures across Europe using two definitions of affordability, which are combined with two different affordability thresholds from within flood risk research. It uses concepts of investment and payment affordability, with affordability thresholds based on residual income and expenditure definitions of unaffordability. These concepts, in turn, are linked with social justice through fairness concerns, in that, all should have equal capability to act, of which affordability is one avenue. In doing so, it was found that, for a large proportion of Europe, property owners generally cannot afford to make one-time payment of the cost of protective measures. These can be made affordable with installment payment mechanisms or similar mechanisms that spread costs over time. Therefore, the movement toward greater obligations for flood-prone residents to actively adapt to flooding should be accompanied by socially accessible financing mechanisms.

A growing awareness of potential global catastrophes has recently given increased attention to the topic of existential risks. To date, there is still very limited consensus on the definition of existential risk, the likelihood of those risks, and their ethical implications. To achieve more clarity, it is proposed here that extinction risks should be discerned more clearly from other aspects of existential risks. Nuclear war is taken as a prime example to illustrate an extinction risk and to discuss humanity’s resilience to such threats. It is concluded that it is unlikely that a nuclear war would lead to the end of the human species, despite the unprecedented damage it might cause. Further, some of the ethical aspects of longtermism and the communication of existential risks are discussed., Intergenerational Justice Review, Vol. 8 No. 1 (2022): Existential and unknown risks for future generations (I)

One of the goals of any oil terminal is to make a business while avoiding hazardous events and harmful effects for both humans and the environment. This can be achieved by creating a safe working place as well as by performing safe and acceptable activities regarding the impact on surrounding objects, including residential and industrial areas. The aim of the hazard analysis of the oil terminal is to assess the risks related to hazardous events or phenomena and to evaluate whether the assessed risks are acceptable. The hazard analysis and assessment of risk are also used for risk reduction while examining and limiting hazardous scenarios that, for instance, involve the loss-of-containment of flammable or combustible material. In this paper, the authors aim to contribute to risk research by providing a comprehensive methodology of risk assessment for oil terminals with case study results and discussion on features of the methodology, risk aggregation, its applicability for risk reduction, and industrial interests. The performed study considered the “Klaipedos Nafta AB” (an operator of the Klaipeda Oil Terminal, Lithuania) case study regarding hazardous materials that might be released from various tanks, devices, and associated pipelines. The performed quantitative risk assessment has enabled the determination of the probability regarding whether releases would ignite and, for instance, cause explosion. In the case study, the estimate of probability, i.e., the frequency, and the possible consequences of the hazardous events were evaluated, and both mitigation and risk reduction measures were also considered.

Commercial banks are facing increasingly complex enterprise loan customers and businesses. It is important for banks' enterprise loan business to efficiently assess credit risks. Our study builds an enterprise credit risk assessment model based on the state and constraint of bank and customer, and get empirical researches with RF, SVM and DT algorithms. The results show that our model has excellent performance with accuracy 99 % and great characteristic importance in the evaluation of enterprise credit risk. The study can provide important decision-making reference for bank loan business and enrich the theoretical system of bank credit risk research.

The need to prevent possible adverse environmental health impacts resulting from synthetic biology (SynBio) products is widely acknowledged in both the SynBio risk literature and the global regulatory community. To-date, however, discussions of potential risks of SynBio products have been largely speculative, and the limited attempts to characterize the risks of SynBio products have been non-uniform and entirely qualitative. As the SynBio discipline continues to accelerate and bring forth novel, highly-engineered life forms, a standardized risk assessment framework will become critical for ensuring that the environmental risks of these products are characterized in a consistent, reliable, and objective manner that incorporates all SynBio-unique risk factors. In their current forms, established risk assessment frameworks – including those that address traditional genetically modified organisms – fall short of the features required of this standard framework. To address this gap, we propose the Quantitative Risk Assessment Method for Synthetic Biology Products (QRA-SynBio) – an incremental build on established risk assessment methodologies that supplements traditional paradigms with the SynBio risk factors that are currently absent, and necessitates quantitative analysis for more transparent and objective risk characterizations. We demonstrate through a hypothetical case study that the proposed framework facilitates defensible quantification of the environmental risks of SynBio products in both foreseeable and hypothetical use scenarios. Additionally, we show how the quantitative nature of the proposed method can promote increased experimental investigation into the true likelihood of hazard and exposure parameters and highlight the most sensitive parameters where uncertainty should be reduced, ultimately leading to more targeted SynBio risk research and yielding more precise characterizations of risk.

Studies are skewed towards resilient places and people: improve data, metrics, inclusion and more. Studies are skewed towards resilient places and people: improve data, metrics, inclusion and more.

Social science risk studies often begin with one of two starting points: a particular risk, such as that of natural or technical disasters, or, alternately, with the individual experiencing risk. But risk may not be the guiding concept for how people act in the social world. This article explores how social practice theory broadens the possible starting points for social science risk research and in turn improve our understanding of risk. It does so by drawing on existing empirical studies within risk research that make use of practice-oriented theories and outline three essential arguments for practice-based risk research. First, that risk is understood as embedded in socially shared practices, second, that risk is routinised, and third, that risk is present in both social and material relations. Together, these arguments make out an analytical starting point of ‘practices of interest and intersecting practices’, representing a methodological situationalism, where actions rather than actors are at the core of research. In conclusion, a sensibility for practice in risk research is suggested.

Despite rapidly growing knowledge of the clinical high-risk (CHR) state for psychosis, the vast majority of case-control studies have relied on healthy volunteers as a reference point for drawing inferences about the CHR construct. Researchers have long recognized that results generated from this design are limited by significant interpretive concerns, yet little attention has been given to how these concerns affect the growing field of CHR research. We argue that overreliance on healthy control participants in CHR research threatens the validity of inferences concerning group differences, hinders advances in understanding the development of psychosis, and limits clinical progress. We suggest that the combined use of healthy and help-seeking (i.e., psychiatric) controls is a necessary step for the next generation of CHR research. We then evaluate methods for help-seeking control studies, identify the available CHR studies that have used such designs, discuss select findings in this literature, and offer recommendations for research.

The 2018 Sulawesi earthquake (Mw 7.5) and tsunami destroyed many buildings and caused more than 3300 fatalities in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Damage reports and satellite images from Palu City indicated severe tsunami impacts to buildings and lifelines infrastructure within 300 m from the coastline. Seven-weeks after the earthquake a field survey was carried out in Palu City to measure tsunami flow depths and record damage levels for buildings, roads and electricity infrastructure. Above ground level tsunami flow depths measured at 371 building sites ranged from 0.1 to 3.65 m, with a 1.05 m mean and 0.55 m standard deviation. The survey team also recorded attributes and damage levels for 463 buildings, 7.9 km of road and 455 utility poles. We observed that non-engineered ‘light timber’ and ‘lightly reinforced concrete’ construction frame buildings were highly susceptible to ‘non-structural’ component damage when tsunami flow depths respectively exceed 0.4 m and 1 m above the first finished floor level, while unrepairable or complete building damage was regularly observed when flow depths exceeded 1.2 m. Only non-structural component damage was observed for engineered ‘reinforced concrete’ buildings. While tsunami flow depth traces could not be measured for affected road and utility pole components, hazard intensity parameters can be obtained from tsunami inundation maps to estimate the conditions contributing to observed damage levels. The information presented herein forms an important evidence base to support future tsunami hazard and risk research in Indonesia.

This special issue of the Journal of Risk Research presents papers developed by some of the scholars who participated in an AHRC-funded network, ‘Fate, Luck, and Fortune: Narratives of Envi...

The agricultural situation in India has gone through several distresses occurring from both natural and socio-politico-economic stressors. Though an emphasis has been given in the country to develop and promote adaptation strategies, it requires precise, comprehensive, and generalized knowledge regarding agricultural risks and vulnerabilities. With this motive, the present study systematically reviews the current state of research on India’s agricultural risk and vulnerabilities (n = 97), its progress, and prospects over the past two decades. The review explicitly focuses on the trends, characteristics, practices, outcomes, and policy significance to broaden the potential course. Results suggest that there are significant spatial, temporal, and thematic differences in agricultural vulnerability and risk researches. Considering the exposures, most of the studies prioritize climate-induced external stressors over the internal ones. Studies are still being practiced traditionally by neglecting the nexus of various physical and socio-politico-economic attributes of agriculture. Consequently, the inherent structural drivers, such as class, caste, gender, and economic disparity, still stimulate agricultural risks and vulnerabilities. Considering the future adversities and the heterogeneity of India’s biophysical and environmental conditions along with diversified socio-politico-economic aspects, we emphasize the process-based systemic, multi-scalar, and multi-stressor agricultural vulnerability and risk research through cohesive theoretical, conceptual, and analytical approaches. Additionally, we developed a combined vulnerability and risk assessment framework, which can generally be applied to any system, including agriculture.

Based on the literature review, this paper synthesizes recent state of knowledge on flood risk perception and related human behaviors. The main attention is paid to private precautionary and mitigation measures, and the reasons why these are (not) adopted by agents such as individual households. Results of a wide range of relevant studies are presented and critically examined. The findings are presented within an interpretive framework established during the review process; six key themes (responsibility, risk perception, people and social environment, geography of risk, emotions, theories and conceptual models) and several sub-themes closely related to them were identified by the content/thematic analysis. These were then utilized to overview and discuss particular factors and issues involved, as well as various relevant theoretical underpinnings and conceptual models. The review identifies, illustrates, and addresses not only the consensual views and contradictory findings of flood risk research, but also several related and essential ambiguities, uncertainties, and knowledge gaps. Based on these findings, suggestions for future research are discussed, including the terminological, semantic, methodological, theoretical, and ethical aspects. The paper thus serves two main tasks: (a) It is a useful reference/departure point for those with research interests in topics and issues such as flood risk perception, flood risk protective and mitigation behaviors and measures, or flood risk management in general; and (b) it provides suggestions and incentives for future flood risk research agenda.

Research of non-contact anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) inj1ury risk aims to identify modifiable risk factors that are linked to the mechanisms of injury. Information from these studies is then used in the development of injury prevention programmes. However, ACL injury risk research often leans towards methods with three limitations: 1) a poor preservation of the athlete-environment rela- tionship that limits the generalisability of results, 2) the use of a strictly biomechanical approach to injury causation that is incom- plete for the description of injury mechanisms, 3) and a reductionist analysis that neglects profound information regarding human movement. This current opinion proposes three principles from an ecological dynamics perspective that address these limitations. First, it is argued that, to improve the generalisability of findings, research requires a well-preserved athlete-environment relation- ship. Second, the merit of including behaviour and the playing situation in the model of injury causation is presented. Third, this paper advocates that research benefits from conducting non- reductionist analysis (i.e., more holistic) that provides profound information regarding human movement. Together, these princi- ples facilitate an ecological dynamics approach to injury risk research that helps to expand our understanding of injury mechan- isms and thus contributes to the development of preventative measures.

The EUropean FOod Risk Assessment (EU‐FORA) Fellowship work programme ‘Livestock Health and Food Chain Risk Assessment’, funded by EFSA was proposed by the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), UK. A scientist with a PhD in Food Science was selected to work within the Biomathematics and Risk Research group, under the guidance of a senior risk assessor. The programme consisted of four different modules that covered a wide range of aspects related to risk assessment (RA). The aims, activities and conclusions obtained during the year are described in this article. The learning‐by‐doing approach in RA allowed the fellow to discover a broad pool of methodologies, tools and applications while developing his own knowledge in RA, as well as gaining scientific network for future collaborations in the field.

The literature on maritime risk management is rich and the findings are pertinent to maritime authorities in the Baltic Sea region, however, little is known regarding how much of the available research is actually utilized. This paper aims to evaluate the uptake of maritime risk research by maritime authorities in the Baltic Sea region and to propose recommendations for its improvement. An existing model to evaluate research uptake was adopted. The factors that could improve research uptake were identified and built into a framework of research institutions&rsquo, push of research and its pull by the maritime authorities and industry. The level of research uptake and the utilization of push and pull factors were examined using an online survey questionnaire and in addition, policymakers and researchers were engaged in a workshop to identify the best practices and opportunities for research uptake in the Baltic Sea region. The results show that the overall research uptake level is reasonably good, although factors that increase research utilization are not wholly taken up. Policy recommendations are provided to improve research uptake and science communication. The emergent framework of improvement factors and best practices should serve as a guide to policymakers and researchers to optimize the uptake of research, regardless of discipline.

Nanjing city is taken as a case in this urban rainstorm disaster risk research. Using the data of meteorology and social-economy statistics of Nanjing area, the paper selected ten indicators to establish the risk assessment system of urban rainstorm disaster from the aspects of the vulnerability of hazard-affected body, the fragility of disaster-pregnant environment, and the danger of hazard factors. Multi-layer weighted principal component analysis (MLWPCA) is an extension of the principal component analysis (PCA). The MLWPCA is based on factor analysis for the division subsystem. Then the PCA is used to analyze the indicators in each subsystem and weighted to synthesize. ArcGIS is used to describe regional differences in the urban rainstorm disaster risk. Results show that the MLWPCA is more targeted and discriminatory than principal component analysis in the risk assessment of urban rainstorm disaster. Hazard-affected body and disaster-pregnant environment have greater impacts on the risk assessment of rainstorm disaster in Nanjing, but the influence of hazard factors is few. Spatially, there is a large gap in the rainstorm disaster risk in Nanjing. The areas with high-risk rainstorm disaster are mainly concentrated in the central part of Nanjing, and the areas with low-risk rainstorm disaster are in the south and north of the city.