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This book provides, as simply as possible, sound foundations for an in-depth understanding of reliability engineering with regard to qualitative analysis, modelling, and probabilistic calculations of safety and production systems. Drawing on the authors'extensive experience within the field of reliability engineering, it addresses and discusses a variety of topics, including: • Background and overview of safety and dependability studies; • Explanation and critical analysis of definitions related to core concepts; • Risk identification through qualitative approaches (preliminary hazard analysis, HAZOP, FMECA, etc.); • Modelling of industrial systems through static (fault tree, reliability block diagram), sequential (cause-consequence diagrams, event trees, LOPA, bowtie), and dynamic (Markov graphs, Petri nets) approaches; • Probabilistic calculations through state-of-the-art analytical or Monte Carlo simulation techniques; • Analysis, modelling, and calculations of common cause failure and uncertainties; • Linkages and combinations between the various modelling and calculation approaches; • Reliability data collection and standardization. The book features illustrations, explanations, examples, and exercises to help readers gain a detailed understanding of the topic and implement it into their own work. Further, it analyses the production availability of production systems and the functional safety of safety systems (SIL calculations), showcasing specific applications of the general theory discussed. Given its scope, this book is a valuable resource for engineers, software designers, standard developers, professors, and students.

Probabilistic modeling represents a subject spanning many branches of mathematics, economics, and computer science to connect pure mathematics with applied sciences. Operational research also relies on this connection to enable the improvement of business functions and decision making. Analyzing Risk through Probabilistic Modeling in Operations Research is an authoritative reference publication discussing the various challenges in management and decision science. Featuring exhaustive coverage on a range of topics within operational research including, but not limited to, decision analysis, data mining, process modeling, probabilistic interpolation and extrapolation, and optimization methods, this book is an essential reference source for decision makers, academicians, researchers, advanced-level students, technology developers, and government officials interested in the implementation of probabilistic modeling in various business applications.

The aim of this book is to provide the scientific background to using the formation of chemical categories, or groups, of molecules to allow for read-across i.e. the prediction of toxicity from chemical structure. It covers the scientific basis for this approach to toxicity prediction including the methods to group compounds (structural analogues and / or similarity, mechanism of action) and the tools to achieve this. The approaches to perform read-across within a chemical category are also described. Chemical Toxicity Prediction provides concise practical guidance for those wishing to apply these methods (in risk / hazard assessment) and will be illustrated with case studies. This is the first book that addresses the concept of category formation and read-across for toxicity prediction specifically. This topic has really taken off in the past few years due to concerns over dealing with the REACH legislation and also due to the availability of the OECD (Q)SAR Toolbox. Much (lengthy and complex) guidance is available on category formation e.g. from the OECD and, to a lesser extent, the European Chemicals Agency but there is no one single source of information that covers all techniques in a concise user-friendly format.

Praise for the First Edition'... an excellent textbook... an indispensable reference for biostatisticians and epidemiologists.'—International Statistical Institute A new edition of the definitive guide to classical and modern methods of biostatistics Biostatistics consists of various quantitative techniques that are essential to the description and evaluation of relationships among biologic and medical phenomena. Biostatistical Methods: The Assessment of Relative Risks, Second Edition develops basic concepts and derives an expanded array of biostatistical methods through the application of both classical statistical tools and more modern likelihood-based theories. With its fluid and balanced presentation, the book guides readers through the important statistical methods for the assessment of absolute and relative risks in epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with categorical, count, and event-time data. Presenting a broad scope of coverage and the latest research on the topic, the author begins with categorical data analysis methods for cross-sectional, prospective, and retrospective studies of binary, polychotomous, and ordinal data. Subsequent chapters present modern model-based approaches that include unconditional and conditional logistic regression; Poisson and negative binomial models for count data; and the analysis of event-time data including the Cox proportional hazards model and its generalizations. The book now includes an introduction to mixed models with fixed and random effects as well as expanded methods for evaluation of sample size and power. Additional new topics featured in this Second Edition include: Establishing equivalence and non-inferiority Methods for the analysis of polychotomous and ordinal data, including matched data and the Kappa agreement index Multinomial logistic for polychotomous data and proportional odds models for ordinal data Negative binomial models for count data as an alternative to the Poisson model GEE models for the analysis of longitudinal repeated measures and multivariate observations Throughout the book, SAS is utilized to illustrate applications to numerous real-world examples and case studies. A related website features all the data used in examples and problem sets along with the author's SAS routines. Biostatistical Methods, Second Edition is an excellent book for biostatistics courses at the graduate level. It is also an invaluable reference for biostatisticians, applied statisticians, and epidemiologists.

The sophistication of modelling and simulation technologies have improved dramatically over the past decade and their applications in toxicity prediction and risk assessment are of critical importance. The integration of predictive toxicology approaches will become increasingly necessary as industrial chemicals advance and as new pharmaceuticals enter the market. In this comprehensive discussion of predictive toxicology and its applications, leading experts express their views on the technologies currently available and the potential for future developments. The book covers a wide range of topics including in silico, in vitro and in vivo approaches that are being used in the safety assessment of chemical substances. It reflects the growing and urgent need to strengthen and improve our ability to predict the safety and risks posed by industrial and pharmaceutical chemicals in humans. The reader will find extensive information on the use of current animal models used for various toxicities and target mediated toxicities. Also discussed are the recent regulatory initiatives to improve the safety assessment of chemicals. The book provides an expert and comprehensive discussion on the current status and future directions of predictive toxicology and its application. The various chapters in the book also reflect the growing need for improvements in our technologies and abilities to predict toxicities of pharmaceutical and industrial chemicals to ensure product safety and protect public health.

As the human population grows—tripling in the past century while, simultaneously, quadrupling its demand for water—Earth's finite freshwater supplies are increasingly strained, and also increasingly contaminated by domestic, agricultural, and industrial wastes. Today, approximately one-third of the world's population lives in areas with scarce water resources. Nearly one billion people currently lack access to an adequate water supply, and more than twice as many lack access to basic sanitation services. It is projected that by 2025 water scarcity will affect nearly two-thirds of all people on the planet. Recognizing that water availability, water quality, and sanitation are fundamental issues underlying infectious disease emergence and spread, the Institute of Medicine held a two-day public workshop, summarized in this volume. Through invited presentations and discussions, participants explored global and local connections between water, sanitation, and health; the spectrum of water-related disease transmission processes as they inform intervention design; lessons learned from water-related disease outbreaks; vulnerabilities in water and sanitation infrastructure in both industrialized and developing countries; and opportunities to improve water and sanitation infrastructure so as to reduce the risk of water-related infectious disease.

Recent scientific advances have made it possible to produce biopharmaceuticals in genetically modified plants and animals, such as maize, tobacco, goats, and chickens. This new branch of biotechnology is termed pharming, composed of the terms pharmaceuticals and farming. Pharming constitutes an overlap of red and green biotechnology. It offers the prospect of a quicker, cheaper, and more flexible production of biopharmaceuticals compared with current production processes. This is a promising perspective in light of the rapidly growing market of biopharmaceuticals, although the economic competitiveness of pharming remains to be proven. Besides possible benefits for producers, patients and health care systems, pharming also raises a number of complex ecological, social, moral and legal questions that have as yet not been thoroughly discussed. The present book contains the findings of an interdisciplinary research project that has addressed a large range of questions associated with pharming: An analysis of the state-of-the-art of plant pharming and animal pharming technologies is followed by an assessment of environmental risks related to pharming and welfare risks for pharming animals. Public views and attitudes to pharming are investigated on the basis of a comprehensive survey in 15 countries. Moreover, ethical and legal questions, posed by present and foreseeable future practices of pharming, are analysed. The concluding chapter presents the authors'main findings and recommendations, addressed to science, industry, politics and general public interested in the chances and risks of this upcoming field of biotechnology.

The process of genetic counseling involves many key components, such as taking a family genetic history, making a diagnosis, and providing communication and support to the family. Among these core processes is the mathematical calculation of the actual risk of a possible genetic disorder. For most physicians and counselors, the mathematics and statistics involved can be major challenge which is not always helped by complex computer programs or lengthy papers full of elaborate formulae. In this clear, reader-friendly guide, Ian Young addresses this problem and demonstrates how risk can be estimated for inherited disorders using a basic knowledge of the laws of probability and their application to clinical problems. The text employs a wealth of clearly explained examples and key points in order to guide the reader to an accurate assessment of the risk of genetic disease. It primarily will appeal to genetic counselors, geneticists, and all those involved in providing medical genetic services. In this new edition, Dr. Young has pruned redundancies and extensively updated the concepts in each of the 10 chapters, and he has included more working examples, a popular feature of the book.

For more than two decades, the practice of risk assessment has been applied to human public health issues, and policy makers have used the results of risk assessments in their decision-making process. Approaches for risk assessment have been developed for nonnutrients such as drugs, food additives, and pesticides, but approaches for risk assessment have received less attention in the nutrition area. Some aspects of the risk assessment approach used for nonnutrients are applicable to the assessment of risks related to nutrition. The overall approach, however, must be adapted and modified to take into account the unique aspects of nutrients, including the fact that both high and low nutrient intakes are associated with risk. Experience with the application of a risk assessment process to the setting of upper levels of intake for essential nutrients, for example, has uncovered a number of challenges. Adapting and developing risk assessment strategies for application in nutrition science could lead to improved approaches to the development of dietary and nutritional recommendations and thus is a topic of considerable interest. One nonscientific but overall challenge to nutritional risk assessment relates to increasing and improving communication among experts from key disciplines in ways that could inform the nutritional risk assessment process. Among these key disciplines are nutrition, toxicology, dietary exposure assessment, economics, risk analysis, and epidemiology. How can the perspectives and methods of these diverse fields be brought together to develop more effective approaches for quantitative nutritional risk assessment? How can they be applied to a spectrum of topics related to food and nutrition—micronutrients, macronutrients, dietary supplements, whole foods, food groups, and dietary patterns? How can they help overcome the data challenges that confront nutritional risk assessors? As a step toward improving the communication and sharing methods and information across disciplines, members of the Interagency Risk Assessment Consortium, the U.S. Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, the Institute of Medicine's Food Forum, and the International Life Sciences Institute planned the Nutritional Risk Assessment Workshop. The workshop was held on February 28 and March 1, 2007, in Washington, D.C. This workshop, which was envisioned as one in a series, focused on opening a dialogue to explore the unique questions and challenges faced by nutritionists and the potential use of risk assessment methodologies to answer them. Nutritional Risk Assessment : Perspectives, Methods, and Data Challenges, Workshop Summary summarizes the happenings of this workshop.

Enterobacter sakazakii and Salmonella are the primary pathogens of concern with regard to powdered infant formula. Guidance for the control of these hazards is currently being developed by Codex Alimentarius through the revision of the Recommended International Code of Hygienic Practices for Foods for Infants and Children. FAO and WHO are providing the scientific advice to facilitate this work. FAO and WHO implemented the first meeting on this issue in 2004, the outcome of which is reported in number six of this series. This report builds on the information and advice provided in 2004.

Contamination of water supplies and the immediate availability of appropriate emergency responses to chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) events which result in contaminated water are becoming increasingly relevant and significant issues in the water industry and in the wider world. Consequently, new strategies and technologies are being constantly evolved and refined by leading experts in the field in order to achieve rapid and effective responses to water contamination events. Water Contamination Emergencies: Enhancing our Response brings together contributions from leading scientists and experts from both academia and industry in the field of water contamination and emergency planning. The book covers a wide range of topics including responses to water contamination emergencies, impacts on public health and commerce, risk assessment, analysis and monitoring, emergency planning, control and planning and threats to the water industry. This book is ideal for specialists in the field of water contamination and emergency response planning, especially researchers and professionals in industry and government who require an authoritative and highly specialised resource on water contamination management. The reader will gain an appreciation of the activities supporting the development of responses to contamination events; emergency actions required in response to the contamination of drinking water; and incident management. Also discussed are the importance of communication between organisations and the public; consumer perceptions and the need for robust and rapid screening of samples taken in response to potential contamination events in order to help answer the key question'Is this water safe to drink?'

Health effects are often overlooked when planning development projects ranging from new runways at major airport sites to developing water supply systems to improve sanitation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is the assessment of the health effects, positive or negative, of a project, programme, or policy. It is therefore concerned with the health of populations and attempts to predict the future consequences for health of decisions which have not yet been implemented. HIA is a new and growing field with numerous schools of thought and areas of controversy. This book is the first to give a comprehensive overview of the concepts, theory, techniques and applications of HIA to aid all those preparing projects or carrying out assessments. It draws on examples and thinking from many different disciplines and many parts of the world. It identifies the areas of agreement and the questions remaining unanswered. It maps a confused field and signposts possible directions for future progress. HIA is intended to help decision makers in all areas foresee the consequences of their decisions, to ensure the consequences are considered and reduce the risk of population health being damaged through some indirect and unintended consequence of a decision. This book is a practical handbook for those preparing the assessments be they epidemiologists, environmentalists, health economists or public health specialists as well as serving as a conceptual guide for policy makers, decision makers and planners at national and international level. This book will serve both as a reference for the established HIA practitioner and as an introduction for the novice.

This book explores how the dualities of thinking in engineering and science are manifested in probability and risk analysis, professional judgment, and the nature of expertise. Written from a geotechnical perspective, these topics are woven into professional practice through examples and case studies, and through the lives, careers, and lasting achievements of some legendary civil engineering experts. By examining the cognitive process that underlie the whole of engineering, this work brings new substance to engineering judgment, showing in the process how probability, judgmemnt, and expertise are inextricably linked as indispensable elements of professional practice, and indeed of thinking itself.

Solid waste management issues are a highly emotive topic. Disposal costs need to be balanced against environmental impact, which often results in heated public debate. Disposal options such as incineration and landfill, whilst unpopular with both the public and environmental pressure groups, do not pose the same environmental and health risks as, for example, recycling plants. This book, written by international experts, discusses the various waste disposal options that are available (landfill, incineration, composting, recycling) and then reviews their impact on the environment, and particularly on human health. Comprehensive and highly topical, Environmental and Health Impact of Solid Waste Management Activities will make a strong contribution to scientific knowledge in the area, and will be of value to scientists and policy-makers in particular.

Adolescents obviously do not always act in ways that serve their own best interests, even as defined by them. Sometimes their perception of their own risks, even of survival to adulthood, is larger than the reality; in other cases, they underestimate the risks of particular actions or behaviors. It is possible, indeed likely, that some adolescents engage in risky behaviors because of a perception of invulnerability—the current conventional wisdom of adults'views of adolescent behavior. Others, however, take risks because they feel vulnerable to a point approaching hopelessness. In either case, these perceptions can prompt adolescents to make poor decisions that can put them at risk and leave them vulnerable to physical or psychological harm that may have a negative impact on their long-term health and viability. A small planning group was formed to develop a workshop on reconceptualizing adolescent risk and vulnerability. With funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Workshop on Adolescent Risk and Vulnerability: Setting Priorities took place on March 13, 2001, in Washington, DC. The workshop's goal was to put into perspective the total burden of vulnerability that adolescents face, taking advantage of the growing societal concern for adolescents, the need to set priorities for meeting adolescents'needs, and the opportunity to apply decision-making perspectives to this critical area. This report summarizes the workshop.

To date, the majority of HIV/AIDS research has concentrated on education and prevention for those with a seronegative status, while studies of HIV positive individuals have been concerned with their potential to infect others. The Endangered Self however, focuses on how the discovery of an HIV positive status affects the individual's sense of identity, on the experience of living with HIV and its effects on the individual's social relationships. In this comparative study of the UK and US, Green and Sobo explore identity change and the stigma attached to an HIV positive status within the context of the sociology of risk. Chapters discuss issues such as:•identity, social risk and AIDS•stigma•living and coping with HIV•the danger of disclosure•reported reactions in health care settings and sexual settings•risk and reality•seropositivity.The Endangered Self will be of interest to all those infected with HIV and to their families, partners, friends and caregivers who are affected by it. It will be essential reading for health-care professionals and those studying medical anthropology, sociology and health and risk studies.

The medical use of marijuana is surrounded by a cloud of social, political, and religious controversy, which obscures the facts that should be considered in the debate. This book summarizes what we know about marijuana from evidence-based medicine—the harm it may do and the relief it may bring to patients. The book helps the reader understand not only what science has to say about medical marijuana but also the logic behind the scientific conclusions. Marijuana and Medicine addresses the science base and the therapeutic effects of marijuana use for medical conditions such as glaucoma and multiple sclerosis. It covers marijuana's mechanism of action, acute and chronic effects on health and behavior, potential adverse effects, efficacy of different delivery systems, analysis of the data about marijuana as a gateway drug, and the prospects for developing cannabinoid drugs. The book evaluates how well marijuana meets accepted standards for medicine and considers the conclusions of other blue-ribbon panels. Full of useful facts, this volume will be important to anyone interested in informed debate about the medical use of marijuana: advocates and opponents as well as policymakers, regulators, and health care providers.

Essays discuss legal and moral issues of surrogate motherhood.