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The multitude of uncertainties of both natural and man-made disasters have prompted an increased attention in resilience engineering and disaster management. To overcome the effects of disastrous events, such as economic and social effects, modern communities need to be resilient. Natural disasters are unpredictable and unavoidable. While it is not possible to prevent them and protect individuals and societies against such disasters, modern communities should be prepared by incorporating both pre-event (preparedness and mitigation) and post-event (response and recovery) resilience activities to minimize the negative effects after a severe event. Resilience indicators may be fundamental to help the planners and decision-makers to develop strategies and action plans for making communities more resilient. This chapter presents a quantitative approach to estimate the resilience and resilience-based risk at the state level. In the proposed method, the resilience-based risk is a function of resilience, hazard, and exposure. To evaluate the resilience parameter, data provided by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) are used. The framework is developed using resilience indicators with the primary goal of achieving disaster risk reduction. To use those indicators in the resilience assessment, it is necessary to define the impact and the contribution of each indicator towards resilience. To do that, two possible methods to combine and weight the different SFDRR indicators are presented: Dependence Tree Analysis (DTA) and Spider Plot Weighted Area Analysis (SPA). The proposed approach allows the decision-makers and governments to evaluate the resilience and the related resilience-based risk (RBR) of their countries using available information.

Resumen En el campo de la Gestión del Riesgo ante Desastres (GRD) la noción de resiliencia comunitaria ha motivado una serie de estudios enfocados en conceptualizar, dimensionar y definir los pilares de este constructo. El presente estudio busca describir las dimensiones de la resiliencia comunitaria frente a la amenaza de una falla geológica activa del sector precordillerano de la Región Metropolitana de Chile. Se aplicó un cuestionario a 43 dirigentes sociales de Peñalolén; posteriormente, se realizó un análisis estadístico de los 27 ítems cerrados y un análisis temático cuantitativo de los tres ítems abiertos. Los resultados indican cinco dimensiones claves de la resiliencia comunitaria: gobernabilidad, evaluación del riesgo, conocimientos culturales y educación, gestión de riesgos y reducción de vulnerabilidad, y estrategias organizativas para la preparación y respuesta ante desastres. Se discute la importancia de estas dimensiones de la resiliencia comunitaria en contextos de vulnerabilidades crónicas y superpuestas, a la vez que se resalta la necesidad de desarrollar mejores medidas institucionales de prevención, preparación y respuesta ante desastres. Abstract In the field of Disaster Risk Management (DRM), the notion of community resilience has motivated a series of studies focused on conceptualizing, dimensioning and defining the pillars of this construct. This study seeks to describe the dimensions of community resilience in the face of the threat of an active geological fault in the foothills of the Metropolitan Region of Chile. A questionnaire was applied to 43 social leaders of Peñalolen, subsequently, a statistical analysis of the 27 closed items was held and a quantitative thematic analysis of the three opened items. The results indicate five key dimensions of community resilience: governance; risk assessment; cultural knowledge and education; risk management and vulnerability reduction and organizational strategies for disaster preparedness and response. Finally, the importance of these dimensions of community resilience in contexts of chronic and overlapping vulnerabilities is discussed, while highlighting the need to develop better institutional measures for prevention, preparedness and response to disasters. Resumo No campo da Gestão de Risco de Desastres (GRD), a noção de resiliência comunitária tem motivado uma série de estudos com foco em conceituar, dimensionar e definir os pilares desse construto. Este estudo busca descrever as dimensões da resiliência da comunidade diante da ameaça de uma falha geológica ativa localizada no setor da pré-cordilheira na Região Metropolitana do Chile. Um questionário foi aplicado a 43 líderes sociais de Peñalolén; posteriormente, foi realizada uma análise estatística dos 27 itens fechados e uma análise temática quantitativa dos três itens abertos. Os resultados indicam cinco dimensões-chave da resiliência da comunidade: governança; avaliação de risco; conhecimento cultural e educação; gestão de risco e redução da vulnerabilidade e estratégias organizacionais para preparação e resposta a desastres. Se discute a importância de istas dimenções na resiliência comunitaria em contextos de vulnerabilidades crônicas e sobrepostas, se destacam as necessidades de desenvolver melhores medidas institucionais para a prevenção, preparação e resposta aos desastres. Résumé Dans le domaine de la Gestion des Risques de Catastrophe (GRC), la notion de résilience communautaire a motivé une série d'études axées sur la conceptualisation, le dimensionnement et la définition des piliers de ce construit. Cette étude cherche à décrire les dimensions de la résilience des communautés face à la menace d'une faille géologique active située dans les contreforts de la Région Métropolitaine du Chili. Un questionnaire a été appliqué à 43 leaders sociaux de Peñalolen ; ensuite, une analyse statistique des 27 éléments fermés et une analyse thématique quantitative des trois éléments ouverts a été réalisé. Les résultats indiquent cinq dimensions clés de la résilience communautaire: la gouvernance; évaluation des risques; connaissances culturelles et éducation; gestion des risques et réduction de la vulnérabilité et des stratégies organisationnelles pour la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes. Enfin, l'importance de ces dimensions de la résilience communautaire dans des contextes de vulnérabilités chroniques et qui se chevauchent est discuté, tout en soulignant la nécessité de développer de meilleures mesures institutionnelles pour la prévention, la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes.

This paper investigates the use of early warning tools as part of Ethiopia's Disaster Risk Management framework. Analyzing, in particular, the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection tool, Livelihood Integrated Assessment and Hotspots Assessments, the paper delineates the scope and objectives of existing early warning tools, their commonalities and limitations. From a disaster risk financing and insurance perspective, the paper investigates possible enhancements in the existing early warning framework and its use that could facilitate greater timeliness of drought response. The paper argues that based on the existing early warning instruments and continued improvements to the early warning systems, it is possible to enable early action during the onset of a drought.

The objective of the report is to raise awareness of the fiscal impacts that natural disasters have on the budget of the Government of Sri Lanka. It is envisioned to be used as a planning tool for the potential development of a comprehensive disaster risk financing and insurance strategy that would equip the Ministry of Finance with additional instruments to manage the contingent liability posed by disasters. Its recommendations are a starting point for a collaborative discussion with the government on the potential development of a broad program.

Those at risk from natural disasters are typically under-protected, possibly because they expect benefactors such as governments and donors to come to their aid. Yet when relief comes, it is often insufficient, delayed or misallocated. Benefactors may wish to commit to provide an efficient amount of fast well-targeted relief, and leave the rest up to recipients, but such commitments are difficult. This article analyses how transferring risk to third-parties such as private insurers may help resolve these commitment problems. Using a simple model of disaster risk finance is used to identify three distinct commitment problems and then show how various properties of risk transfer schemes can help to resolve these problems. The paper illustrates how these commitment problems play out using examples from around the world, and demonstrates where risk transfer schemes seem to have helped in practice. Overall, the findings show that the benefits of such schemes depend on the relative severity of the different commitment problems.

In the past decades, natural disasters have caused substantial human and economic losses in Central America, with strong adverse impacts on gross domestic product per capita, income, and poverty reduction. This study provides a regional perspective on the impact of hurricane windstorms on socioeconomic measures in the short term. Apart from modeling the socioeconomic impact at the macro and micro levels, the study incorporates and juxtaposes data from a hurricane windstorm model categorizing three hurricane damage indexes, which lends a higher level of detail, nuance, and therefore accuracy and comprehensiveness to the study. One standard deviation in the intensity of a hurricane windstorm leads to a decrease in growth of total per capita gross domestic product of between 0.9 and 1.6 percent, and a decrease in total income and labor income by 3 percent, which in turn increases moderate and extreme poverty by 1.5 percentage points. These results demonstrate the causal relationship between hurricane windstorm impacts and poverty in Central America, producing regional evidence that could improve targeting of disaster risk management policies toward those most impacted and thus whose needs are greatest.

Since 2013 The World Bank Group has partnered with the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and the U.K. Department for International Development to address some of these gaps in evidence and methodologies. The Disaster Risk Finance Impact Analytics Project has made significant contributions to the understanding of how to monitor and evaluate existing or potential investments in disaster risk finance from a development perspective, and to the evidence base for where such investments have development impact.This note summarizes the findings of this project, presenting the key messages of a book, a technical report, and 14 research papers, categorized into four themes.

This paper addresses the question whether and how co-benefits, through disaster resilience building, can be further promoted. Co-benefits are defined as positive externalities that arise deliberately as a result of a joint strategy that pursues several objectives synergistically at the same time, such as disaster risk management and development goals, or disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. Of particular interest is the question of how the economic and broader benefits of disaster risk management can be recognized and realized by those in charge of fiscal policy decisions. The paper considers the interplay between public disaster risk management investment and fiscal policy, and provides an overview of the current debate as well as assessment methods, tools, and policy options. In fiscal budgeting, it has been standard practice to focus on direct liabilities and recurrent spending. Costs of disasters are often dealt with after the fact only, rather than being considered as contingent liabilities. As a consequence, the full costs of disasters have often not been budgeted for, and, with a price signal missing, there is lack of clear incentives for investing in disaster risk management. Overall, the paper identifies four steps and three dividends to be harnessed: (i) understanding fiscal risk; (ii) protecting public finance through risk financing instruments, the first dividend; (iii) managing disaster risk comprehensively, the second dividend; and (iv) pursuing a synergistic, co-benefits strategy of concurrently managing disaster risks and promoting development, the third dividend.

Global economic losses from natural disasters continue to increase. Yet, investments in disaster risk management are not universal, as they are traditionally seen as in competition with other development and economic priorities. The multitude of benefits from disaster risk management investments are not traditionally accounted for in cost-benefit analyses. This paper contributes to this discussion by highlighting the multiple benefits from disaster risk management investments, focusing on the avoided losses when a disaster occurs, but also on the impacts on economic development even before a disaster strikes. The paper's main message is that disaster risk management investments can provide two dividends: reduced losses when a disaster strikes, and a shift of investment strategies and perhaps even an increase in investment value that would benefit the economy even before a disaster strikes. Providing evidence to policy makers and investors about the existence of both types of dividends can provide a narrative reconciling short-term and long-term objectives, thereby improving the acceptability and feasibility of disaster risk management investments.

This disaster risk financing country note for Serbia provides an overview of the way its government currently finances the costs imposed by natural disasters. Meanwhile, poverty deepened after the financial crisis and during the recessions of 2012 and 2014, mainly because of losses in employment and labor income. In an effort to overcome its fiscal challenges, the government of Serbia adopted an ambitious fiscal consolidation and structural reform program to halt the rise in public debt and send it on a downward trajectory by 2017. This program is supported by a three-year stand-by arrangement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Because of the growing frequency and severity of disasters, the government has faced the rising costs of responding to disasters as well as the challenges of financing emergency response and reconstruction costs. Having sufficient access to financial instruments and resources in order to respond to disasters is crucial for building the financial resilience of the country and minimizing the negative impact of natural disasters on Serbia’s economic growth. In this report, chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides the background and country context, including the recent economic impacts of disasters. Chapter three reviews the current institutional and legal framework for disaster risk management and financing. Chapter four is a review of the public financial management of disasters in Serbia, including ex ante and ex post disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) instruments currently in use for budget mobilization, and it looks at the 2014 floods in more detail. The chapter concludes with a summary of financial resources available and a look at the potential resource gaps.

Disasters resulting from natural hazards represent an important challenge for Colombia’s fiscal sustainability and stability. Colombia is one of the countries with the highest recurrence rate of disasters caused by natural hazards in Latin America (see the Annex)1. As the country’s population and economy continue to grow, so will the economic losses resulting from such events, an average of 600 disaster events of which is reported per year2. Colombia’s rate of economic growth is increasing the base of assets exposed to disaster risks, which may lead to significant increases in losses, particularly if investments in new assets are not accompanied by plans for mitigating disaster risk. The Government of Colombia (GoC) recognizes the importance of mitigating these events and has taken several steps to mainstream disaster risk management into its policy and programs, as evinced by the National Development Plan ‘2014-2018’, ‘all for a New Country’. The MHCP is committed to developing strategies for reducing its contingent liabilities in relation to disasters and to managing the fiscal risk resulting from these events. This document presents the priority policy objectives that have been established to assess, reduce, and manage fiscal risk due to natural disasters. It also describes the MHCP’s efforts to progress its policy objectives in the long term. These policy objectives represent the MHCP’s ex ante policy framework regarding management of financial and fiscal disaster risk. The MHCP identifies three priority policy objectives in order to strengthen management of the Government’s contingent liabilities and thus support the goal of achieving macroeconomic stability and fiscal balance. The policy objectives are: (i) identification and understanding of fiscal risk due to disasters; (ii) financial management of natural disaster risk, including the implementation of innovative financial instruments; and (iii) catastrophe risk insurance for public assets.

The empirical literature on the relationship between natural disaster risk and investment in education is inconclusive. Model averaging methods in a framework of cross-country and panel regressions show an extremely robust negative partial correlation between secondary school enrollment and natural disaster risk. This result is driven exclusively by geologic disasters. Exposure to natural disaster risk is a robust determinant of differences in secondary school enrollment between countries but not necessarily within countries. Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / the world bank . All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to shocks, including those caused by natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Previous studies in local contexts have shown that poor people are also often overrepresented in hazard-prone areas. However, systematic evidence across countries demonstrating this finding is lacking. This paper analyzes at the country level whether poor people are disproportionally exposed to floods and droughts, and how this exposure may change in a future climate. To this end, household survey data with spatial identifiers from 52 countries are combined with present-day and future flood and drought hazard maps. The paper defines and calculates a “poverty exposure bias” and finds support that poor people are often overexposed to droughts and urban floods. For floods, no such signal is found for rural households, suggesting that different mechanisms—such as land scarcity—are more important drivers in urban areas. The poverty exposure bias does not change significantly under future climate scenarios, although the absolute number of people potentially exposed to floods or droughts can increase or decrease significantly, depending on the scenario and the region. The study finds some evidence of regional patterns: in particular, many countries in Africa exhibit a positive poverty exposure bias for floods and droughts. For these hot spots, implementing risk-sensitive land-use and development policies that protect poor people should be a priority.

This paper evaluates how the Philippines utilize social protection systems and programs to help households better manage disaster risk. Exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters and the effects of climate change are particularly high in the Philippines. At the same time, the Philippines has developed one of the most advanced social protection systems in the East Asia Pacific region. The Department of Social Welfare and Development is prominently integrated into the national disaster risk management framework of the Philippines, taking the lead coordinating role in disaster response activities. Consequently, social protection programs are on the frontlines of disaster response in the Philippines. This paper focuses specifically on the devastating impact of Typhoon Yolanda, which struck the country in November 2013, as a case study against which the Philippines’ social protection response can be assessed.

Megacity Dhaka encounters various kinds of natural disasters quite frequently owing to its geographical location and a number of other physical and environmental conditions including low topography, land characteristics, multiplicity of rivers and the monsoon climate. Climate and disaster resilience is not the same in all parts of a city. Spatial variations in resilience patterns result from differences in the strengths and weaknesses of the city’s economic, social, physical, institutional or natural aspects across its various parts. Traditional frameworks to assess adaptive capacity at the local level have focused largely on assets and capitals as indicators. While useful in understanding the capacity of a system to cope with disasters and adapt to changing environments, asset-oriented approaches overlook the processes and functions of a system (for example, governance system, community participation in decision-making, knowledge dissemination and management, structure of institutions and entitlements etc.) that are important aspects influencing the capacity of a human system to respond to climate change events.

At the request of the government of Kenya and under its guidance, a team of national and international experts conducted an appraisal of different agricultural insurance options for Kenya.This appraisal, as set out in this document and the accompanying technical analysis, lays out the costs and benefits of developing large-scale agricultural insurance that involves both the public and private spheres.The analysis considers potential structures for large-scale agricultural insurance in Kenya, the fiscal cost to the government of Kenya, and the economic benefits for farmers and pastoralists. In order for it to partner with the private sector to prepare and implement a large scale agricultural insurance program, the government should consider taking the following next steps.The government of Kenya may build on there commendations by the Program Steering Committee to take the lead in formulating a national policy on agriculture insurance, in cooperation with county administrations and private insurance companies. The government of Kenya may develop a road map for establishing the institutions required for large-scale agricultural insurance programs, with the goal of covering at least a fifth of Kenya’s agricultural producers. As next steps for establishing livestock insurance, the government of Kenya may decide how to integrate the proposed insurance product with other existing protection mechanisms. As next steps for crop insurance, the government of Kenya may seek consultations with agricultural banks and work with private sector insurers to develop a data audit system acceptable to international reinsurers.

Social protection can help build people’s social and economic resilience against disasters in Myanmar. Regular cash transfers, including public works programs, can help smooth consumption,build and maintain assets, and develop human capital to better cope with natural hazards. Disaster risk management (DRM) systems can be linked to social protection programs to trigger a safetynet response in times of emergencies. Community-driven development (CDD) programs could provide a useful platform for social protection programming to respond to disasters and build long termresilience in Myanmar.

This paper presents an overview of the structure of probabilistic catastrophe risk models, discusses their importance for appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments and strategy, and puts forward a model and a process for improving decision making on the linked disaster risk management strategy and sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategy. The paper discusses governments use of probabilistic catastrophe models to inform sovereign disaster risk financing decision making and describes the ex ante and ex post financing instruments available for responding to extreme natural events. It also discusses the challenge of appraising sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance instruments, including a review of the multiple dimensions of disaster risks and the value that probabilistic catastrophe risk models provide. The decision making framework for sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance put forward by the paper includes the use of a decision model (an influence diagram) as a rigorous representation of the relationships between the decisions, uncertain events, and consequences relevant to sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making. The framework also includes a process for generating high-quality customized components for the decision model, and a tool for designing coherent sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance strategies. The paper ends with suggestions for improving catastrophe risk models to facilitate sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance decision making.

The welfare impact of a disaster does not depend only on the physical characteristics of the event or its direct impacts in terms of lost lives and assets. Depending on the ability of the economy to cope, recover, and reconstruct, the reconstruction will be more or less difficult, and the welfare effects smaller or larger. This ability, which can be referred to as the macroeconomic resilience of the economy to natural disasters, is an important parameter to estimate the overall vulnerability of a population. Here, resilience is decomposed into two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of the immediate loss of income for a given amount of capital losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover quickly. The paper proposes a rule of thumb to estimate macroeconomic resilience, based on the interest rate (a higher interest rate decreases resilience and increases welfare losses), the reconstruction duration (a longer reconstruction duration increases welfare losses), and a “ripple-effect” factor that increases or decreases immediate losses (negative if enough idle resources are available to cope; positive if cross-sector and supply-chain issues impair the production of non-affected capital). An optimal risk management strategy is very likely to include measures to reduce direct impacts (disaster risk reduction actions) and measures to reduce indirect impacts (resilience building actions).

Uninsured natural disasters can have devastating effects on human welfare and economic growth, particularly in developing countries where large segments of the population are in poverty and government resources and capacity to assist in relief, recovery, and reconstruction are limited. Therefore there is interest in exploring how these countries can design and implement disaster relief financing and insurance programs. This paper discusses four aspects of the microeconomics of disaster relief financing and insurance programs that are important for the ex post impact evaluation of such programs: (1) use of game setups to analyze the private willingness-to-pay for disaster protection through risk transfer or risk retention instruments; (2) use of ex post analysis of existing disaster relief financing and insurance schemes (such as Mexico’s programs) to analyze the willingness to provide political support to such schemes; (3) use of ex post analysis of existing schemes to analyze not only ex post coping with shock, but also the ex ante risk management impact of disaster relief financing and insurance schemes, with the expectation that the latter can have a large effects on growth; and (4) use of mainly global data to do ex post impact analysis of natural disasters and the resilience-enhancing value of disaster relief financing and insurance schemes (examples exist for the disaster-impact relationship that can be extended to the role of disaster relief financing and insurance in risk reduction, coping with shock, and risk management). The paper proposes concrete research projects to pursue the analysis of these four dimensions of micro-level impacts of disaster relief financing and insurance.

Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events and has experienced a wide range of disasters over the past 40 years, including floods, earthquakes, droughts, cyclones, and tsunamis. The World Bank is supporting the Government of Pakistan (GoP) in building capacity in the area of disaster risk management (DRM) in order to build resilience from both humanitarian and fiscal shocks associated with natural disasters. The World Bank is providing technical assistance to the GoP for the development of a national disaster risk financing strategy. This non-lending technical assistance aims to: (i) assess the fiscal exposure of the GoP to natural disasters; (ii) present options for the development of a national strategy to improve financial response capacity for natural disasters; and (iii) promote property catastrophe risk insurance for both public and private dwellings. Disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) is one of the five pillars in the proactive and strategic framework for DRM promoted by the World Bank. The World Bank has been promoting a proactive and strategic framework for DRM based on five pillars: (i) risk identification; (ii) risk reduction; (iii) preparedness; (iv) financial protection; and (v) resilient recovery. Chapter one is introduction. Chapter two presents an overview of the budget processes for the financing of natural disaster losses during each of the three post-disaster phases. Chapter three provides a preliminary financial disaster risk assessment for Pakistan, focusing particularly on the fiscal impact of natural disasters. Chapter four presents an overview of the private catastrophe insurance market; and chapter five reviews the options for future financing of natural disaster recovery and reconstruction expenditures.

This note aims to build understanding of the existing disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) tools in use in The Marshall Islands and to identify gaps where potential engagement could further develop financial resilience. The likelihood that a hazardous event will have a significant impact on the Marshall Islands has risen with the increasing levels of population and assets in the urban areas of Majuro and Ebeye. The low-lying atolls are at risk of damage to both assets and people as a result of storm surges and tsunamis. The Marshall Islands is expected to incur, on average over the long term, annual losses of US$3 million due to earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years, the Marshall Islands has a 50 percent chance of experiencing a loss exceeding US$53 million. The government takes an ex-ante approach to financing the cost of disasters, but the resources available are limited. The Marshall Islands has a maximum amount of US$15.6 million potentially available in ex-ante instruments to facilitate disaster response. The government s post-disaster budget execution process relies on a variety of financial tools, but the size of the economy limits access to immediate post-disaster cash resources. A number of options for improving disaster risk financing and insurance are presented here for consideration: (a) develop an integrated disaster risk financing and insurance strategy; (b) assess the domestic insurance market for both public and private assets to establish what products are currently offered and to determine their level of uptake; (c) carry out a quantitative analysis to determine whether contingent credit could be an effective tool to access additional liquidity post-disaster; and (d) investigate the possibility of establishing policies for financial assistance to disaster victims in remote communities.

This note aims to build understanding of the existing disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) tools in use in Fiji and to identify gaps where potential engagement could further develop financial resilience. In addition the note aims to encourage peer exchange of regional knowledge, specifically by encouraging dialogue on past experiences, lessons learned, optimal use of these financial tools, and the effect they may have on the execution of post-disaster funds. In 2012 alone Fiji experienced three major events with estimated total damage of F$146 million (US$78 million). Fiji is expected to incur, on average over the long term, annual losses of F$158 million (US$85 million) due to earthquakes and tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years Fiji has a 50 percent chance of experiencing a loss exceeding F$1,500 million (US$806 million). The country has a taken a proactive approach to DRFI and developed a finance manual for post-disaster budget execution. The government now has F$3 million (US$1.6 million) available in DRFI instruments to facilitate disaster response and also implemented tax concessions to encourage donations in the wake of tropical cyclone Evan. A number of options to support ongoing DRFI improvements in Fiji are presented for consideration: (a) the finance manual developed by the Ministry of Finance for post-disaster procedures should be finalized, and cabinet approval should be sought; (b) an overarching disaster risk financing and insurance strategy should be developed that includes options for risk transfer; and (c) assets should be identified in order to develop an insurance program for critical public assets.

This country note is produced is part of The Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment andFinancing Initiative (PCRAFI). The geographic spread of the Cook Islands poses logistical problems for any necessary post-disaster relief and response efforts. The events of 2005 demonstrated that the Cook Islands is extremely vulnerable to the threat of tropical cyclones (TCs): in the two months of February and March 2005, TCs Meena, Nancy, Olaf, Percy, and Rae swept the country. The Cook Islands is expected to incur, on average, about NZ$6 million (US$4.9 million) per year in losses due to tropical cyclones. In the next 50 years, the Cook Islands has a 50 percent chance of experiencing a per-event loss exceeding NZ$97 million (US$79.5 million. The Cook Islands has a proactive approach to disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI), which is supported by the upper echelons of government. In January 2011, the prime minister in his role as chair of the National Disaster Risk Management Council requested that the Ministry of Finance and Economic Management look at ways to become self-reliant in initial disaster response and generate new income streams for investment in a fund specifically for disaster management response and recovery. The Cook Islands has available a maximum amount of NZ$5.6 million (US$4.6 million) in the form of contingency funds and catastrophe risk insurance to facilitate disaster response. A number of options for further improving the Cook Islands financial protection against disasters are presented for consideration: (a) the development of an integrated DRFI strategy; (b) investigation of using contingent credit to access additional liquidity post-disaster; (c) development of an operations manual for post-disaster budget mobilization and execution; and (d) the identification of assets to be included in an insurance program for critical public assets.

Disasters associated with the impact of natural hazards have had adverse social and fiscal effects on Panama over time, and the Government of Panama (GoP) is therefore committed to strengthening the financial management of disaster risks. Actions taken by the GoP in financial management of disaster risk are consistent with law 34 of June 5, 2008, the law on social fiscal responsibility. This law aims to establish norms, principles, and methodologies for consolidating fiscal discipline in national financial management of the public sector, a necessary condition for continuous and sustainable economic growth. The strategic framework was developed with the support of regional and international entities. The document incorporates a number of important lessons learned from international experience: (i) include disaster risks as part of an integrated framework of fiscal risk management; (ii) ensure that governments have access to immediate funds following a disaster; (iii) consider the creation of a national disaster fund; and (iv) reduce the government's contingent liabilities against disasters associated with the impact of natural hazards by insuring critical public assets and promoting the private insurance market for catastrophic risks and agricultural insurance. The strategic framework has the following five strategic pillars: (i) identification, quantification, and understanding of fiscal risk due to disasters; (ii) incorporation of disaster risk analysis in the planning of public investment; (iii) formulation of components for developing and implementing risk retention and transfer instruments; (iv) development of the domestic insurance market; and (v) strengthening of the state directorate of investment, concessions, and risks (DICRE) so it can fulfill its role in designing and implementing financial protection strategies.

Partnerships and trust funds are big business for the World Bank Group. It participates in around 126 global partnership programs and administers more than 1000 trust funds which have become a significant source of revenue for the Bank Group and its clients. Partnership and trust funds offer opportunities for the Bank to benefit from partners skills and resources, extend its reach, and innovate. Some programs and funds are complementary to the Bank or fill gaps, for example on global public goods. IEG has found that most partnership programs tackle relevant development problems and that the Bank often makes strong contributions. But there are also risks, for example proliferation of uncoordinated or competing initiatives and high transaction costs. A key challenge facing the World Bank Group, therefore, is to make sure that its engagements in partnerships and trust funds create shared value for its client countries and support its goals of ending extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity goals. As emphasized in the World Bank Group strategy, engaging in strong and well-aligned partnerships can help the Group enhance its contributions to global development, but the evaluation experience summarized in this note suggests that there is room to improve. IEG has recommended reforms (summarized at the end of this note) to help the Bank address these challenges via internal reforms to ensure selectivity, routine corporate oversight, and policies and standards around partnership governance, engagement strategies for individual programs, empowerment of staff serving on partnership boards, and results frameworks.

This report summarizes the knowledge shared and issues raised during a conference convened by the World Bank on the above topic held on November 3-5, 2014 in Manila, Philippines. Building on earlier conferences on this topic, the conference aimed to raise awareness about, and share good practice on, building a social protection system that integrates disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. It brought together 17 country delegations from Asia and Pacific region comprised of officials from the ministries managing social protection, disaster risk management, and financing and insurance.2 As such, it was both cross-global practice and cross-regional in focus. The conference offered a range of learning opportunities, including presentations from technical experts from the World Bank, country case studies from Asia, Africa and Latin America, roundtable discussions, and group work sessions. The conference was conducted in collaboration with the Government of the Philippines and was financed by the Rapid Social Response Fund and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery.

After the last Champions’ meeting in April, an expert-level group consisting of donors, insurers and international financial institutions was formed to act on the decision to undertake joint work to scale up disaster risk insurance in lower income countries. Seven countries were selected: Bangladesh, Ghana, Haiti, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and Vietnam. The World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GDFRR) led in preparing country scoping studies with inputs from the group. These were summarized in a set of country notes. From the country scoping studies, the expert-level group proposes that Kenya, Bangladesh and Senegal are selected for the next phase. This will involve confirming the interest and commitment of the governments to engage in this initiative and undertaking field visits to conduct more detailed, in-country assessment to identify opportunities for scaling up insurance in support of building resilience. Each assessment will result in a recommended program of investment to stimulate insurance scale up. This will include recommendations on how to improve the coordination of existing efforts, how to fill gaps (such as continued investment in market infrastructure), how to scale up pilot initiatives and how to better link insurance solutions to existing financial products (such as credit) and social protection programs. By early 2014, the assessments will be completed. By April 2014, the recommended program of investment for each country will be presented to the donor and insurance community involved in this Political Champions’ initiative for their consideration and commitment of support.

Senegal is implementing a Disaster Risk Management (DRM) framework and has established a public private agriculture insurance company. Rules, responsibilities and operational procedures need clarification, ideally guided by the findings of a fiscal disaster risk assessment. Insurance mechanisms are not considered in (sovereign) catastrophe risk transfer so far. Additional investment in and guidance with data market infrastructure would be necessary for sovereign DRM but would also benefit the spread of catastrophe property insurance for households, businesses and even low income populations who are beginning to see flood micro-insurance. With the public private agriculture insurance company, Senegal has a unique partner for rural outreach that could go beyond agriculture insurance. But the company would require technical support to achieve sustainability and find its role in the social protection framework. There is a unique window of opportunity for micro-insurance in Senegal as specific regulation is being implemented. This has generated momentum that can significantly grow the outreach of insurance but calls for technical and financial support. The most immediate opportunities for promising multi stakeholder interventions in Senegal are in agriculture insurance, where various initiatives have begun specifying the potential. Credit linked property micro-insurance against floods could be explored.

Bangladesh has a comprehensive Disaster Management plan, but details on the implementation and sufficiency of funding should be clarified. Strengthening financial disclosure could encourage greater engagement from key local and international stakeholders. The country also offers great opportunities to increase the outreach of insurance to larger sections of the population, especially to those most vulnerable to the substantial exposure to natural hazards and especially flood. The micro-finance market is well developed and provides opportunities to expand the still very limited availability of micro-insurance propositions to the rural population. Index-based insurance programs supported by mobile payment systems have already been piloted and there is considerable scope for this to be expanded, especially when appropriately subsidized to address affordability issues. However, this will require further strengthening of the insurance market, in respect of the implementation of the Insurance Act 2010 and of consumer representation, which is underdeveloped but may contribute strongly to improve the public’s confidence and help the industry to develop successful propositions also for emerging customers.

Responding appropriately to the country’s high exposure and vulnerability to natural disasters, and capitalizing on a well-functioning insurance industry, Vietnam has embraced insurance mechanisms in disaster risk management and agriculture more vigorously than most developing countries. But some initiatives like the disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategy’s mandate to implement disaster risk insurance are yet to be conceived, while others such as the agriculture insurance scheme have been launched but experienced unsustainable outcomes and need strengthening. Technical assistance to guide this process can have substantial impact, and could include the consolidation of available risk modeling and hazard maps and closing major gaps these may have. Appropriate insurance of public assets will further strengthen the property insurance sector and justify investment in risk models and underwriting expertise that will subsequently be available for businesses and households. A public private partnership pursuing flood insurance for the urban poor in collaboration with existing community-based Disaster Risk Management programs could capitalize on the nascent micro-insurance market and further strengthen inclusive insurance. Vietnam has strong appetite for agriculture and catastrophe property insurance, and the governance structure as well as insurance industry to secure the desired impact of investments. Better incorporating agriculture and catastrophe property insurance principles in social safety net programs could increase the protection of larger populations.

The Pacific Region is one of the most natural disaster prone regions on earth. The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are highly exposed to the adverse effects of climate change and natural hazards, which can result in disasters affecting their entire economic, human, and physical environment and impact their long-term development agenda. The average annual direct losses caused by natural disasters are estimated at US$284 million. Since 1950 natural disasters have affected approximately 9.2 million people in the Pacific Region, causing 9,811 reported deaths. This has cost the PICs around US$3.2 billion (in nominal terms) in associated damage costs. This report focuses on the development of the country catastrophe risk profiles, the information collected, how it was catalogued and processed, and now being used for a variety of applications in Climate and Disaster Risk Management. The country risk profiles integrate data collected and produced through risk modeling and include maps showing the geographic distribution of assets and people at risk (section one), hazards assessed (section two) and potential monetary losses and casualties (section three). The profiles also include an analysis of the possible direct losses (in absolute terms and normalized by GDP) caused by tropical cyclones and earthquakes, and their impact though severe winds, rainfall, coastal storm surge, ground shaking and tsunami waves. The expected return period indicates the likelihood of a certain specified loss amount to be exceeded in any one year.

GFDRR was established in September 2006 as a global partnership of the World Bank, UN agencies and bilateral donors, located in World Bank headquarters in Washington, DC. Its missions are (a) to mainstream disaster reduction and climate change adaptation (CCA) in country development strategies, and (b) to foster and strengthen global and regional cooperation among various stakeholders under the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) system. GFDRR supports the implementation of the UN 2005-2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA). This international agreement in relation to disaster risk reduction (DRR) arose from a 168-nation UN conference held in Kyoto, Japan, in 2005. The key player for coordinating the implementation of HFA is the UNISDR bureau with headquarters in Geneva and eight regional offices worldwide. Another UN agency with operational responsibility for UN disaster related work is the UNDP-BCPR. These two UN agencies and GFDRR have complementary goals, creating potential for collaboration among the three organizations, but also calling for care in monitoring the risk of overlapping work among them and other DRR actors. UNISDR was a founding partner of GFDRR and UNDP-BCPR became a permanent observer to GFDRR in 2008.

The report titled ‘contingent liabilities: the Colombian experience,’ is the first publication on the management of contingent liabilities in Colombia. Published by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (MHCP), the report highlights technical and normative efforts and policy reforms on the management of contingent liabilities implemented by the Colombian Government. Policy reforms disclosed in the report pertain to the management of contingent liabilities borne by the Government from four different sources, namely public credit operations, contractual public-private partnerships on infrastructure development, legal actions against the Colombian Government, and contingencies resulting from natural disasters. Importantly, although natural disasters are the second most important source of contingent liabilities faced by the Colombian Government, most formal policy reforms have been directed to the institutionalization of managing the first three sources of contingencies, while legal reforms for the explicit accounting of natural disasters is an ongoing effort in Colombia.

FONDEN (Natural Disasters Fund), Mexico's fund for natural disasters, was established in the late 1990s as a mechanism to support the rapid rehabilitation of federal and state infrastructure affected by adverse natural events. FONDEN was first created as a budget line in the Federal expenditure budget of 1996, and became operational in 1999. Funds from FONDEN could be used for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of: 1) public infrastructure at the three levels of government (federal, state, and municipal); 2) low-income housing; and 3) certain components of the natural environment. FONDEN consists of two complementary budget accounts, the FONDEN program for reconstruction and FOPREDEN program for prevention, and their respective financial accounts. The FONDEN program for reconstruction is FONDEN's primary budget account. It channels resources from the federal expenditure budget to specific reconstruction programs. The FOPREDEN program for prevention supports disaster prevention by funding activities related to risk assessment, risk reduction, and capacity building on disaster prevention. The FONDEN system is continuously evolving to integrate lessons learned over the course of years of experience.

This report argues that the practice of disaster risk management (DRM) is a defining characteristic of resilient societies, and should therefore be integrated, or 'mainstreamed', into all aspects of development. The report will inform the Development Committee at the annual meetings 2012, and support discussion at the Sendai dialogue, a special event co-organized by the Government of Japan and the World Bank as part of the Annual Meetings program. This event will engage delegates on the importance of mainstreaming DRM, drawing upon the lessons from the great East Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011, and other disasters. This paper includes the following headings: disasters and development: an alarming trend; disaster risk management in action; national policies and planning; International Development Cooperation; disaster risk management at the World Bank; the way forward: priorities and opportunities; and glossary and references.

Nearly half of East Asia population lives in cities and the region is urbanizing so rapidly that built up areas are projected to increase faster here than in any other region in the next twenty years. Still, more than half of slum dwellers around the world live in East Asia. These are the people most vulnerable to disaster impacts. Given that Asia accounted for more than a third of the number of all reported disasters in 2010, and that natural disasters have quadrupled in the region during the past twenty years the fastest rate of increase of any region in the world managing urban growth for resilience is increasingly important. And yet, many cities do not have master plans to guide their projected growth, let alone tools for risk sensitive land use planning. The impetus for action will come from accessible tools that allow local policymakers to first minimize risk today and then think about addressing future risk. This methodology report describes the underlying risk components, including a description of the models required inputs related to metropolitan elements at risk, hazard sub-indices for thirteen hazard types and thirty parameters of physical, socioeconomic, and institutional vulnerability. In addition to this report, three city reports present results that can be used by a variety of users from those interested in the overall city wide risk from all natural hazards to those interested in more disaggregated information.

This report aims to advance the dialogue on creative, forward-looking solutions for developing countries by presenting recent innovations on disaster risk financing and insurance developed by the private markets as well as the international donor community, from the macro (government) level down to the micro (household) level. It discusses how these innovations can be adapted and implemented in developing countries to better protect efficiently those countries against the financial consequences of natural disasters. Section one provides an introduction to the economic and fiscal impacts of natural disasters on developing countries. Section two examines examples of innovation in the private insurance and capital markets that may have applications in sovereign disaster risk financing for developing countries. Section three examines how innovations coming out of mature property catastrophe risk insurance (PCRI) markets could serve in low and middle-income countries. Section four considers how innovation is taking seed in creative disaster micro insurance programs in low- and middle-income countries. Section five wraps up the report with brief concluding remarks.

This paper makes the case for why safety nets are an important tool for managing the risk of natural hazards. The use of safety nets is advocated both ex ante, to prevent and mitigate the impact of natural disaster and ex post, to cope with the impacts of natural shocks. Firstly, the paper explores the implications of contextual factors to be taken into account in the design of an effective safety net system to respond to the needs generated by natural disasters. Learning from the responses to a number of recent natural disasters, a typology of the different types of natural hazards which require different approaches to reduce their risk is introduced. Secondly, the paper considers some 'guidelines' for improving the design and implementation of safety nets either to prevent and/or to recover from natural disasters. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations for more effective safety net and suggestions for addressing key issues are outlined.

This document aims to provide a concise collection of those good practices and challenges that have recently been identified by evaluative work on natural disaster response of the World Bank, the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), and other major actors. It is hoped that the lessons identified can be used by World Bank staff engaged in work related to natural disasters, to gain insights into approaches that may promote or hinder effective assistance to partner countries. Although great international attention is focused on the occurrence of disasters and the short term response to them, this phase is only part of the overall disaster management cycle. This cycle includes three main phases pre-disaster, disaster response, and post-disaster each of which has an appropriate range of activities. Evaluations have provided many lessons for this phase. However, these generally also carry over into the post-disaster phase, and even further into the next pre-disaster phase. Some of the lessons may partially contradict each other (for example, the value of local participation may cut across the benefits of speedy action), which means that trade-offs must be developed for each specific situation.

Cities face significant impacts from climate change, both now and into the future. These impacts have potentially serious consequences for human health, livelihoods, and assets, especially for the urban poor, informal settlements, and other vulnerable groups. Climate change impacts range from an increase in extreme weather events and flooding to hotter temperatures and public health concerns. Cities in low elevation coastal zones, for instance, face the combined threat of sea-level rise and storm surges. The specific impacts on each city will depend on the actual changes in climate experienced (for example, higher temperatures or increased rainfall), which will vary from place to place. Climate change will increase the frequency at which some natural hazards occur, especially extreme weather events, and introduce new incremental impacts that are less immediate. However, few climate impacts will be truly unfamiliar to cities. Cities have always lived with natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and flooding. In some situations, cities will experience an increase in the frequency of existing climate-related hazards, such as flooding. Climate change considerations can be integrated with disaster risk reduction (DRR) in cities. DRR efforts already familiar to many may be used as a platform from which to develop climate change adaptation plans. In practical terms, disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation can be integrated in many instances, although cities should also consider incremental or gradual changes in climate that affect government operations or community life in less immediate and visible ways than conventional disasters. Approaches to collecting information on climate change impacts in a city can range from highly technical and resource-intensive, to simple and inexpensive. Technically complex assessments are likely to require collaboration with external experts, if a city is not large or well-resourced with sufficient in-house capacity.

The provention consortium was created in February 2000 as a formal partnership between the World Bank, other International Financial Institutions (IFIs), bilateral donor organizations, the insurance sector, the academic community, and civil society. Designed as a think-tank to commission research and to disseminate risk reduction tools, the provention secretariat was to rotate from one partner organization to another. Thus, after three years at the Bank, the secretariat was transferred to the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Geneva. The overall goal of provention is to reduce the social, economic, and environmental impacts of natural disasters on vulnerable populations in developing countries in order to alleviate poverty and contribute to sustainable development. This is achieved through (a) forging partnerships; (b) promoting policy; (c) improving practice; and (d) sharing knowledge. Under the Washington-based Secretariat, provention supported four types of activities: applied research studies, pilot and demonstration projects, education and training activities, and workshops and conferences. Provention was repeatedly criticized for its weak governance structure. Therefore, the secretariat commissioned a governance review in 2005. The governance review recommended reactivating the presiding council (PC); replacing the Steering Committee (SC) by a forum to discuss the impact of disasters in developing countries; and creating an Advisory Committee as the main governing body.